215
AXPZ20 KNHC 071605
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Apr 7 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure continues to
surging southward along the Sierra Madre Oriental mountains of
Mexico in the wake of a strong late-season Gulf of America
cold front that has become stationary, with its southern part
reaching to southeastern Mexico. The resultant tight gradient
has recently begun to usher minimal gale-force winds into the
Gulf of Tehuantepec region. These winds are forecast to increase
to strong gale-force this afternoon. Seas are presently peaking
to 8 ft, but are expected to build even more reaching a peak of
14 ft late tonight into early Tue morning as the leading edge of
8 ft and greater seas reaches to near 14N95W. The gale conditions
are expected to continue through Wed morning. Winds will
continue to be at least near gale-force Wed afternoon into Thu
night. Gale conditions are possible again late in the week and
into next weekend. Please refer to the the latest High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/ MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from low pressure in northwest Colombia,
southwestward to 07N78W and to 04N85W. The ITCZ axis extends
from 04N89W to the Equator at 105W to beyond 05S120W. A northern
ITCZ axis extends from 09N102W to 06N110W to 04N122W. Numerous
moderate to strong convection is noted from 02S to 03.4S between
105W and 108W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is within 120 nm south of the trough between 80W-85W, and within
120 NM north of the northern ITCZ axis between 112W-119W.
Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm north of the
northern ITCZ axis between 102W-110W, and from 03N to 09N between
85W-102W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for information on
an upcoming Gulf of Tehuantepec gale warning as well as gale
conditions possible later in the week and into next weekend.

High pressure is present over the waters west of Mexico as a
trough is analyzed just inland Mexico east of the Gulf of
California. The resultant gradient is allowing for generally
fresh to strong northwest to north winds in the central and
southern Gulf of California as shown by overnight scatterometer
data. Light to gentle northwest to north winds are in the
northern of Gulf of California, except for light and variable
winds north of 30N. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds are
elsewhere offshore southern Mexico around the ridge which extends
across the waters from the high, except in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec where a northerly gap wind gale event has recently
begun as described in the Special Features section above. Seas
are mainly 4 to 6 ft in mainly old northwest swell, locally to 7
ft in the central and southern Gulf of California, and except
mixed with southerly swell offshore southern Mexico.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh northwest to north winds
will continue across the Baja California waters and offshore of
southwestern Mexico through this afternoon as high pressure
remains west of the area. Pulsing fresh to strong northwest
winds are expected in the central and southern Gulf of
California through this morning. Gale force north have recently
developed in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region north of 14N. They
are are expected to continue through at least Wed morning before
possibly developing again Thu night into next weekend. Winds will
continue to be at least near gale-force Wed afternoon into Thu
night. There is possibility for gale force winds to develop again
from late Thu night through Fri night. Elsewhere, a new set of
NW swell will induce rough seas across the Baja California waters
Mon through Wed.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The pressure gradient over the Papagayo region is supporting
moderate N to NE winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region. Seas there
are 3 to 5 ft. Mainly light to gentle variable winds are found
elsewhere, locally moderate southwest of the Galapagos Islands
where the pressure gradient is tighter. Seas are mainly 3 to 5 ft
across the offshore waters, except to 6 ft southwest of the
Galapagos Islands, and 2 to 4 ft offshore Colombia and eastern
Panama.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse in
the Papagayo region through tonight, then pulse to fresh to
strong mainly at night and into the early morning hours
thereafter as high pressure in the wake of a Gulf of America cold
front builds north of the region. Seas may build to rough with
these winds starting early Thu. Large NW swell will begin to
impact the outer waters of Guatemala later today through Wed as a
Tehuantepec gale event develops, then again possibly Fri night
into next weekend. Elsewhere, mixed SW and NW swell will maintain
moderate seas between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through
the early part of the week, with new SW swell reaching the
Galapagos Islands by the middle of the week building seas to
around rough. Otherwise, gentle to locally moderate winds are
expected across the remainder of the waters, along with slight to
moderate seas, except moderate to fresh winds in the Gulf of
Panama Wed night.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....

The leading edge of a previously associated set of NW swell has
outrun this feature now far off to the southeast, with seas of
rough or greater reaching west of a line from 30N123W to 15N130W
to 09N140W, with seas of 12 to 13 ft west of a line from 30N130W
to 27N132W to 16.5N140W. Meanwhile, winds west of the boundary
have diminished to moderate per recent ASCAT data, while mainly
gentle anticyclonic winds are elsewhere north of 25N and west of
125W under a weak and broad high centered around 29N132W. To the
south, the pressure gradient between the northern ITCZ segment
and north of roughly 07N to 21N and west of 113W is supporting
fresh to locally strong trades as seen in an overnight ASCAT
satellite data pass. Moderate to fresh winds elsewhere from 04N
to 25N to the west of 110W, along with 6 to 9 ft seas in NW to N
swell, with the highest seas just northwest of the ITCZ segment.
Across the remainder of the open waters, winds are mainly light
to gentle with seas of 4 to 7 ft in mixed southerly and northerly
swells.

For the forecast, rough seas from the aforementioned NW swell
will propagate southeastward reaching the waters west of a line
from 30N117W to 15N124W to 07N132W to 04N140W by early this
evening. Seas with this NW swell will subside to below 12 ft on
tonight. The moderate to fresh, locally strong, northeast to
east  winds will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds by Wed.
Seas with these winds will subside from north to south from Wed
through Thu night. Another front may move into the northwest part
of the area Wed night into Thu along with seas of 7 to around 10
ft in long-period NW swell that will be following it. Meanwhile,
long-period southern hemisphere swell will promote rough seas
south of about 05N starting on Tue. Guidance indicates that the
swell will gradually subside late in the week after its eastern
portion merges with swell generated by an upcoming Gulf of
Tehuantepec gale event. Looking ahead, winds may freshen again
west of 130W late Fri into next weekend as high pressure builds
across the region there.

$$
Aguirre