477
FOPZ15 KNHC 152039
PWSEP5

TROPICAL STORM ELIDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052026
2100 UTC WED JUL 15 2026

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELIDA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT

15N 115W       34 79   X(79)   X(79)   X(79)   X(79)   X(79)   X(79)
15N 115W       50  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

15N 120W       34  X   1( 1)   8( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)

20N 120W       34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  11(13)   2(15)   X(15)   X(15)

20N 125W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  44(45)   8(53)   X(53)
20N 125W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  15(15)   7(22)   X(22)
20N 125W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)

25N 125W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   2(10)

25N 130W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  14(16)
25N 130W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

$$
FORECASTER KATZ/PAPIN