291
AXPZ20 KNHC 050932
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Oct 5 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0920 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Priscilla is centered near 16.1N 106.9W at
05/0900 UTC, moving northwest at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 991 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with
gusts to 65 kt. Peak seas are 19 ft near the center of the
storm. Numerous moderate to strong convection is from 13N to 20N
between 104W and 111W. Scattered moderate to strong convection in
spiral bands are elsewhere from 10N to 22N between 96W and 114W.
On the forecast track, the center of the system is expected to
move offshore of and parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico
through early this week. Additional strengthening is forecast
during the next 48 hours, and Priscilla is likely to become a
hurricane later today or tonight. Swells generated by Priscilla
are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and
will reach portions of the coast of west-central Mexico and the
southern Baja California peninsula by Monday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

Tropical Storm Octave is centered near 15.6N 124.1W at 05/0900
UTC, moving north-northeast at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 994 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with
gusts to 75 kt. Peak seas are near 20 ft. Numerous moderate to
strong convection is observed from 13N to 17N between 122W and
126W. Little change in strength is expected today, followed by a
gradual weakening trend beginning on Monday.

Please read the latest NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Octave and Priscilla NHC Forecasts/Advisories and Public
Advisories at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 07N87W to 11N97W, then
resumes SW of Octave from 11N128W to 09N140W. Aside from the
convection associated with Octave and Priscilla, scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 16N
between 78W and 95W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on
Tropical Storm Priscilla.

The SW Mexican offshore waters from Jalisco to Guerrero are
being affected by Tropical Storm Priscilla. Farther north, the
pressure gradient between both Tropical Storms Priscilla and
Octave, and a broad ridge extending eastward to the Baja
California Norte offshores is supporting moderate to locally fresh
NW winds and moderate seas to 7 ft in NW swell N of Cabo San
Lucas. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere in Tehuantepec and the
Gulf of California where seas are mainly slight, except moderate
in Tehuantepec S of 15N.

For the forecast, Priscilla will strengthen to a hurricane near
16.6N 107.2W this afternoon, move to 17.1N 107.6W Mon morning,
18.0N 108.4W Mon afternoon, 18.9N 109.4W Tue morning, 19.7N
110.7W Tue afternoon, and 20.5N 112.0W Wed morning. Priscilla
will change little in intensity as it moves near 22.3N 114.5W
early Thu. Elsewhere, a ridge will continue to dominate the
offshore forecast waters of Baja California today supporting
moderate to fresh NW to N winds N of Cabo San Lucas.

Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to form off
the southern coast of Mexico by midweek. Gradual development of
this system is likely thereafter, and a tropical depression could
form during the latter part of next week while moving west-
northwestward to northwestward, near or parallel to the coast of
Mexico. This system has a medium change of tropical cyclone
formation through 7 days.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Scattered heavy showers and tstms persist across the offshore
waters of Central America with scatterometer data showing fresh
to strong winds in the areas of strongest convection. Away from
the convection and N of the monsoon trough, winds are light to
gentle and seas moderate to 6 ft. South of the monsoon, winds
are mainly moderate from the S and SW and seas moderate to 6 ft
in SW swell.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected
south of the monsoon trough into Thu night. Southerly swell will
continue to propagate across the region through Thu night.
Looking ahead, winds may increase to fresh speeds across the
offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador as a low pressure
develops along the monsoon today and remain nearly stationary
before shifting westward to the Tehuantepec region Tue.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical
Storm Octave, and Tropical Storm Priscilla.

Outside of the Tropical Storms, a weak surface ridge dominates
the subtropical E Pacific waters to the west of 117W. A weak pressure
gradient between the weak ridge and the tropical storms is
supporting gentle to moderate NE to E winds N of 20N and W of
120W. Moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds are south of the
monsoon trough to 05N, between 90W and 130W.

For the forecast, Priscilla will strengthen to a hurricane near
16.6N 107.2W this afternoon, move to 17.1N 107.6W Mon morning,
18.0N 108.4W Mon afternoon, 18.9N 109.4W Tue morning, 19.7N
110.7W Tue afternoon, and 20.5N 112.0W Wed morning. Priscilla
will change little in intensity as it moves near 22.3N 114.5W
early Thu.

Octave will move to 15.9N 123.8W this afternoon, 16.1N 122.9W
Mon morning, 16.1N 121.9W Mon afternoon, 15.9N 120.7W Tue
morning, 15.5N 119.6W Tue afternoon, and 15.3N 118.4W Wed
morning. Octave will weaken to a tropical depression near 16.3N
115.4W early Thu.

Moderate or weaker winds are forecast elsewhere through Thu
night.

$$
Ramos