248
WTPZ45 KNHC 042040
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Octave Discussion Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152025
200 PM PDT Sat Oct 04 2025

Deep convection has continued to pulse today near the center of
Octave. Recent visible and microwave satellite imagery indicates a
well-organized inner-core structure, which was confirmed by a recent
ASCAT scatterometer pass. Based on the current satellite
presentation and a blend of subjective and objective satellite
intensity estimates, the intensity is increased slightly to 55 kt
for this advisory.

The storm has begun to turn more northward and is now moving
north-northwestward with an estimated motion of 330/5 kt. A
continued northward and eventual eastward turn is forecast this
weekend and early next week. The track forecast depends somewhat on
the interaction of Octave with Tropical Storm Priscilla to its east
and a trough to its north during the next several days. The NHC
track forecast for this advisory is similar to the prior advisory
and represents a blend of track consensus aids and the Google
DeepMind solution.

Vertical wind shear is expected to remain weak for the next 24 h.
During this period, conditions are forecast to remain marginally
favorable for some slight intensification. However, after 24 h as
Octave turns toward the east, wind shear is expected to increase as
the storm interacts with trough and the larger tropical storm to
its east. Late this weekend, Octave is forecast to begin a
weakening trend that will continue until the system dissipates
after 96 h. The current NHC intensity forecast is slightly higher
than the prior advisory during the next day or so, and it remains
near the middle of the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/2100Z 14.9N 123.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  05/0600Z 15.3N 124.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  05/1800Z 15.7N 123.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  06/0600Z 15.9N 122.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  06/1800Z 16.0N 121.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  07/0600Z 15.8N 120.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  07/1800Z 15.5N 119.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  08/1800Z 15.3N 116.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  09/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hogsett