403
AXPZ20 KNHC 061605
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Jun 06 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A broad trough of low pressure is located a couple of hundred
miles south of southern Mexico from 10N to 15N, roughly between
91W and 99W. Numerous moderate to strong convection has
increased a little on the eastern side of the trough. This
convection is noted from 12N to 16N between 91W and 96W. Strong
winds are possible with this convection. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for additional development, and a short-lived
tropical depression is likely to form over the weekend while the
system moves generally west- northwestward just off the coast of
Mexico, reaching near Socorro Island early next week. Interests
in southern and southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress
of this system. Expect winds to increase and seas to build across
the offshore waters of southern Mexico between Puerto Angel and
Cabo Corrientes Sat through Sun. This system has a medium chance
of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Please
refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

A broad area of low pressure (Invest EP91) has formed along the
western side of the elongated trough south of Mexico. A tropical
wave is embedded within this area of low pressure, with its axis
analyzed along 103W from 05N to 17N. The wave will likely weaken
and become absorbed into this area of broad low pressure later
today. Deep convective activity remains minimal at the present
time. Satellite imagery shows scattered moderate convection
within 180 nm W of the wave from 07N to 09N. Similar activity is
from 09N to 13N between the wave and 106W. Overnight altimeter
satellite data passes indicated seas of 8 to 9 ft to the SW and W
of this area of broad low pressure from 04N to 09N between 103W
and 112W. Continued gradual development of this system is
expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the
weekend or early next week while the system moves generally west-
northwestward. This system has a medium chance of becoming a
tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Please refer to the
latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for
more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from NW Colombia to southern
Costa Rica and to 09N84W to 09N91W to 12N101W to 09N110W to
08N120W and to 07N126W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and
continues to 08N134W to beyond 07N140W. Aside from convection
associated with the Special Features areas, scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is seen within 120 nm S of the
trough between 93W-100W, and within 120 nm north of the trough
between 100W-103W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm
S of the trough between 109W-110W, also within 60 nm S of the
trough between 120W-123W, and within 60 nm S of the ITCZ between
128W-138W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for information on two
broad areas of low pressure with potential for tropical cyclone
development.

A weak pressure pattern is supporting gentle breezes over most of
the area off Baja California this evening. The except is near the
coast of Baja California Sur, where an overnight scatterometer
satellite pass depicted moderate to fresh NW winds funneling
mainly off Cabo San Lucas and high pressure farther to the
northwest near 25N120W. Light breezes are noted elsewhere off
southern Mexico and in the Gulf of California. Combined seas are
4 to 6 ft off Baja California primarily in NW swell, and 3 to 5
ft primarily in long-period SW swell off southern Mexico. Slight
seas are noted across the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, the main issue will be the potential for
developing low pressure off southern Mexico described in the
Special Features section. Expect winds to increase and seas to
build across the offshore waters off western Oaxaca and Guerrero
by tonight with building seas. These strong winds and rough seas
will expand westward across the offshore waters toward Cabo
Corrientes through Sun as low pressure deepens farther to the
south off the coast. Mariners should continue to monitor the
latest statements from the National Hurricane Center on the
possible tropical cyclone development. Gentle to moderate winds
and 5 to 7 ft seas are expected elsewhere across Mexican offshore
waters, with slight seas over the Gulf of California.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A weak pressure gradient remains over the area resulting in
gentle to moderate southerly winds south of the monsoon trough,
and light to gentle winds to the north of it. Cross-equatorial
SW swell is producing moderate seas across the offshore forecast
waters.

For the forecast, Gentle to moderate S to SW winds will occur
south of the monsoon trough through this weekend, with mainly
gentle winds expected to the north, except for moderate to fresh
winds off Nicaragua today and tonight. Moderate seas in cross-
equatorial swell are likely over the regional waters into this
weekend. Abundant tropical moisture will persist across the
region increasing the likelihood of showers and thunderstorms
through the weekend.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....

Strong high pressure of 1031 mb is located well N of the area
near 41N142W, while a persistent trough, supported by broad
upper troughing, is analyzed from California southwestward to
30N124W and southwestward to near 22N132W. A tight pressure
gradient between ridging associated to the 1031 mb high and the
trough is resulting in fresh NE winds north of about 24N and W of
a line from 30N129W to 24N156W as depicted by an overnight
scatterometer satellite data pass across this part of the area.
Seas with these winds are 8 to 10 ft with NE swell. Seas to 8 ft
are likely in an area of moderate to fresh trade winds from 05N
to 10N west of 135W. Outside of the winds and seas east of 110W
described in the Special Features section, mainly gentle to
moderate winds are noted elsewhere with 5 to 7 ft seas in a mix
of N and SW swell.

For the forecast, the fresh N to NE winds will diminish by
early this evening.  The swell will continue to propagate across
the northern forecast waters today into Sat morning.

$$
Aguirre