120
AXPZ20 KNHC 161525
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Aug 16 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 92W, from 02N to 14N, moving west at
10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 06N to
15N between 88W and 97W.

A tropical wave is along 102W, north of 04N to 16N, moving west
at around 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted across the southern
half of the wave.

A tropical wave is along 120W from 04N to 16N, moving west at
10-15 kt. No significant convection is evident near this wave.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N82W to 10N92W to 07N103W to
11N110W, then resumes near 17N112W to 11N127W. The ITCZ extends
from 11N127W to beyond 09N140W. In addition to the convection
described above in the Tropical Waves section, scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is active within 200 nm on either
side of the boundaries W of 107W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh southerly winds prevail over the northern Gulf of
California, between lower pressure over the Colorado River
Valley and higher pressure over central Mexico. Moderate seas
persist over the northern and central Gulf of California, with
slight seas farther south. To the west, weak ridging extends from
high pressure centered over the north- central Pacific to near
the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. This pattern
is supporting mostly moderate NW breezes and moderate seas off
Baja California. Light to gentle breezes and slight seas are
noted farther south off southern Mexico.

For the forecast, fresh S winds will persist across northern and
central Gulf of California through tonight between low pressure
over the Colorado River Valley and higher pressure over central
Mexico. Elsewhere, a ridge will persist west of the Baja
California peninsula into early next week, supporting gentle to
moderate NW winds with moderate seas. Farther south, light to
gentle winds and moderate seas in SW swell will persist across
the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle westerly winds dominate the offshore waters
north of 06N while gentle to moderate southerly winds are noted
south of 06N. Moderate seas prevail across the whole area.

For the forecast, light to gentle westerly winds will continue
across the waters north of 05N through the upcoming weekend while
gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected south of 05N.
Cross-equatorial southerly swell will continue to propagate
across the regional waters, keeping seas in the moderate range,
except in the lee of the Galapagos Islands where slight seas are
expected.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Weak ridging remains in place north of 15N, west of 120W,
supporting moderate to fresh trade winds from 05N to 15N west of
135W. Recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated moderate to
fresh SE winds south of 05N between 115W and 135W. Gentle to
moderate breezes and moderate seas in a mix of SW and NW swell
persist elsewhere.

For the forecast, the ridge will remain in place through the
middle of next week. Combined seas will be rough in pockets
south of 10N and west of 130W today into Sun, due to a
combination fresh SE and NE winds. Winds and seas will subside
Mon, but expect another surge of southerly swell south of the
monsoon trough between 115W and 135W by mid week. Little change
is expected elsewhere.

$$
ERA