980
AXPZ20 KNHC 170817
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat May 17 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 06N131W. The ITCZ
continues from 06N131W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 04N to 12N and E of 107W and from 04N to
12N and W of 115W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja
California extending SE to near the Revillagigedo Islands. This
system supports gentle to moderate NW winds off the Baja California
peninsula, with moderate seas. Moderate to strong SW winds have
developed over the northern portion of the Gulf of California
related to a low pres that formed N of the area. Elsewhere
across the Mexican offshore waters, including the remainder of
the Gulf of California, light and variable winds prevail.
Moderate seas are noted elsewhere except for slight seas in the
Gulf of California.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will continue to dominate
the weather pattern across the offshore waters of Baja California
through the weekend, supporting moderate to fresh NW winds and
moderate to rough seas. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate
seas, primarily in SW swell, will prevail elsewhere. A low pres
is forecast to approach the northern Gulf of California today
producing fresh to strong S to SW winds. Rough seas generated by
fresh to strong northerly winds offshore California will reach
the waters N of Punta Eugenia Sun night into Mon. Building seas
to around 10 ft are expected. This swell will continue to
propagate southward, mainly across the waters N of 25N between
118W and 130W by Mon night.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate east winds prevail across the Papagayo region
and the coast of Nicaragua and downwind to 89W. There is also a
pulse of moderate SW winds in the Gulf of Panama region. Light
to gentle winds are noted elsewhere N of the monsoon trough while
gentle to moderate S winds are noted south of the it. Winds and
seas are higher near thunderstorms along the monsoon trough.

For the forecast, abundant moisture drawn in by a very moist and
unstable southerly wind flow will persist across the offshore
waters of Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama and Colombia through the
weekend, supporting the development of scattered showers and
thunderstorms over this area. Gentle to moderate winds will
prevail across the region through Sun, then diminish on Mon.
Slight to moderate seas, primarily in SW swell, are expected.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....

High pressure of 1031 mb is located NW of area near 33N145W. Its
associated ridge dominates the waters north of the ITCZ and west
of 110W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower
pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to
fresh winds N of the ITCZ and W of 120W. Rough seas are within
these winds. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are noted
elsewhere in a mix of swell.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient will continue to support
moderate to fresh NE winds north of the ITCZ and W of 120W
through early next week. The NW swell will combine with wind
waves to keep and area of rough seas over the west-central waters
this weekend, particularly from 10N to 20N W of 130W. A new
swell event will reach the N waters Sun night into Mon, building
seas to around 10 ft N of 25N between 120W and 130W by Mon
night.

$$
ERA