299
AXPZ20 KNHC 021522
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Jan 2 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant Swell NW Waters: A powerful and complex 993 mb low
pressure system is centered north of the area near 40N136W.
Storm force winds near the low center have been supporting very
large NW swell reaching the area waters as far south as 26N, with
seas near 30N140W reaching 14 ft. Additional NW swell reaching
as high as 18 ft will arrive into the waters north of 24N and
west of 130W later today. The large swell in excess of 12 ft
will spread eastward covering the waters north of 23N and west
of 125W into Sat night. The swell will also be gradually
subsiding as it spreads eastward, and should be below 12 ft by
late Sun.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 08N87W to 06N98W. The
ITCZ continues from 06N98W to 11N130W. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is evident from 02N to 07N east of 82W.
Scattered moderate convection has also developed from 10N to 13N
between 111W and 122W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

As high pressure continues moving farther E of the region, fresh
gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec continue to diminish, and
seas have fallen below 8 ft. The pressure gradient between a 1018
mb high west of Baja California Sur and a surface trough along
the eastern coast of of the Gulf of California is leading to
fresh to locally strong NW winds from the southern Gulf of
California to offshore Jalisco, with seas to 7 ft. Elsewhere,
gentle breezes and moderate seas primarily in NW swell prevail.

For the forecast, fresh northerly gap winds across the Gulf of
Tehuantepec will diminish today as high pressure north of the
area weakens and shifts eastward. Strong gap winds may return to
the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sun and Mon. Farther north, fresh NW
winds off Cabo Corrientes toward the mouth of the Gulf of
California will diminish by tonight as the pressure gradient
between high pressure to the west and a low pressure trough along
the mainland Mexico coast weakens. Long period NW swell will
bring rough seas to the Baja California offshore waters Sat night
through Mon.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF
CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

High pressure north of the region is supporting strong NE to E
gap winds in the Papagayo region, along with seas of 6 to 8 ft.
Moderate to locally fresh N winds are ongoing in the Gulf of
Panama, reaching as far south as 05N. Elsewhere, mainly gentle
winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support
fresh to strong NE to E winds in the Gulf of Papagayo with
moderate to to locally rough seas into tonight.As the high
weakens, these winds will diminish, but may return starting Sun.
Nightly pulses of fresh winds may also develop in the Gulf of
Panama starting Sun. Mainly gentle winds and slight to moderate
seas are expected elsewhere through early next week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

See Special Features section above for information on significant
swell north of 24N and west of 125W leading to very rough
combined seas through Sat night.

Strong to near-gale force SW winds are noted within 120 nm east
of a cold front extending from 30N130W to 23N140W. Strong W to NW
winds and rough seas follow the front as well. A 1017 mb high
pressure is centered near 25N123W. A surface trough is analyzed
over the tropical waters from 19N128W to 12N135W. This trough is
now inducing scattered moderate convection to its east, from 15N
to 20N between 126W and 131W. Fresh W to SW winds and rough seas
are S of 10N and W of 130W. Elsewhere, the pattern is supporting
mostly gentle to moderate breezes and moderate seas primarily in
NW swell.

For the forecast, the cold front will gradually weaken as it
continues to move eastward over the waters north of 25N through
Sat. A reinforcing front will follow, but also weaken as it moves
eastward toward 120W by Mon. Looking ahead, another front will
enter the waters east of 130W by Mon night and approach 120W
through late Tue. These fronts will disrupt the standard
subtropical ridge north of 20N, maintaining gentle to moderate
breezes across the region into early next week.

$$
Konarik