378
AXPZ20 KNHC 061006
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon Oct 6 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0950 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Priscilla is centered near 17.2N 107.3W at 06/0900
UTC, moving north-northwest at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 977 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with
gusts to 90 kt. Peak seas are near 30 ft. Numerous moderate to
strong convection is from 13N to 20N between 104W and 111W.
Scattered moderate to strong convection in spiral bands are
elsewhere from 11N to 24N between 99W and 112W. On the forecast
track, the center of the system is expected to move offshore of
and parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico and Baja
California Sur through the early-to-middle part of this week.
Additional strengthening is forecast, and Priscilla is expected
to become a category 2 hurricane, and could approach major
hurricane status within the next couple of days before weakening
likely commences by midweek. Swells generated by Priscilla have
begun to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and
will reach portions of the coast of west-central Mexico and the
southern Baja California peninsula today. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

Tropical Storm Octave is centered near 16.3N 122.2W at 06/0900
UTC, moving east at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
993 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75
kt. Peak seas are near 19 ft. Numerous moderate convection is
from 15N to 18N between 121W and 124W. A turn toward the east-
southeast is expected later today, continuing into Wednesday,
followed by a turn toward the northeast and an acceleration by
Thursday. A steady weakening trend is expected to continue
through midweek.

Please read the latest NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Octave and Priscilla NHC Forecasts/Advisories and Public
Advisories at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N84W to 12N96W, then resumes
SW of Octave from 12N126W to 09N133W. The ITCZ extends from
09N133W to 09N140W. Aside from the convection associated with
Octave and Priscilla, scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted from 02N to 16N E of 98W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on
Hurricane Priscilla.

The SW Mexican offshore waters from Jalisco to Guerrero are being
affected by Hurricane Priscilla. Heavy rainfall associated with
Priscilla will impact coastal sections of southwestern Mexico
through tonight, which could result in flash flooding,
particularly in areas of higher terrain. Farther north, the
pressure gradient between both hurricanes Priscilla and Tropical
Storm Octave, and a broad ridge extending SE to near 122W is
supporting moderate NW winds and moderate seas in NW swell N of
Cabo San Lucas. Light to gentle winds and slight seas are
elsewhere in the Gulf of California. In the Gulf of Tehuantepec,
a developing low pressure to the east is supporting gentle to
moderate W winds and moderate seas.

For the forecast, Priscilla will move to 17.9N 107.9W this
afternoon, 18.8N 109.0W Tue morning, 19.7N 110.2W Tue afternoon,
20.7N 111.7W Wed morning, 21.7N 113.0W Wed afternoon, and 22.8N
114.2W Thu morning. Priscilla will weaken to a tropical storm
near 25.3N 116.0W early Fri. Elsewhere, a ridge will continue to
dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja California through
today, supporting moderate NW to N winds N of Cabo San Lazaro.

Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to form off
the southern coast of Mexico by midweek. Gradual development of
this system is likely thereafter, and a tropical depression could
form during the latter part of the week while moving slowly
west-northwestward, near or parallel to the coast of Mexico. This
system has a medium change of tropical cyclone formation through
7 days.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms persist across the offshore
waters of Central America and Colombia. Winds and seas could be
higher near thunderstorms. N of the monsoon trough, light to
gentle winds and moderate seas are noted, except moderate to
fresh S to SW winds in the Nicaragua offshore waters due to a
developing low pressure. Mainly moderate southerly winds and
moderate seas prevail S of the monsoon trough.

For the forecast, little change is expected in the weather pattern
across most of the region this week under a weak pressure gradient.
Gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected south of the monsoon
trough while light to gentle winds will prevail to the N of it.
Southerly swell will continue to propagate across the region bringing
moderate seas in the 5 to 7 ft range. Looking ahead, winds may increase
to fresh speeds across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador
by the middle of the week as a low pressure develops along the monsoon
trough before shifting westward into the Tehuantepec region.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on
Hurricane Priscilla and Tropical Storm Octave.

Outside of Octave and Priscilla, a surface ridge dominates the
waters N of 20N and W of 120W. Mainly moderate winds and
moderate seas are observed under the influence of this system.
Winds increase to fresh speeds over the NW corner of the forecast
area due to the pressure gradient between a surface trough near
140W and the ridge, and also NW of Octave due to the pressure
gradient between the ridge and the tropical cyclone.

For the forecast, Octave will move to 16.3N 121.3W this
afternoon, 16.0N 120.2W Tue morning, 15.6N 119.0W Tue afternoon,
15.5N 117.7W Wed morning, 15.8N 116.1W Wed afternoon, and 16.7N
114.0W Thu morning. Octave will dissipate early Fri. Moderate or
weaker winds and moderate seas are forecast elsewhere this week.

$$
Ramos