Tropical Cyclone Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
244 WTPZ45 KNHC 080837 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Octave Discussion Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152025 200 AM PDT Wed Oct 08 2025 Satellite imagery indicates that Octave continues to produce small bursts of deep convection, with a new area of convection redeveloping south of the low-level circulation center during the past few hours. Overall, the cyclone remains sheared and poorly organized, with the low-level center partially exposed on the northeastern edge of the convection. Since the overnight ASCAT pass did not sample the circulation center, the initial intensity is set at 35 kt, which represents a blend of the subjective Dvorak and objective satellite estimates. The initial motion is toward the east, or 080 degrees, at around 9 kt, and this motion is expected to continue through the morning hours today. A turn toward the northeast is expected later today into Thursday as Octave moves south of Hurricane Priscilla and near another developing system (EP90) to its southeast, located near the southwest coast of Mexico. This forecast track is very similar to the previous NHC advisory and represents a blend of the consensus aids and the Google DeepMind guidance. Although the current intensity is estimated at 35 kt, this value may be somewhat generous given the recent degradation in Octaves satellite presentation under strengthening easterly shear. Simulated satellite imagery from the global models indicates that intermittent bursts of convection should continue through the day today before diminishing thereafter. Thus, the new NHC forecast now shows the system becoming a post-tropical remnant low in 24 hours, and dissipating by 48 hours. The intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and lies near the middle portion of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 15.2N 117.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 15.5N 115.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 16.6N 113.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 09/1800Z 17.4N 109.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)