846
WTPZ43 KNHC 060233
TCDEP3

Hurricane Marie Discussion Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132026
800 PM PDT Sat Sep 05 2026

The eye of Marie has become increasingly ragged and misshapen over
the past few hours, while cloud tops in its center have begun to
cool. A recent GPM GMI microwave pass from earlier this evening
depicted a vertically aligned cyclone, but the eyewall remained
poorly defined along the western and southwestern sides. Objective
and subjective Dvorak intensity estimates range from 77-94 kt.
However, given the degradation in structure, the initial intensity
is set at 80 kt for this advisory.

Marie is moving northwestward around 6 kt, steered by a strong
mid-level ridge anchored over the central United States. This
general motion is forecast to continue through Sunday. As Marie
weakens and becomes more shallow, a turn back toward the
west-northwest is forecast as the cyclone becomes increasingly
steered by the low-level flow. By midweek, a closed low moving
southward along the U.S. West Coast is expected to induce an
acceleration toward the northwestward, followed by a turn toward the
north.

Environmental conditions are expected to gradually become less
favorable over the next couple days as Marie moves over cooler sea
surface temperatures, resulting in slow weakening into early next
week. More rapid weakening is anticipated thereafter as increasing
wind shear decouples the cyclone and displaces any remaining
convection well to the north of its center. The latest NHC forecast
calls for Marie to become a post-tropical remnant low by 96 h,
followed by dissipation by 120 h. The NHC track and intensity
forecasts are very close to the HCCA and Google DeepMind consensus
aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/0300Z 22.6N 121.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  06/1200Z 23.2N 122.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  07/0000Z 24.0N 122.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  07/1200Z 24.6N 124.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  08/0000Z 25.2N 125.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  08/1200Z 26.1N 126.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  09/0000Z 27.5N 127.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  10/0000Z 31.4N 129.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  11/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Adams