791
AXPZ20 KNHC 080940
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed Oct 8 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Priscilla is centered near 21.0N 112.0W at 08/0900
UTC, moving northwest at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure
is 968 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 85 kt with gusts to
105 kt. Peak seas expected are near 42 ft. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is from 16N to 23N between 110W and 116W. On
the forecast track, the center of Priscilla is expected to move
parallel to, but offshore of, the coast of Baja California Sur
through Thursday. Large swells generated by Priscilla are
affecting portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central
Mexico, as well as portions of the coast of the southern Baja
California peninsula. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions, in addition to some
coastal flooding. Please consult products from your local weather
office for details.

Tropical Storm Octave is centered near 15.2N 117.3W at 08/0900
UTC, moving east at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45
kt. Peak seas expected are near 17 ft. Scattered moderate
convection is from 13N to 16N between 117W and 120W. Gradual
weakening is forecast over the next day or two, and Octave is
expected to dissipate by Thursday night.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued
by the National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Priscilla and Octave NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory
at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

South of Southern Mexico (Invest EP90): Showers and
thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure
located around 100 nmi offshore of the GuatemalaMexico border
remain disorganized. The low is analyzed near 15N95W, with 1006
mb. Environmental conditions are expected to become more
conducive for development over the next couple of days, and a
tropical depression is likely to form late this week if the
system remains over water. The disturbance is forecast to move
west- northwestward at 10 to 15 kt, roughly parallel to the coast
of southern and southwestern Mexico. Regardless of development,
the disturbance is expected to produce periods of heavy rainfall
along portions of the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico
through the end of the week, which could lead to localized
flooding. This system has a medium chance for tropical
development within the next 48 hours.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 06N77W to 13N99W, then resumes W
of T.S. Octave near 14N121W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is active N of 10N and E of 103W. Scattered
showers prevail along the monsoon trough and W of 121W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on
Hurricane Priscilla, T.S. Octave, and the Invest EP90.

The broad eye of Priscilla continues to move northward and away
from Socorro Island, although the southern inner core of the
hurricane continues to pummel the island. The northern rain band
that was over the southern portion of Baja California Sur has
mostly moved offshore. Dangerous marine conditions continue to
impact the waters from Michoacan to Jalisco and toward Socorro
Island, Los Cabos and the southern portion of the Gulf of
California. Farther south, scattered thunderstorms, fresh to
strong winds and locally rough seas persist across the Gulf of
Tehuantepec this afternoon, associated with a 1006 mb low
pressure area off the coast near the border of Guatemala and the
Mexican state of Chiapas. Moderate breezes and moderate seas are
noted elsewhere over Mexican offshore waters, except for gentle
breezes and slight seas over the northern Gulf of California.

For the forecast, Hurricane Priscilla will move to 21.8N 113.0W
this afternoon, 22.9N 114.2W Thu morning, weaken to a tropical
storm near 24.2N 115.1W Thu afternoon, 25.5N 115.4W Fri morning,
26.8N 115.4W Fri afternoon, and weaken to a remnant low near
27.9N 115.2W Sat morning. Priscilla will dissipate early Sun.
Farther south, T.S. Octave will move to 15.5N 115.7W this
afternoon, weaken to a remnant low near 16.6N 113.0W Thu morning,
17.4N 109.9W Thu afternoon, and dissipate Fri morning.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms persist across the offshore
waters of northern Central America. A 1006 mb low pres (Invest
EP90) is analyzed near 15N95W continues to become more organized
off the coast near the border of Guatemala and the Mexican state
of Chiapas. North of the monsoon trough, light to gentle winds
and moderate seas are noted, except moderate S to SW winds in the
Nicaragua offshore waters near the low pres. Moderate southerly
winds and moderate seas prevail S of the monsoon trough.

For the forecast, little change is expected in the weather pattern
across most of the region this week under a weak pressure gradient.
Gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected south of the monsoon
trough while light to gentle winds will prevail to the north of
it. Southerly swell will continue to propagate across the region
bringing moderate seas.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on
Tropical Storm Octave.

Outside of Octave and Priscilla, a surface ridge dominates the
waters north of 20N and west of 120W. Moderate winds and
moderate seas are observed under the influence of this system.

For the forecast, T.S. Octave will move to 15.5N 115.7W this
afternoon, weaken to a remnant low near 16.6N 113.0W Thu morning,
17.4N 109.9W Thu afternoon, and dissipate Fri morning. Farther
south, southerly swell to 8 ft will impact waters near the
Equator between 95W and 120W through midweek. Little change is
expected elsewhere.

$$
ERA