132
WTPZ41 KNHC 020252
TCDEP1

Hurricane Flossie Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062025
800 PM MST Tue Jul 01 2025

After briefly filling, the ragged eye of Flossie has reappeared on
geostationary satellite imagery.  An SSMIS microwave satellite image
from 0133 UTC showed that the northern eyewall was slightly eroded.
Since then, infrared satellite observations have shown continuous
deep convective bursts in the northeastern quadrant. Objective and
subjective satellite intensity estimates range between 90 to 107
kts.  The initial intensity is nudged up to 100 kt based on a blend
of these estimates.

Flossie has about a 12-24 hour window to strengthen in conducive
environmental conditions.  Thereafter, global models suggest drier
air and moderate vertical wind sheer could beginning disrupting the
circulation on Wednesday.  These conditions should coincide with
the storm crossing the 26 degree isotherm and moving over cooler
waters which should hasten weakening.  Flossie is now forecast to
become a post-tropical cyclone in 48 h.

The hurricane is moving west-northwestward at 8 kt.  The track
forecast reasoning has not changed.  Flossie should continue moving
west-northwestward or northwestward toward a weakness in the
subtropical ridge for the next few days.  As the system becomes more
shallow, it should gradually turn westward in the low-level flow.
Only minor changes have been made to the latest official forecast.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Outer bands of Hurricane Flossie continue to bring locally heavy
rainfall to coastal portions of the Mexican states of Michoacn,
Colima, and Jalisco into Wednesday. Localized flash flooding is
possible.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
tropical storm warning area in southwestern Mexico for the next few
hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/0300Z 18.2N 107.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  02/1200Z 18.9N 108.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
 24H  03/0000Z 19.8N 109.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  03/1200Z 20.6N 111.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  04/0000Z 21.5N 112.3W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 60H  04/1200Z 22.5N 113.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  05/0000Z 23.3N 115.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  06/0000Z 24.0N 118.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  07/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci