892
WTPZ21 KNHC 052041
TCMEP1

HURRICANE PRISCILLA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162025
2100 UTC SUN OCT 05 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 107.1W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT   3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT.......  0NE  35SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  45SE  40SW   0NW.
34 KT.......150NE 140SE 110SW 120NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 107.1W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 107.0W

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 16.8N 107.3W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  25SE  20SW  15NW.
50 KT... 45NE  55SE  45SW  30NW.
34 KT...170NE 140SE 120SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 17.7N 108.1W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 55NE  55SE  45SW  35NW.
34 KT...160NE 130SE 120SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 18.6N 109.1W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  30SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  55SE  50SW  40NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 110SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 19.5N 110.4W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  35SE  30SW  25NW.
50 KT... 65NE  60SE  55SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 110SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 20.4N 111.7W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  35SE  30SW  35NW.
50 KT... 65NE  65SE  55SW  55NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 100SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 21.4N 113.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  55SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE  90SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 23.6N 115.4W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  70SW  80NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 25.4N 116.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE   0SE   0SW  70NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 107.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 06/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN