213
AXPZ20 KNHC 210243
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat Jun 21 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09.5N74W to 09.5N80W to 06.5N90W
to 12N120W to low pres 1011 mb near 08.5N137W to beyond 07N140W.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 02.5N to
10N E of 99W. Scattered moderate convection is seen elsewhere
within 180 nm of the trough between 99W and 139W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure remains centered well NW of Baja California along
145W and extends a ridge southeastward to near 23N118W. Moderate
to locally fresh NW to N winds prevail across the Baja waters
north of Cabo San Lazaro, and moderate or weaker winds NW winds
across the remaining Baja waters to the south. Northerly swell
moving through the regional waters is producing seas of 6 to 9 ft
across the waters north of Punta Eugenia, and 4 to 6 ft to the
south. The remnants of Erick have dissipated across interior
portions of Jalisco and Nayarit this afternoon. Broad and weak
low pressure prevail elsewhere south and southeastward of Baja
across the Mexican offshore waters to near Puerto Angel. A 1011
low pressure center is analyze just south of Las Tres Marias,
producing scattered moderate convection from Cabo Corrientes
northward into the entrance to the Gulf of California. Fresh SE
to S winds blowing parallel to the coast are found within 75 nm
of the coasts between Oaxaca and Jalisco, while further offshore
across the area light to gentle westerly winds generally
prevail. Southerly winds are increasing inside south portions of
the Gulf of California to near 20 kt. Abundant moisture and
instability are entering the area from the east, enhancing
scattered moderate to strong convection within 120 nm of the
coast to the east of Puerto Angel.

For the forecast, high pressure centered well northwest of the
area will continue to support moderate to fresh northwest to
north winds across the Baja California offshore waters north of
Punta Eugenia through the weekend before winds there gradually
diminish to gentle to moderate by early next week. N swell will
build across the Baja California waters through Sat evening, then
gradually diminish through the middle of next week. Southerly
winds across much of the Gulf of California tonight will
gradually increase to fresh to strong tonight through Sun
morning.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate SW to W winds prevail between Ecuador and the Galapagos
Islands tonight, then become moderate or weaker from offshore
Colombia northward to 10N, with moderate seas. Fresh NE gap winds
prevail across the Papagayo region offshore to near 88W.
Moderate seas in mixed S and SW swell across the are waters,
including the Papagayo region. Scattered moderate to strong
thunderstorms have become active across much of the waters E of
90W, particularly across the waters of Panama and Colombia.
Scattered afternoon thunderstorms across interior portions of
Honduras, El Salvador and Guatemala continue to shift southwest
and over the nearshore coastal waters, with the strongest
thunderstorms currently moving across the Gulf of Fonseca and
offshore.

For the forecast, moderate S to SW winds offshore Ecuador to the
Galapagos Islands will increase to moderate to fresh through the
weekend while expanding westward, and will coincide with an
increase in thunderstorm activity across the area waters. Winds
offshore Colombia northward to 10N will be moderate during this
time. North of 10N, expect gap winds across the Papagayo region
to pulse to mostly fresh speeds at night through early next week,
possibly increasing to strong speeds on Mon night. Moderate seas
will prevail across the regional waters through the forecast
period.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Broad surface ridging extends from a 1033 mb high pressure
center near 37N145W, located well northwest of the discussion
area. The associated ridge extends south and southeastward across
the open waters north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ and west of
about 118W. Fresh NE trades prevail north of about 15N and west
of 130W, while moderate to fresh N to NE winds are north of 20N
and between 120W and 130W. Moderate to rough seas in mixed swell
prevail across the whole area, with highest seas to 11 ft found N
of 28N and east of 124W. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are
south of the monsoon trough along with moderate seas.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will drift NW
and strengthen slightly through the weekend to maintain the
current wind pattern W of 120W. Seas north of 20N will build
through the weekend as new N to NE swell propagates through
these waters, spreading rough seas from the northeastern waters
to 140W through Sun evening before subsiding.

$$
Stripling