613
WTPZ44 KNHC 102032
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092025
200 PM PDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Even over waters of 23-24 degrees Celsius, Ivo is managing to
maintain a persistent area of deep convection.  A recent ASCAT pass
showed maximum winds of 30 kt.  Accounting for the instrument`s
sampling limitations, and combined with satellite estimates still
running around 35 kt, it is estimated that Ivo is hanging on to
tropical storm status.  Sea surface temperatures drop by another 2-3
degrees along Ivo`s forecast track, so weakening is expected to
resume tonight, and simulated satellite images from the GFS and
ECMWF show that deep convection could finally be gone by Monday
morning.  Degeneration into a remnant low is forecast by 24 hours,
followed by dissipation into a trough in 60 hours.

Ivo is moving west-northwestward (285 deg) at 10 kt.  This motion
should continue for the next 12 hours, followed by a slight bend to
the west in 24 hours as Ivo stays situated to the south of the low-
to mid-level ridge.  The track models are tightly clustered, and
the new NHC forecast is mainly an update of the previous
prediction.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/2100Z 22.1N 117.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  11/0600Z 22.5N 118.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  11/1800Z 22.8N 120.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  12/0600Z 22.9N 123.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  12/1800Z 22.9N 125.3W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg