317
AXPZ20 KNHC 231544
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Aug 23 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

South of Southwestern Mexico:
A tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms several hundred miles south of the coast of
southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form by early next week while it moves generally west-
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph well off the coast of Mexico. There
is a medium chance of formation within the next 48 hours, and a
high chance within the next 7 days.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is along 89W, from 05N northward
through El Salvador into western Honduras, moving toward the west
around 20 kt. Nearby convection is described below in the
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section.

The axis of a tropical wave is along 105.5W, from 07N to 19N,
moving toward the west around 20 to 25 kt. Nearby convection is
described below in the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section.

The axis of a tropical wave is along 117W, from 06N to 18N,
moving toward the west around 5 kt. Nearby convection is
described below in the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N84W to 15N110W to beyond
11N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
occurring from 05N to 14N east of 102W, and from 10N to 18N
between 103W and 113W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 09N to 18N between 114W and 118W, and from 09N to 13N
between 122W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface trough has been analyzed from the northern Gulf of
California southward along the Baja California Peninsula. Gentle
to locally moderate SE winds and 1 to 3 ft seas are noted through
the Gulf of California. Elsewhere, moderate SE to NE winds and 5
to 7 ft seas are occurring offshore of Michoacan and Guerrero
near the northern extent of a tropical wave along 105.5W. Weak
ridging prevails over the remainder of the Mexico offshore
waters, supporting gentle to moderate winds. Seas of 4 to 6 ft
seas in NW swell prevail offshore of Baja California, with 5 to 6
ft seas in S to SW swell offshore of southern Mexico.

For the forecast, a tropical wave is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms several hundred miles south of the
coast of southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for development of this system, and a tropical
depression is likely to form by early next week while it moves
generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph well off the coast
of Mexico. There is a medium chance of formation within the next
48 hours, and a high chance within the next 7 days. Elsewhere,
moderate to fresh SE winds are expected periodically in the Gulf
of California into the middle of next week. Looking ahead,
moderate to fresh N gap winds will develop in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec on Mon, with strong winds and locally rough seas
possible by midweek.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate E to NE gap winds are noted in the Gulf of Papagayo as
low pressure prevails over northwestern Colombia. Gentle winds
are occurring elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Farther
south, moderate to fresh SE to S winds are occurring south of the
monsoon trough. Recent altimeter satellite data show 5 to 7 ft
seas in S swell prevail over these waters.

For the forecast, a long-period Southern Hemisphere swell will
lead to rough seas offshore of Ecuador by this afternoon, and
offshore of Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica by early next week.
Very rough seas will be possible south of the equator offshore of
Ecuador Sun morning into early Mon. Seas will slowly subside
through the middle of next week. Elsewhere, moderate NE to E gap
winds are expected in the Gulf of Papagayo into early next week,
with winds increasing to fresh speeds by midweek.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1021 mb high centered near 30.5N141W extends ridging through
the eastern Pacific waters north of the monsoon trough. A
moderate pressure gradient between these features is supporting
locally fresh NE winds and 8 to 9 ft seas in mixed NE and SE
swell from 13N to 20N west of 135W. Gentle to moderate N to NE
winds and 4 to 6 ft seas, observed on recent altimeter satellite
data, prevail elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. South of the
monsoon trough, moderate S to SE winds are noted. Altimeter data
show rough seas to 8 ft in mixed SE and SW swell are occurring
from 05N to 10N between 100W and 120W. Farther south, a long-
period Southern Hemisphere swell is promoting 8 ft seas south of
the equator.

For the forecast, rough seas from 05N to 10N will expand
northward to near 15N by early next week as a tropical depression
likely forms and moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15
mph well off the coast of Mexico. There is a medium chance of
formation within the next 48 hours, and a high chance within the
next 7 days. Farther south, a long-period Southern Hemisphere
swell will lead to rough seas south of the equator through late
tonight before merging with a wide expanse of rough seas farther
north. Rough seas are expected to slowly diminish by midweek
before another long-period S swell moves into the southern waters
late next week. Moderate to fresh S to SE winds are expected
south of the monsoon trough through the forecast period. North of
the monsoon trough, moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds and
moderate seas will prevail.

$$
ADAMS