Tropical Cyclone Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
545 WTPZ45 KNHC 071436 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Octave Discussion Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152025 800 AM PDT Tue Oct 07 2025 Octave is maintaining some clusters of deep convection primarily over the western portions of its circulation. However, convective banding features are mostly lacking. There is some limited upper-level outflow over the southern semicircle of the system. The estimated intensity is held at 45 kt for this advisory, although this might be generous given the satellite appearance of the storm and an earlier scatterometer overpass. The cyclone center is estimated to be near the southeastern side of the main area of deep convection, with an initial motion of around 110/6 kt. Octave is currently embedded within a broad area of low- to mid-level westerlies, and this should maintain a mainly eastward motion for the next day or so. Later, the system should move east-northeastward as it becomes partially entrained into the large circulation of Hurricane Priscilla centered several hundred miles to its east-northeast. The official forecast is close to the previous one and in good agreement with the simple and corrected consensus track model guidance. Easterly vertical wind shear is expected to increase over Octave, and the low-level circulation of the storm should become increasingly disrupted by the influence of Priscilla. So, although the system should remain over marginally warm SSTs during the next few days, the upper- and lower-level flow environment is likely to become less conducive during the next 48 hours. Octave is forecast to weaken to dissipation in 60-72 hours. This is similar to the previous official forecast and the model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 15.7N 119.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 15.3N 118.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 15.3N 116.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 15.9N 114.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 17.0N 112.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 10/0000Z 17.9N 110.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch