Tropical Cyclone Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
631 WTPZ42 KNHC 021435 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Gil Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072025 500 AM HST Sat Aug 02 2025 Gil is weakening as the center is now over sea surface temperatures near 25C. Satellite imagery shows that the associated convection is decreasing and becoming asymmetric, with little convection left in the western semicircle. Objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates are now trending downward, and based on this Gil is downgraded to a tropical storm with 60-kt winds. The initial motion is 295/17. Gil is being steered by a strong mid-level ridge to the north, and a generally west-northwestward motion should continue for the next day or two. After that, a more westward motion is expected as the cyclone weakens and becomes increasingly steered by the low-level flow. There is little change in the track guidance from the previous advisory, and the new forecast track is similar to the previous track. Gil should continue weakening as it moves over cooler waters and into a drier air mass. The latest simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF models suggests the cyclone should stop producing convection at around 36 h, and thus the intensity forecast again indicates post-tropical status at that time. While the sea surface temperatures increase along the forecast track after 36 h, increasing westerly shear and dry air entraining should keep the cyclone or its remnants weakening. The new forecast follows the previous forecast in showing dissipation between 96-120 h, which is in agreement with the global models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 18.3N 128.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 19.3N 131.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 20.6N 133.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 21.6N 136.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 04/1200Z 22.3N 139.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 05/0000Z 22.7N 141.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/1200Z 23.0N 144.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/1200Z 23.8N 149.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven