406
WTPZ44 KNHC 110239
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Norbert Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142026
500 PM HST Thu Sep 10 2026

Norbert continues to show a shear pattern on satellite imagery,
with the center located on the western edge of a strong and growing
area of convection.  Objective satellite estimates are higher than
the last advisory, so the initial intensity is nudged upward to 45
kt.  Only slow strengthening is anticipated for the next few
days while Norbert experiences light-to-moderate westerly shear
over warm waters, though close to some dry mid-level air.  Thus,
Norbert will likely have some challenges developing an inner core,
probably preventing any rapid changes in the near-term.  Model
guidance is higher than the last cycle overall, and the new
intensity forecast is raised slightly from the previous one.  The
long-range intensity is a challenge given the large latitudinal
spread in the track guidance as well as the possibility of
increasing shear.

The tropical storm`s motion remains westward at 12 kt.  A mid-
level ridge over the eastern Pacific is forecast to build westward
in tandem with Norbert during the next few days, keeping the
cyclone moving westward to west-northwestward.  A south-of-west
track is possible by next week, depending on the future orientation
of the ridge and the position of Norbert.  The ECMWF has been
showing this west-southwest motion for a few runs now, and with the
Google DeepMind now in closer agreement, the official forecast is
shifted southward at long range.  Otherwise few changes were made
to the previous forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/0300Z 16.4N 121.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  11/1200Z 16.5N 123.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  12/0000Z 16.6N 126.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  12/1200Z 16.9N 128.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  13/0000Z 17.4N 129.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  13/1200Z 17.9N 131.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  14/0000Z 18.1N 133.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  15/0000Z 18.3N 137.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  16/0000Z 17.5N 142.0W   60 KT  70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake