Marine/Aviation Tropical Cyclone Advisory
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203
WTPZ21 KNHC 070854
TCMEP1

HURRICANE PRISCILLA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162025
0900 UTC TUE OCT 07 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 109.5W AT 07/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT   9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  967 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE  45SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 70NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT.......160NE 140SE 130SW 150NW.
4 M SEAS....210NE 375SE 210SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 109.5W AT 07/0900Z
AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 109.0W

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 20.0N 110.4W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 45NE  45SE  25SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 20.9N 111.8W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  25SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 110SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 21.9N 113.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  25SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 23.0N 114.2W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE  90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 24.3N 115.1W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  80SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 25.5N 115.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 27.7N 115.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 30.5N 114.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 109.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 07/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART