861
WTPZ44 KNHC 090233
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092025
800 PM MST Fri Aug 08 2025

After gaining some strength earlier today, Ivo`s intensity appears
to have leveled off again. The compact storm is still producing a
concentrated area of deep convection, but the cloud tops have been
warming over the past several hours. In addition, dry air appears to
be eroding some of the outer bands. The initial intensity is held at
55 kt, which is in line with the latest satellite intensity
estimates.

Ivo could strengthen a little later tonight or early Saturday, but a
weakening trend should begin shortly thereafter as the storm moves
over progressively cooler waters and into a drier air mass. The
NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous one, and
now shows Ivo becoming a post-tropical cyclone in a couple of days
when it is anticipated to be over cool 23 to 24 C waters.

The storm is moving westward at about 10 kt. The track forecast
appears straightforward as Ivo should being steered westward to
west-northwestward on the south side of a low- to mid-level ridge
during the next few days. This motion should take the system away
from the Baja California peninsula and over the open eastern
Pacific. The NHC track forecast follows the various consensus
models, and is a touch to the north of the previous track.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/0300Z 20.5N 112.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  09/1200Z 20.7N 113.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  10/0000Z 21.0N 114.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  10/1200Z 21.5N 116.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  11/0000Z 21.9N 118.6W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 60H  11/1200Z 22.1N 120.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  12/0000Z 22.1N 123.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi