420
AXPZ20 KNHC 182047
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Apr 18 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2035 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from Costa Rica near 09N84W to 06N102W.
The ITCZ stretches from 06N102W to 06N120W and beyond 04N140W. A
second ITCZ is observed from 02S112W to 03S129W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring south of 05N
and east of 87W. Similar convection is present from 02N to 11N
and between 95W and 137W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A deep upper level trough over the SW United States continues to
produce widespread cloudiness over much of western Mexico,
including Baja California Sur and the regional waters. At the
surface, a subtropical ridge over the North Pacific dominates the
offshore waters. Moderate to fresh northerly winds and moderate
seas are noted south of Cabo San Lazaro and in the central Gulf
of California. Gentle to moderate northerly winds and slight to
moderate seas are found north of Cabo San Lazaro and in the
remainder of the Gulf of California. Elsewhere, moderate or
weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, a modest pressure gradient result in moderate
to fresh winds in the northern and central Gulf of California
this afternoon. A second surge of localized fresh to strong
winds are expected tonight into early Sat, with diminishing winds
expected thereafter. Elsewhere, locally fresh NW winds will
pulse offshore of Baja California Sur each night and morning
through Sun, and offshore of Jalisco this weekend. Otherwise,
prevailing ridging over the eastern Pacific will support moderate
winds and moderate seas offshore of Baja California and
southwestern Mexico into early next week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A strong high pressure system located north of the Caribbean
continues to maintain a tight pressure gradient across the Gulf
of Papagayo and downstream waters. An scatterometer satellite
pass from a few hours ago showed strong to near gale-force
easterly trade winds. Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft. Farther
east, the ridge is forcing moderate to fresh northerly winds and
moderate seas in the Gulf of Panama, extending south to 02N.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are
prevalent.

For the forecast, fresh to strong easterly trade winds will
pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo through early next week as a strong
pressure gradient prevails between the Colombian low and ridging
over the eastern Gulf of America and western Atlantic. Winds may
reach near gale-force tonight into Sat morning, and locally
rough seas in E swell will accompany these winds. Winds are
expected to diminish below strong force on Tue. Elsewhere,
pulsing fresh to locally strong N winds will occur in the Gulf of
Panama through Sat. Looking ahead, a new long-period S to SW
swell will propagate through the regional waters early next week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....

A broad subtropical ridge over the North Pacific extends into
the waters of the tropical eastern Pacific. A recent
scatterometer satellite pass depicted moderate to fresh easterly
trade winds west of 115W. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. Moderate
or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent elsewhere.

For the forecast, ridging will continue to dominate the eastern
Pacific waters over the coming days, supporting moderate N to E
winds north of the ITCZ into early next week. Pulsing fresh NE
winds are expected through Sun between 05N and 20N, west of 115W.
A short-period, wind-generated E swell will promote rough seas
in this region through early next week. Farther south, rough seas
in S swell south of the equator will subside through Sat
morning. Looking ahead, new N swell will lead to rough seas in
the northern waters, north of 25N, by early next week.

$$
Delgado