527
AXPZ20 KNHC 210224
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri Nov 21 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Large NW swell over the northern waters:
A cold front extends from a gale force low N of the area into the
waters near 30N120W to 27N140W. The front will usher in a large
set of NW swell that was generated from this gale force low. Very
rough seas greater than 12 ft with wave periods of 12-14 seconds
will enter the northern waters N of 29N and W of 130W overnight.
Seas greater than 12 ft will then shift SE across the waters N of
26N and W of 117W through Sat before subsiding below 12 ft. Seas
will peak near 14 ft Fri afternoon and evening.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website-
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 09N85W to 06N99W to
08N114W. The ITCZ extends from 08N114W to 07N140W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted E of 85W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 08N between 133W
and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for details on a large
NW swell event.

Moderate to locally fresh winds are moving into the far outer
waters off Baja California Norte as a cold front is moving into
the area. Moderate winds also prevail S and SW of Cabo San Lucas,
as well as the entrance to the Gulf of California. Light to
gentle winds generally prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-7 ft
range west of the Baja California peninsula and southward to the
Revillagigedo Islands. Seas of 4-5 ft are elsewhere over the open
waters off Mexico. Seas are 3 ft or less over the Gulf of
California.

For the forecast, a cold front will enter the Baja California
Norte offshore waters tonight with moderate NW winds. A secondary
push of cold air accompanied by an area of low pressure will
quickly follow Fri night through Sat night, generating fresh NW
to W winds with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms west
of Baja California Norte. The front will usher in a set of large
NW swell, which will spread over the waters west of the baja
California peninsula, and southward to the Revillagigedo islands
through Mon before starting to subside. Fresh to strong N gap
winds can be expected over the Gulf of Tehuantepec from Sat night
to Sun night. Elsewhere, benign marine conditions are
anticipated.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh winds prevail over the Gulf of Papagayo, with
moderate winds extending downstream of the papagayo region. Light
to gentle winds are elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. Gentle to
moderate winds prevail S of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the
3-5 ft range, reaching 6 ft S of the Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds are expected
over and downstream of the Papagayo region into early next week.
Moderate or lighter winds are forecast elsewhere during the
forecast period.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section for details on a large
NW swell event.

A cold front extends from 30N120W to 27N140W. Moderate to fresh
winds prevail N of the front. High pressure is building in the
wake of the front, anchored by a 1031 mb high near 36N143W. The
pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and lower
pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to
strong winds N of the ITCZ to near 21N and W of 130W. Seas over
these waters are in the 8 to 10 ft range. Gentle to moderate
winds, and seas of 5-7 ft prevail elsewhere.

The cold front will progress quickly southeastward tonight and
Fri, and is forecast to dissipate by Sat morning as it reaches
20N. Fresh to strong winds north of 25N on Fri will diminish
below fresh by Sat morning. Seas 8 ft or greater generated from
the frontal system will propagate across the area, covering much
of the discussion waters N of 08N and W of 115W this weekend
before starting to slowly subside early next week. The area of
high pressure northwest of the discussion waters will weaken
Friday night and Saturday. This will loosen the pressure gradient
over the tradewind zone, with the trades diminishing.

$$
AL