019
AXPZ20 KNHC 230340
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat Nov 23 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A surface ridge extending
along the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains in eastern
Mexico, and across the western Gulf of Mexico continues across
southeastern Mexico and northern Central America, behind a cold
front across the W Caribbean. The pressure gradient continues to
support gale-force N winds across the Tehuantepec region, with
peak seas currently estimated at 13 ft. These winds and seas are
expected to persist through Sat morning, then diminish to strong
winds Sat afternoon then continue to gradually diminish through
Sun. Marine interests transiting across the Gulf of Tehuantepec
through Sat morning should take the necessary action to avoid
hazardous marine conditions over these affected waters.

For more details, please read the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from near 11N75W to 10N84W to 08N100W
to 13N117W to 11.5N121W. The ITCZ continues from 11.5N121W to
08N137W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
N of 05.5N E of 84W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 06.5N to 11N between 87W and 103W, and
from 07.5N to 11.5N W of 123W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please,
see the Special Features section above for more details.

A broad ridge, anchored by a 1019 mb high pressure centered near
26N125W dominates the offshore waters of Baja California and
waters W of 105W. This pattern is promoting gentle to moderate
winds across the Baja California offshore waters where seas are
5 to 8 ft in NW swell, N of 20N. Moderate NW winds prevail in
the southern Gulf of California. Seas are 3 to 5 ft across the
central and southern part of the Gulf while seas of 2 to 3 ft
area noted over the northern Gulf. Light to gentle winds and seas
of 4 to 5 ft in mixed swell dominate the remainder of the
Mexican offshore waters.

For the forecast, gale-force N winds across the Gulf of
Tehuantepec will persist through Sat morning, before gradually
diminishing through Sun. Elsewhere, a weak surface ridge will
remain in control of the weather pattern across the Baja
California waters through early next week, supporting gentle to
moderate NW to N winds. Moderate NW swell will continue to
dominate area seas tonight before subsiding through the weekend.
The high pressure will weaken Sun through Mon as a weak cold
front approaches the Baja Norte offshore waters from the NW.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate south to southwest winds continue across the
offshore waters of southern Colombia and Ecuador, where seas are
in the 5 to 7 ft range. Scattered moderate convection continues
across these waters E of 85W, fueled by these winds. Elsewhere,
gentle generally onshore winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail S
of 10N. Light to gentle offshore winds are now across the waters
N of 10N, with moderate NE winds streaming offshore of the
Papagayo area extending offshore to near 90W .

For the forecast, NW swell generated by gale-force winds in the Gulf
of Tehuantepec will impact the far western Guatemala offshore
waters through early Sat. Offshore gap winds N of 10N will
continue through Mon, with fresh to strong NE to E winds expected
across the Papagayo region tonight through early Sun, as high
pressure builds across the NW Caribbean and northern Central
America. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas
will prevail. Looking ahead, cross equatorial SW swell is
expected to move into the regional waters Sun night, increasing
seas to 8 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, and 5 to
7 ft elsewhere early Mon through Tue.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Surface ridging dominates most of the N waters N of 10N and W of
105W. A light to gentle anticyclonic flow is noted under the
influence of this system. A cold front in the NW waters extends
from 30N130W to 25N140W. Fresh SW winds are ahead of the front
covering the forecast waters N of 28N and W of 127W. Seas there
are 8 to 11 ft in NW swell. Swell generated north of the front
is propagating across much of the waters N of 22 W of 118W with
seas of 8 to 10 ft. Gentle to moderate NE to E trade winds
prevail between 10N and 20N W of 115W, where seas are 6 to 8 ft
in NW swell.

For the forecast, the high pressure will drift SW and weaken
slightly through Sun, ahead of the cold front. The front will
reach from 30N125W to 25N140W by early Sat afternoon while
weakening. The fresh to strong winds ahead of the front will
diminish to 20 kt or less tonight. Seas 8 to 11 ft in NW swell
that follow the front will subside to less than 8 ft by late Sat.
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are
expected through Tue.

$$
Stripling