083
AXPZ20 KNHC 172035
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Aug 17 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2020 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 97W, N of 03N, moving west
at 10 to 15 kt. Nearby convection is described below in the
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 110W, from 03N to 17N,
moving west at 10-15 kt. Nearby convection is described below in
the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 136W, from 03N to 17N,
moving west at 10-15 kt. Nearby convection is described below in
the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 10N107W to 14N118W to
13N127W. The ITCZ extends from 13N127W to beyond 10N140W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N
to 09N between 80W and 90W, from 06N to 11N between 95W and
105W, from 07N to 13N between 114W and 119W, and from 10N to 14N
between 125W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Weak ridging extends from high pressure centered over the north-
central Pacific to near the southern tip of the Baja California
Peninsula, with a surface trough over the Gulf of California.
This pattern is supporting gentle to locally moderate NW breezes
and moderate seas off Baja California. Moderate to locally fresh
gap winds are over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Light to gentle
breezes and slight seas are noted elsewhere off southern Mexico.
Gentle winds and slight seas are over the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge west of
the Baja California peninsula and a trough over the Gulf of
California will support gentle to moderate NW winds with moderate
seas W of the Baja peninsula through the end of the week.
Farther south, fresh N gap winds will pulse tonight across the
Gulf of Tehuantepec. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas in
SW swell will persist across the remainder of the Mexican
offshore waters.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds dominate the offshore waters north of 05N
while gentle to moderate winds are noted south of 05N. Moderate
seas prevail across the discussion waters.

For the forecast, light to gentle winds will prevail across the
waters north of 05N through the week while gentle to moderate
winds are expected south of 05N. Cross- equatorial southerly
swell will propagate across the regional waters, keeping seas in
the moderate range, except in the lee of the Galapagos Islands
where slight seas are expected.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Ridging prevails north of 20N. The pressure gradient between this
area of high pressure along with lower pressure in the vicinity
of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to locally fresh trade winds
N of the ITCZ to 22N and west of 135W. Seas over these waters
are in the 6-8 ft range. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of
4-7 ft, prevail elsewhere N of the ITCZ/monsoon trough. Gentle to
moderate winds, and seas of 5-7 ft, prevail south of the
ITCZ/monsoon trough.

For the forecast, the ridge will remain in place through the
end of the week. Combined seas will be rough in pockets south of
10N and west of 130W before subsiding Mon. Another surge of
southerly swell south of the monsoon trough is expected between
115W and 135W by midweek. Little change is expected elsewhere.

$$
AL