952
WTPZ45 KNHC 050833
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Octave Discussion Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152025
200 AM PDT Sun Oct 05 2025

Satellite imagery indicates that Octave remains a compact tropical
cyclone, with the diameter of its central dense overcast (CDO) near
150 miles. Intermittent bursts of deep convection continue near the
embedded center, with cloud-top temperatures occasionally exceeding
80 degrees C. Subjective Dvorak Current Intensity estimates are
4.0/65 kt from TAFB and 3.5/55 kt from SAB, while objective
estimates are as high as 60 kt. An ASCAT-B pass at 0534 UTC
depicted the small and compact system, with peak surface winds just
over 50 kt and tropical-storm-force winds extending only about 60 n
mi from the center. A blend of these data supports an initial
intensity of 60 kt for this advisory.

Octave is now moving slowly north-northeastward at about 3 kt, and
this motion is expected to continue today while the storm gradually
turns northeastward within a weak steering pattern between an
upper-level trough along the U.S. West Coast and Tropical Cyclone
Priscilla, which is drifting northwestward well to the east off the
southwestern coast of Mexico. Beginning Monday, Octave should turn
eastward and gradually accelerate. By midweek, forecast uncertainty
increases significantly as Octave becomes increasingly influenced by
Priscillas evolution and track. The new NHC forecast track is very
similar to the previous advisory and closely follows the consensus
aids, with Octave expected to dissipate by day 5 (Thursday night) as
it becomes absorbed by the larger Tropical Cyclone Priscilla.

Octave has intensified slightly since the previous advisory, and
with the environment remaining marginally conducive for the next 12
to 18 hours, some additional strengthening cannot be ruled out.
Guidance, however, generally supports the intensity holding steady
during this period, which is reflected in this forecast through the
day today. Thereafter, increasing vertical wind shear, combined with
the interaction with Priscilla, should induce a gradual weakening
trend. Octave is forecast to open up into a trough and be absorbed
by Priscilla by the end of the forecast period. The intensity
forecast remains close to the previous NHC advisory and near the
middle to upper portion of the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/0900Z 15.6N 124.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  05/1800Z 15.9N 123.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  06/0600Z 16.1N 122.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  06/1800Z 16.1N 121.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  07/0600Z 15.9N 120.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  07/1800Z 15.5N 119.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  08/0600Z 15.3N 118.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  09/0600Z 16.3N 115.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  10/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)