708
AXPZ20 KNHC 050908
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed Feb 5 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08.5N81W to 06N90W to 04N110W.
The ITCZ extends from 04N110W to 06N124W to beyond 07N140W.
Widely scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 07.5N
east of 83W to coastal Colombia. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 02N to 07N between 87W and 108W and from 03N to 09N
between 109W and 136W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak ridge across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre
Mountains in eastern Mexico continues to supports fresh to
locally strong NW to N gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec to
about 75 nm downstream. Rough seas to 8 ft accompany the strong
winds in this area. Elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters,
the current pattern is dominated by 1019 mb high pressure
centered west of Baja California Sur near 26N120W. This weak
ridge is supporting gentle breezes across Mexican offshore waters
of Baja Norte, becoming gentle to locally moderate from Punta
Eugenia southward to Cabo Corrientes and beyond the
Revillagigedo Islands. Seas are 4 to 5 ft in open waters outside
of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, except to 6 ft near 150 nm offshore
of Baja California. Moderate westerly gap winds have developed
tonight across the northern Gulf of California, were seas are 3
to 4 ft. Gentle to locally moderate westerly gap winds prevail
across the remainder of the Gulf, where seas are 1 to 3 ft.

For the forecast, weakening high pressure ridge north of the
region across the Gulf of Mexico will maintain fresh to
occasionally strong N gap winds across the immediate Gulf of
Tehuantepec waters through early Thu morning. Farther north, a
weak frontal boundary will move into the waters off Baja
California Norte late Wed, then will dissipate Wed night.
Moderate NW swell will follow the front Wed and Wed night, then
subside, with highest seas to 8 ft across the far NW waters. High
pressure behind the front will support fresh NW winds and
moderate to locally rough seas Thu and Fri off Baja California
north of Cabo San Lazaro. Looking ahead, another front will move
through central Baja California and the central Gulf of
California Fri afternoon through Sat, accompanies by strong
reinforcing NW winds and large N-NW swell, highest north of Cabo
San Lazaro. This front will also bring moderate northwesterly
winds to the Gulf of California during that time.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

High pressure across the western Atlantic extending into the NE
Gulf of Mexico is enhancing trade flow across the southwest
Caribbean and southern Central America, resulting in persistent
gap winds across the Papagayo region, the Nicaraguan offshore
waters and the Gulf of Fonseca, extending to near 90W. Seas are
estimated to be 4 to 7 ft across this area except to 8 ft
downstream of Papagayo. Moderate to fresh N winds are across the
Gulf of Panama extending southward to 05N, where seas are 5 to 6
ft. Gentle breezes persist elsewhere, with 4 to 6 ft seas in
southerly swell.

For the forecast, little change in the regional weather pattern
is expected through the weekend, as an east to west aligned ridge
persists N of the area. This pattern will continue to support
pulsing fresh to strong NE to E gap winds across the Papagayo
region through the early Sat. Peak seas will build 7 to 8 ft
downstream each late night through morning. Moderate N winds
will pulse to locally fresh each evening and night across the
Gulf of Panama through Fri night. Moderate or weaker winds and
slight to moderate seas in SW swell will prevail elsewhere.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A weakening cold front continues to move E-SE across the northern
waters between 125W and 135W, extending from 30N125W to 27.5N133W.
Moderate SW to W winds prevail ahead of the front, from N of
27N between 120W and 127W. Combined seas are 7 to 11 ft in
mostly W-NW swell between 120W and 130W. Behind the front, large
NW to N swell is building into the regional waters, with seas of
11 to 15 ft north of 26N, decreasing to 8 ft as far south as
21N. Southeast of the front, weak 1019 mb high pressure is
centered near 26N120W, and is supporting moderate to locally
fresh trade winds along and north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough
to about 17N and W of 110W, as seen in recent satellite
scatterometer data. Gentle breezes persist elsewhere N of the
ITCZ, with 5 to 8 ft in a mix of NW and S swell. Active
scattered moderate convection continues about the monsoon trough
and ITCZ between 87W and 127W, as upper level troughing above
the trade wind zone is producing favorable upper level
conditions.

For the forecast, the eastern portion of the cold front will
move toward Baja California before stalling and becoming diffuse
Wed afternoon and evening. The western half of the front will
stall east to west along 28N Wed before lifting northward Wed
night, ahead of a next front that will move to the southeast of
30N140W by early Thu. This next front will move into the Baja
Norte waters on Fri, then stall and dissipate through Sat. Fresh
to strong winds will accompany the front Thu, along with NW
swell of 8 to 10 ft. Moderate to large W to NW swell will
generally dominate the regional waters throughout the week.
Farther to the southeast, seas will build north of the ITCZ east
of 110W through early Wed due fresh trade winds, and southerly
swell mixing with shorter period NE to E swell, originating from
the gap winds over Papagayo and Tehuantepec. Looking ahead, trade
winds and seas will build along and north of the ITCZ west of
120W Fri through Sun in response to high pressure building north
of the area.

$$
Stripling