896
WTPZ41 KNHC 291441
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Flossie Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062025
900 AM CST Sun Jun 29 2025

Convection has continued to become better organized this morning,
with curved banding to the north of the low-level center. Recent
infrared satellite imagery depicts that convection is bursting near
the low-level center with cold cloud tops near -80C. The latest
subjective Dvorak intensity estimates were T2.5, from both TAFB and
SAB. Using these estimates and the recent satellite trends, the
intensity is raised to 35 kt for this advisory. Thus, the sixth
named system in the eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Flossie.

Flossie is located within a favorable environment for strengthening
with warm SSTs near 30C, moist mid-levels and low to moderate wind
shear. As the system continues to become better organized, the
latest NHC forecast now depicts steady strengthening, with the storm
becoming a hurricane in about 36 h. While not explicitly forecast,
there are some above normal SHIPS rapid intensification (RI)
probabilities and there is potential for RI, which will have to be
monitored in subsequent forecasts. The NHC intensity forecast
remains near the higher end of the guidance envelope near the latest
HCCA corrected consensus aids.

The current motion is estimated to be westward around 280/8 kt,
although as the inner core continues to develop there could be some
short-term track adjustments. The storm is forecast to begin to move
west-northwestward later today then northwestward around the western
periphery of a subtropical ridge. The latest track forecast is
nudged slightly to the right, in between the simple consensus HCCA
corrected consensus.

Residents of Mexico should stay updated on the latest forecast.  A
track even a little more to the right of the official forecast could
bring more significant impacts to the coast of southwestern Mexico.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. The outer bands of Tropical Storm Flossie may bring locally heavy
rainfall to the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacn,
Colima and Jalisco through early next week. Life-threatening
flooding and mudslides are possible, particularly in areas of steep
terrain.

2. A tropical storm watch is in effect for southwestern Mexico, and
tropical storm warnings could be required later today or tonight for
a portion of the coast of southern Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/1500Z 13.4N  99.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  30/0000Z 14.1N 100.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  30/1200Z 15.2N 102.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  01/0000Z 16.3N 103.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  01/1200Z 17.5N 105.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  02/0000Z 18.7N 107.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  02/1200Z 19.8N 108.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  03/1200Z 21.7N 110.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  04/1200Z 23.9N 112.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Kelly