669
AXPZ20 KNHC 120918
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Jul 12 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 83W from 05N northward into
the Caribbean Sea, moving westward around 10 kt. Nearby
convection is described in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section below.

The axis of a tropical wave has been repositioned, and is near
93W from 03N to 15N. Nearby convection is described in the
ITCZ/monsoon trough section below.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 111.5W from 05N to 16N,
moving westward around 5 kt. Nearby convection is described in
the ITCZ/monsoon trough section below.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 123W from 05N to 16N, moving
westward around 10 to 15 kt. Nearby convection is described in
the ITCZ/monsoon trough section below.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 131W from 05N to 16N, moving
slowly westward around 5 kt. Nearby convection is described in
the ITCZ/monsoon trough section below.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N84W to 08N130W. The ITCZ
is noted from 08N132W to beyond 06N140W. Numerous moderate to
strong convection is occurring north of 02N and east of 83W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring
from 05N to 16N between 90W to 102W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends from the northern Gulf of California
through the Baja California Peninsula. Locally fresh S to SE
winds were noted on recent scatterometer satellite data across
the central and northern Gulf, as well as near Cabo San Lucas, as
a result of the pressure gradient between this trough and
ridging to the east. Seas of 3 to 5 ft are noted in this region.
Otherwise, ridging extends over the remainder of the Mexico
offshore waters, supporting gentle to moderate NW winds and 4 to
6 ft seas in mixed NW and S swell offshore of Baja, and gentle to
moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft seas in S swell over the southern
Mexico waters.

For the forecast, fresh S to SE winds are expected across the
northern and central Gulf of California this morning as surface
troughing dominates the region. Winds will diminish for the rest
of this weekend before fresh winds redevelop in the northern Gulf
early next week. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh N winds
will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec into early next week.
Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are
expected over the remainder of the waters into next week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to locally strong E to NE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft were
noted in the Gulf of Papagayo on recent scatterometer data,
supported by low pressure over northern Colombia. Moderate to
locally fresh E winds extend beyond the Papagayo region to areas
well offshore of El Salvador and Guatemala. Elsewhere, moderate S
to SW winds are occurring south of the monsoon trough. A long
period southern hemisphere swell is leading to seas of 5 to 7 ft
across the regional waters, and seas to 8 ft offshore of Ecuador,
including areas south of the Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong E to NE winds are
expected in the Gulf of Papagayo today, with pulsing moderate
winds likely on Sun. Winds will restrengthen to fresh to strong
speeds by early next week. Elsewhere, locally rough seas offshore
of Ecuador will subside early this morning. A new S to SW swell
will move through the equatorial waters early next week,
promoting rough seas south of 05N. Otherwise, moderate to
occasionally fresh S to SW winds will occur south of the monsoon
trough through early next week, with gentle to moderate winds
occurring to the north.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds were noted on recent
scatterometer data north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough as
ridging prevails over the region. Seas of 5 to 7 ft in mixed N
and SE swell are seen via SOFAR buoy data in this area.
Elsewhere, a southern hemisphere swell is promoting rough seas to
8 ft south of the equator. Moderate to locally fresh S to SE
winds are occurring over the waters south of the monsoon trough
and ITCZ.

For the forecast, ridging will continue to dominate the waters
north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ into next week, supporting
moderate to occasionally fresh N to NE winds. Moderate seas in
mixed N and SE swell are expected in this area, with locally
rough seas possible north of 28N as a new N swell moves into the
northern waters this weekend. Elsewhere, rough seas in the
equatorial waters will temporarily subside today before a new S
swell moves through the southern waters by Sun. Expect rough seas
south of 06N into the middle of next week.

$$
ADAMS