748
AXPZ20 KNHC 080340
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed Oct 8 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Priscilla is centered near 20.6N 111.5W at 08/0300
UTC, moving northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 962 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt with
gusts to 110 kt. Peak seas expected are near 42 ft. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is from 14N to 24N between 108W and
115W. On the forecast track, the center of Priscilla is expected
to move parallel to, but offshore of, the coast of Baja
California Sur through Thursday. Large swells generated by
Priscilla are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern and
west-central Mexico, as well as portions of the coast of the
southern Baja California peninsula. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, in
addition to some coastal flooding. Please consult products from
your local weather office for details.

Tropical Storm Octave is centered near 15.2N 118.0W at 08/0300
UTC, moving east at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50
kt. Peak seas expected are near 15 ft. Scattered moderate
convection is from 13N to 16N between 118W and 121W. Gradual
weakening is forecast over the next day or two, and Octave is
expected to dissipate by Thursday night.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued
by the National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Priscilla and Octave NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory
at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

South of Southern Mexico (Invest EP90): Showers and
thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure
located less than one hundred nmi offshore of the
GuatemalaMexico border remain disorganized. Environmental
conditions are expected to become more favorable for development
of this system over the next few days, and a tropical depression
is likely to form late this week if the system remains over
water. The disturbance is forecast to move west-northwestward at
10 to 15 kt, near and parallel to the coast of southern Mexico.
Regardless of development, this system is likely to produce
periods of heavy rainfall along the southern coast of Mexico
through the end of the week. This system has a medium chance for
tropical development within the next 48 hours.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 06N78W to 12N99W, then resumes W
of T.S. Octave near 14N121W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is active N of 10N and E of 101W. Scattered
showers prevail along the monsoon trough and W of 120W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on
Hurricane Priscilla, T.S. Octave, and the Invest EP90.

The broad eye of Priscilla continues to move northward and away
from Socorro Island, although the southern inner core of the
hurricane continues to pummel the island. The northern rain band
that was over the southern portion of Baja California Sur has
mostly moved offshore. Dangerous marine conditions continue to
impact the waters from Michoacan to Jalisco and toward Socorro
Island, Los Cabos and the southern portion of the Gulf of
California. Farther south, scattered thunderstorms, fresh to
strong winds and locally rough seas persist across the Gulf of
Tehuantepec this afternoon, associated with a 1006 mb low
pressure area off the coast near the border of Guatemala and the
Mexican state of Chiapas. Moderate breezes and moderate seas are
noted elsewhere over Mexican offshore waters, except for gentle
breezes and slight seas over the northern Gulf of California.

For the forecast, Priscilla will move to 21.4N 112.4W Wed
morning, 22.6N 113.7W Wed evening, weaken to a tropical storm
near 23.7N 114.7W Thu morning, 24.9N 115.1W Thu evening, 26.3N
115.3W Fri morning, and weaken to a remnant low near 27.4N 115.1W
Fri evening. Priscilla will dissipate late Sat. Farther south,
T.S. Octave will move to 15.3N 116.7W Wed morning, 16.2N 114.3W
Wed evening, weaken to a tropical depression near 17.3N 111.8W
Thu morning, and dissipate Thu evening.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms persist across the offshore
waters of northern Central America. A 1006 mb low pressure area
continues to become more organized off the coast near the border
of Guatemala and the Mexican state of Chiapas. North of the
monsoon trough, light to gentle winds and moderate seas are
noted, except moderate S to SW winds in the Nicaragua offshore
waters near the low pres. Moderate southerly winds and moderate
seas prevail S of the monsoon trough.

For the forecast, little change is expected in the weather pattern
across most of the region this week under a weak pressure gradient.
Gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected south of the monsoon
trough while light to gentle winds will prevail to the north of
it. Southerly swell will continue to propagate across the region
bringing moderate seas.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on
Tropical Storm Octave.

Outside of Octave and Priscilla, a surface ridge dominates the
waters north of 20N and west of 120W. Moderate winds and
moderate seas are observed under the influence of this system.

For the forecast, T.S. Octave will move to 15.3N 116.7W Wed morning,
16.2N 114.3W Wed evening, weaken to a tropical depression near
17.3N 111.8W Thu morning, and dissipate Thu evening. Farther
south, southerly swell to 8 ft will impact waters near the
Equator between 95W and 120W through midweek. Little change is
expected elsewhere.

$$
ERA