870
WTPZ41 KNHC 010836
TCDEP1

Hurricane Karina Discussion Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112026
1100 PM HST Mon Aug 31 2026

Karina is maintaining a well-defined eye surrounded by very deep
convection with cloud tops to -80 deg C or even colder.  Subjective
Dvorak estimates indicate that the hurricane is maintaining its
intensity.  In fact, the objective satellite consensus intensity
estimate, SATCON, from UW-CIMSS suggests that Karina has become
slightly stronger with an estimated maximum wind speed near 120 kt
for this advisory.  There is not much evidence of concentric
eyewalls at this time, and Karina still has some potential to become
an annular hurricane.

The estimated motion continues to be west-northwestward, or
285/9 kt.  A narrow mid-tropospheric subtropical ridge to the north
of Karina should keep the system on a west-northwestward to westward
track at about the same forward speed through 72 hours or so.  By
days 4-5 a weak mid-level low to the north of the Hawaiian Islands
should induce a slightly more northwestward motion.  The official
track forecast is similar to the previous one, and is close to the
simple model consensus.  The corrected consensus is a little north
of the NHC track in the latter part of the forecast period.

Karina is likely to remain over marginally warm ocean waters with
low vertical wind shear for the next couple of days.  This should
keep the system as a major hurricane through the next 36 hours or
so.  Although a slightly drier low- to mid-level air mass and
gradually cooling SSTs should result in slow weakening, Karina
could maintain its intensity more than expected if it takes on an
annular structure.  The official intensity forecast is similar to
the model consensus and on the high side of the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/0900Z 18.0N 127.9W  120 KT 140 MPH
 12H  01/1800Z 18.5N 129.3W  120 KT 140 MPH
 24H  02/0600Z 18.9N 131.3W  110 KT 125 MPH
 36H  02/1800Z 19.3N 133.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  03/0600Z 19.6N 135.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 60H  03/1800Z 19.9N 136.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  04/0600Z 20.2N 138.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  05/0600Z 20.8N 142.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  06/0600Z 22.4N 145.4W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch