Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
650 WTPZ32 KNHC 050859 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Lorena Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122025 200 AM PDT Fri Sep 05 2025 ...LORENA DEGENERATES TO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA... ...MOST IMPORTANTLY, THE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND SONORA THROUGH TODAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.5N 115.0W ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM W OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Baja California Sur and Sonora, Mexico, should continue to monitor the risk of heavy rainfall and flash flooding associated with Lorena. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Lorena was located near latitude 24.5 North, longitude 115.0 West. The post-tropical cyclone is currently nearly stationary. A slow north-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected through early Saturday, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and the remnant low is expected to dissipate by late Sunday or Sunday night. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC. RAINFALL: Bands of heavy rainfall will continue to impact Baja California Sur and Sonora Mexico through today. Additional rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches, with maximum storm total amounts of 12 inches, are possible across portions of Baja California Sur, far southeast Baja California, southwestern Sonora, and northern Sinaloa through tonight. This will bring the risk of life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of higher terrain. Elsewhere across Mexico, 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated totals up to 6 inches, are expected across the remainder of Sonora. These amounts will lead to isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding. Across the southwestern United States, 1 to 2 inches of rain, with isolated totals up to 4 inches, are expected across portions of Arizona and New Mexico through Saturday, bringing the potential for isolated to scattered flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Lorena, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will continue affecting portions of the west coast of Baja California Sur through today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last advisory on Lorena by the National Hurricane Center. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php Rainfall forecasts for the United States can be found at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml and outlooks of flash flood risks can be found at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php For rainfall forecasts in northwestern Mexico, please see products from the Meteorological Service of Mexico. $$ Forecaster Beven