198
AXPZ20 KNHC 111541
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Mar 11 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant Swell Event: A cold front reaches from 30N117W to
24N120W to 16N140W. Large swell of 12 to 17 ft follows the front
and extends north of 21N west of the front to 135W. The leading
edge of the 12 ft swell will reach Guadalupe Island this
afternoon, then cover most of the region off Baja California
Norte beyond 90 nm offshore by tonight. The swell will subside
below 12 ft Wed morning. Meanwhile large swell of 8 to 12 ft will
move into waters off Baja California through Wed. Looking ahead,
another significant swell event related to an upcoming cold
front will bring 12 to 15 ft swell the waters north of 24N and
west of 120W for Wed through Fri, with 12 ft or greater seas to
be north of 27N and west of about 127W.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from low pressure located in
northwest Colombia to 07N78W to 05N85W to 1011 mb low pressure
near 01S90W to 01S95W The ITCZ continues from 01S95W to 03N130W
to beyond 02N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
03N to 05N between 85W and 88W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

See the Special Features Section for details on a soon to expire
gale warning for the Significant Swell event.

1002 mb low pressure is centered near 31N122W, moving toward
southern California. An associated cold front reaches from
30N117W to 24N120W to 16N140W. NW swell follows the front, with 8
to 9 ft swell already reaching Guadalupe Island. Fresh to strong
SW winds and seas to 6 ft are noted ahead of the front over the
northern Gulf of California, with seas to 6 ft. Farther south,
fresh N gap winds linger across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, along
with seas to 9 ft. Gentle breezes and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted
elsewhere over open waters, and 1 to 3 ft over the central and
southern Gulf of California.

For the forecast, weakening low pressure is approaching extreme
southern California. Its associated cold front is approaching the
offshore waters of offshore Baja California Norte, with fresh to
locally strong southerly winds and seas to around 15 ft expected
to affect the waters north of Cabo San Lazaro into late tonight.
Strong south to southwest gap winds are over the northern Gulf
of California ahead of the approaching front. Large northwest
swell is currently reaching Guadalupe Island. It will reach off
Cabo San Lazaro by tonight, and the Revillagigedo Islands Wed,
before subsiding off Baja California late Wed night and Thu.
Looking ahead, another cold front will approach Baja California
Norte Thu accompanied by another round of northwest swell. This
swell will spread through the remainder Baja California waters
through Sat night while slowly decaying.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The earlier light volcanic ash emitted by the Fuego Volcano in
Guatemala at 14.3N 90.9W has dissipated over the waters southwest
of Guatemala, however, hazy conditions remain over and near
these same waters.

Otherwise, gentle to moderate northerly winds are in the gulfs
of Panama and Papagayo. Light to gentle winds and slight seas are
present elsewhere.

Satellite imagery shows scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection offshore Ecuador, reaching as far west as 90W.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh gap winds will pulse
nightly in the gulfs of Papagayo and Panama through the rest of
the week. Seas over the western Guatemala offshore waters
will subside tonight.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....

A weak subtropical ridge is maintaining fresh trades from about
05N to 16N west of 125W along with seas of 7 to 8 ft in a mix of
northwest swell and local wind generated seas. Gentle to
moderate winds persist elsewhere along with 5 to 7 ft seas
primarily due to long-period northwest swell.

For the forecast, a well-defined cold front as seen on satellite
imagery extends from near 30N119W to 21N125W and continues to
17N140W. This front will begin to weaken tonight as continues
east-southeastward. Another cold front is likely to bring fresh
to strong winds and very rough seas to the northern waters Wed
through Thu. The previously mentioned fresh trades will continue
west of about 118W between the monsoon trough and about 20N into
late week. Guidance suggests that strong trades will change
little through Wed. Model guidance indicates that trades then
become more pronounced going into the latter part of the week
along with building seas possibly reaching to around 11 ft in the
far western most waters.

$$
Christensen