577
AXPZ20 KNHC 222044
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Feb 22 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N79W to 04N128W. The ITCZ
stretches from 04N128W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate
convection is present S of 08N and E of 88W, and N of 02N
between 107W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails across the Mexican offshore waters,
anchored by a 1029 mb high centered near 32N130W. Gentle to
moderate northerly winds and seas of 5-8 ft are found the
offshore waters of Baja California, with the highest seas
occurring northwest of Guadalupe island. A recent scatterometer
satellite pass captured light to moderate NW winds in the Gulf of
California. Seas in these waters are 1-3 ft. Strong to near-gale
NE winds prevail across the Tehuantepec region, with seas to 9
ft. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are
prevalent in the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters.

For the forecast, near-gale force NE winds will prevail across
the Tehuantepec region through the weekend. Moderate to fresh NW
winds will develop tonight and continue into Mon night in the
central and southern Gulf of California and offshore of
southwestern Mexico due to a tightening pressure gradient. Seas
to 5 ft will accompany these winds. Looking ahead, moderate to
fresh NW winds and NW swell will affect the offshore waters of
Baja California Norte Mon night into Wed, with seas peaking near
10 ft. The decaying swell will spread into the Baja California
Sur waters late in the week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A subtropical ridge over the southern United States forces fresh
to strong NE trade winds in the Gulf of Papagayo and downstream
to 94W. Seas in these waters are 6-8 ft. Latest observations
captured fresh northerly winds in the Gulf of Panama. Seas in the
area described are 3-6 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds
and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, pulsing strong to near-gale-force NE to E
winds will prevail in the Gulf of Papagayo through Sun night due
to a strong ridge north of the Caribbean waters. The strongest
winds are expected each night and morning, and rough seas will
occur near and downstream of these winds. The gale-force gap
winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will result in rough seas in the
far offshore waters of Guatemala through Sun. Elsewhere, winds
will pulse to fresh to occasionally strong speeds in the Gulf of
Panama each night and morning tonight through the weekend.
Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas
will prevail across the remainder of the offshore waters of
Central and South America through the forecast period.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1029 mb high pressure system located near 32N130W extends
southward into the tropical eastern Pacific waters. A deep upper
level trough over the western waters is producing a large area of
cloudiness and showers west of 105W and south of 25N. A recent
scatterometer satellite pass showed moderate to fresh
anticyclonic winds north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ and west
of 105W. Seas in these waters are 6-8 ft. Farther east, moderate
to fresh NE-E winds and 6-8 ft seas are found north of 05N and
east of 105W in association with downstream winds from the
now weakening gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are
prevalent.

For the forecast, fresh to strong easterly winds will prevail in
the western trade waters through early next week, with seas
building to 10 ft. Rough seas generated by weakening gap winds
in the Gulf of Tehuantepec and Gulf of Papagayo will continue
from 05N to 15N and as far west as 110W through the weekend. The
next NW swell event will reach the NW waters on Monday and
gradually spread eastward. By midweek, a cold front will enter
the NW waters, producing fresh to strong winds and rough to very
rough seas into late in the week.

$$
ERA