717
AXPZ20 KNHC 222102
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu May 22 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is analyzed along 110W from 04N to
15N, moving westward around 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 15N between 104W
and 115W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough enters the eastern Pacific near 10N86W to
12N109W to 08N116W. The ITCZ continues from 08N116W to beyond
08N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from
06N to 1N between 96W and 107W, and from 06N to 15N and west of
122W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging extends over the Mexico offshore waters,
supporting gentle to moderate NW winds over the Baja California
waters and offshore of southern Mexico. Recent altimeter data
show rough seas north of Punta Eugenia, generated by fresh winds
offshore of Southern California. Moderate seas prevail across
the waters offshore of Baja California Sur and southern Mexico.
Elsewhere, troughing prevails in the Gulf of California,
supporting gentle to moderate winds and slight seas, highest at
the entrance to the Gulf.

For the forecast, pulsing fresh NW winds will occur each night
near Cabo San Lucas as troughing resides over Baja California
Sur. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh NW winds are expected north of
Punta Eugenia into Sat, with pulsing winds expected offshore of
much of the peninsula Sat into early next week. In the northern
Gulf of California, winds will pulse to strong speeds nightly
into the weekend. Rough seas in NW swell will prevail offshore
of Baja California Norte through Sat before seas slowly subside
into the weekend.

In the extended forecast, an area of low pressure is likely to
form early next week several hundred miles south of the southern
coast of Mexico. Conditions appear favorable for development of
this system, and a tropical depression could form around the
middle of next week while moving westward to west-northwestward
at 10 to 15 kt. There is a medium chance of development within
the next 7 days.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh E winds are noted in the Papagayo region as
low pressure prevails over northwestern Colombia. Gentle winds
are occurring north of the monsoon trough, with gentle to
moderate SE to SW winds occurring to the south, as seen on
scatterometer data. Moderate seas in SW swell are noted offshore
of Central America and Colombia, and rough seas are occurring
offshore of Ecuador, with the highest seas occurring south of the
Galapagos Islands, as noted on altimeter data.

For the forecast, fresh to strong E winds will pulse in the Gulf
of Papagayo through this weekend as low pressure prevails over
northwestern Colombia. Moderate to fresh winds may extend beyond
the Papagayo region, impacting areas well offshore of Guatemala
and El Salvador. Elsewhere, a long-period SW swell is slated to
move through the South American waters through this weekend,
leading to rough seas offshore of Ecuador and Colombia.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....

Surface ridging dominates the east Pacific waters, anchored by a
1034 mb high centered northwest of the area near 38N165W.
Moderate to fresh N to NE winds and moderate seas prevail north
of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. Fresh NE winds occurring around
10N, west of 120W, are generating rough seas. Elsewhere,
altimeter satellite data show rough seas in N swell north of 24N
and east of 135W. Farther south, a long-period SW swell is
producing rough seas over the equatorial waters, with the highest
seas noted south of the equator. Otherwise, moderate or weaker
winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh N to NE winds will prevail
north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ through Fri as high pressure
prevails to the north. Rough seas generated by trade winds
surrounding 10N will continue through Fri before subsiding this
weekend. Elsewhere, rough seas occurring well offshore of Baja
California, north of 24N and east of 135W, will prevail into
early Sat. The high pressure to the north is slated to weaken
this weekend, supporting mainly moderate winds north of the
monsoon trough/ITCZ. Farther south, rough seas generated by a
long-period SW swell will occur south of 05N into early next
week.

$$
ERA