193
AXPZ20 KNHC 080408
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue Sep 8 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Marie is centered near 25.1N 125.9W at 08/0300
UTC, moving west-northwest at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 994 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with
gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas have lowered to near 17 ft. Latest
satellite imagery continue to show a sheared Marie, with its
center having become exposed to the northwest of scattered
moderate convection in the SE quadrant from 19N to 25N between
121W and 126W. Marie is forecast to turn to the northwest
over the next couple of days, and is forecast to become a post-
tropical remnant low by Wed. Swells generated by Marie will
continue to affect portions of the coast of the Baja California
Peninsula and southern California for the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Marie NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis along 88W north of 04N. It is
moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
from 03N to 14N between 79W and 94W.

A tropical wave has its axis along 109W from 05N to 18N. It is
moving westward at about 10 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated
strong convection is from 06N to 16N between 102W and 117W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 08N83W to 14N109W to
10N126W and to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is
from 00N to 14N west of 117W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak pressure gradient across the region due to the presence of
Tropical Storm Marie to the west of the Baja California Peninsula
is supporting mainly gentle to moderate NW winds off Baja and
light to gentle winds along with slight seas in the Gulf of
California. A broad area of low pressure located several hundred
miles southwest of southwestern Mexico with potential to develop
into a tropical cyclone later in the week is supporting moderate
to fresh winds off Jalisco and south of the Revillagigedo
Islands. Otherwise, moderate to fresh winds are pulsing in
Tehuantepec.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds are expected to
briefly develop over the nearshore waters of Baja California and
over some sections of the Gulf of California tonight into Tue as
Tropical Storm Marie, near 25.1N 125.9W at 8 PM PDT, moves
farther away from the forecast waters. Showers and thunderstorms
associated with a broad area of low pressure located several
hundred miles southwest of southwestern Mexico remain
disorganized. Gradual development of this system is possible, and
a tropical depression could form later this week while the
system moves generally west- northwestward at 10 to 15 kt.
Regardless of development, this system may bring moderate to
fresh winds to the offshore waters of Jalisco and the
Revillagigedo Islands tonight through Wed night. Otherwise, the
next gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec is expected to
begin tonight and pulse to strong speeds through Fri.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong northeast to east winds are in the Gulf of
Papagayo region. Seas there are 5 to 7 ft in south to southwest
swell. Light to gentle winds along with moderate seas are
elsewhere over these waters.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support
fresh to strong easterly winds, and moderate to rough seas across
the Gulf of Papagayo region through Sat. High pressure building
north of the area will lead to near gale speeds wind Wed and Wed
night. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh southerly winds are expected
over the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Tue through Wed
night, then diminishing some afterward. Moderate or lighter
winds are expected elsewhere.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section for information
on Tropical Storm Marie.

Outside from marine impacts attributed to Marie over the
northeast portion of this part of the region, fresh northeast
to east winds along with seas of 7 to 10 ft in east swell are
over the far western waters north of 20N and west of about 135W.
These conditions are forecast to merge with those associated to
Tropical Storm Marie in about 18 hours. Elsewhere, moderate or
weaker winds along with seas of 5 to 7 ft are over the remainder
of the tropical eastern Pacific, with the exception of higher
seas of 6 to 9 ft in north to northeast swell generated by
Tropical Storm Marie over the waters north of 13N between 118W
and 135W.

For the forecast, Marie will move to 25.8N 126.9W Tue morning,
become post-tropical and move to 27.2N 127.9W Tue evening, weaken
to a remnant low near 29.1N 129.1W Wed morning, 31.3N 130.4W Wed
evening, 33.4N 132.0W Thu morning, and dissipate Thu evening.

Long-period northwest to north swell is merging with cross-
equatorial Southern Hemispheric swell south of about 2N and
between 110W and 125W. This swell area is forecast to expand
eastward through Wed as the primary swell direction becomes
northwest to north, Seas from this swell are expected to
be 7 to 9 ft. To the east, an area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure is located
several hundred nautical miles south-southwest of southwestern
Mexico. Gradual development of this system is possible, and a
tropical depression could form later this week while the system
generally west-northwestward.

$$
Ramos