Tropical Cyclone Probabilities
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026
FOPZ11 KNHC 080235
PWSEP1

HURRICANE PRISCILLA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162025
0300 UTC WED OCT 08 2025

AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PRISCILLA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT

PUNTA EUGENIA  34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   7(12)   X(12)   X(12)

P ABREOJOS     34  X   5( 5)   4( 9)   3(12)   4(16)   X(16)   X(16)

CABO SAN LUCAS 34 21   3(24)   1(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)

SAN JOSE CABO  34 12   4(16)   1(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)

LA PAZ         34  7   6(13)   2(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)

LORETO         34  3   4( 7)   2( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)

20N 110W       34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

ISLA SOCORRO   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

ISLA CLARION   34  4   3( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

20N 115W       34  9   6(15)   2(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)

25N 115W       34  4  12(16)  30(46)  14(60)   2(62)   X(62)   X(62)
25N 115W       50  X   X( X)   5( 5)   8(13)   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)
25N 115W       64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN