482
AXPZ20 KNHC 051944
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Jun 05 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms is
currently located several hundred miles south of southern
Mexico. Within this area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms, a tropical wave is near 101W S of 17N. Latest
satellite imagery shows numerous scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection from 06N to 11N between 97W-102W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 11N to 16N between 96W-102W. Low
pressure is expected to form during the next day or so a few
hundred miles south of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form over the weekend while the system moves generally
west-northwestward. The low has a medium chance of becoming a
tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Please refer to the
latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for
more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from low pressure of 1010 mb
along the coast of Colombia westward to northern Costa Rica,
then southwestward to 10N90W then northwestward to 12N100W and
southwestward to 09N100W and to 07N119W, where it transitions to
the ITCZ to 08N130W and to beyond 08N140W. Aside from the
large disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms described
above under Special Features, clusters of scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection are seen within 120 nm north of the
trough between 102W-109W. Scattered moderate convection is within
180 nm N of the trough between 90W-96W, and within 60 nm N of
the ITCZ between 110W-112W and 123W-125W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for information on
a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located
several hundred miles S of the southern coast of Mexico from
which low pressure is expected to form with potential for
tropical cyclone development.

High pressure of 1033 mb is analyzed well N of the area. An
associated ridge extends from the high southeastward to near the
Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge
and relatively lower pressures inland Mexico supports gentle to
moderate NW to N winds W of the Baja California peninsula.
Moderate to fresh NW winds are in the vicinity of Cabo San
Lucas. Seas are generally 4 to 6 ft as indicated by the latest
altimeter satellite data passes across these waters.

Light to gentle winds are in the Gulf of California. Slight seas
are in the Gulf. Seas of 3 to 4 ft in long-period SW swell are
near the entrance to the Gulf. Light to gentle NW to N winds are
along and offshore the coast of Mexico from Mazatlan to Puerto
Angel while gentle moderate E winds are in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec region. Seas over these waters are 4 to 6 ft in long-
period S to SW swell.

For the forecast, the ridge will remain in control of the
weather pattern across the offshore waters of Baja California
through Sat, with the associated gradient leading to gentle
to moderate NW winds along with moderate seas. Fresh to locally
strong NW to N winds are expected near Cabo San Lucas tonight.
Looking ahead, low pressure is expected to form from a large
area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms that is located
several hundred miles south of southern Mexico. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form over the weekend while the
system moves generally west-northwestward. Expect for winds to
increase and seas to build across the offshore waters of
southern and western Mexico during the weekend. A second low
pressure area is forecast to form on the western side of the
elongated trough south of Mexico in a couple of days possibly
staying just S of the offshore waters zones. Some slow
development of this system is possible over the weekend.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A weak pressure gradient remains over the area resulting in
gentle to moderate southerly winds south of the monsoon trough,
and light to gentle winds to the N of it. Cross-equatorial SW
swell is producing moderate seas across the offshore forecast
waters.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate S to SW winds will occur
south of the monsoon trough through this weekend, with mainly
gentle winds expected to the north. Moderate seas in cross-
equatorial swell are likely over the regional waters into this
weekend. Winds are forecast to increase to fresh to strong speeds
offshore Nicaragua Fri night. Abundant tropical moisture will
persist across the region increasing the likelihood of showers
and thunderstorms through at least Sat night.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....

Strong high pressure of 1033 mb is analyzed well N of the area
near 41N144W. Broad ridging extends from the high pressure
southward over the forecast region, covering most of the waters N
of the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough and W of 110W. The associated
gradient is resulting in generally gentle to moderate trades over
the forecast waters, with the exception of fresh N to NE winds
over the NW waters, primarily N of about 25N and W of a line from
30N126W to 25N130W. Rough seas in N to NE swell are occurring
with these winds. A weak trough is analyzed from 30N124W to
25N128W. This feature breaks down the high pressure gradient
allowing for a weak pressure pattern to exist generally over
the waters E of 130W.

For the forecast, the fresh N to NE winds will persist across
the NW waters through early Fri. The swell event generated by
strong to gale force N winds between the aforementioned high
center and relatively lower pressures in California will continue
to propagate across the northern forecast waters through Fri
before subsiding late Fri night.

$$
Aguirre