Tropical Weather Discussion
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Issued by NWS
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182 AXPZ20 KNHC 221543 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Fri Nov 22 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A surface ridge extending along the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains in eastern Mexico, and across the western Gulf of Mexico continues to build across southeastern Mexico and northern Central America, behind a cold front across the NW Caribbean. This pressure gradient continues to support gale-force N winds across the Tehuantepec region, with peak seas estimated at 16 ft. Recent satellite scatterometer wind data depicted gale-force winds extending southward of the Gulf to near 13N. These winds and seas are expected to persist through Sat morning before gradually diminishing through Sun. Marine interests transiting across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Sat morning should take the necessary action to avoid hazardous marine conditions over these affected waters. For more details, please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from near 10N86W to 13N117W. The ITCZ continues from 13N117W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered showers are noted along the monsoon trough mainly E of 93W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please. see the Special Features section above for more details. A broad ridge, anchored by a 1020 mb high pressure N of the area dominates the offshore waters of Baja California. This pattern is promoting light to gentle winds across the Baja California offshore waters where seas are 6 to 9 ft in NW swell, mainly N of 24N. Elsewhere, the tight pressure gradient between the ridge and a trough in northwestern Mexico is supporting fresh NW winds in the central Gulf of California. Seas are 4 to 5 ft across the central and southern part of the Gulf while seas of 2 to 3 ft area noted over the northern Gulf. Light to gentle winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft in mixed swell dominate the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters between Cabo Corrientes and Puerto Angel. For the forecast, gale-force N winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec will persist through Sat morning before gradually diminishing through Sun. Elsewhere, surface ridging will remain in control of the weather pattern across the Baja California waters through early next week, supporting gentle to moderate NW to N winds. Moderate NW swell will continue to dominate area seas today before subsiding through the weekend. The high pressure will weaken Sun through Mon as a weak cold front approaches the Baja Norte offshore waters from the NW. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate south to southwest winds across the offshore waters of southern Colombia and Ecuador where seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range. Moderate convection continues across these waters E of 83W, fueled by these winds. Elsewhere, light to gentle generally onshore winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail S of 10N, while winds gentle offshore NE winds have developed across the waters N of 10N. For the forecast, NW swell generated by gale-force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will impact the far western Guatemala offshore waters through early Sat. A return to offshore gap winds is occurring across the waters N of 10N today, and will continue through Mon, with fresh to strong NE to E winds expected across the Papagayo region tonight through early Sun, as high pressure builds across the NW Caribbean and northern Central America. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will prevail. Looking ahead, cross equatorial SW swell is expected to move into the regional waters Sun night, increasing seas to 8 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, and 5 to 7 ft elsewhere early Mon through Tue. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Surface ridging dominates most of the N waters N of 10N and W of 115W. A light to gentle anticyclonic flow is noted under the influence of this system. A cold front has entered the NW waters and extends from 30N134W to 26N140W. Fresh to strong SW winds are ahead of the front covering the forecast waters N of 27N and W of 127W. Seas there are 8 to 13 ft in NW swell. Swell generated north of the front is propagating across much of the waters N of 24N W of 118W with seas of 8 to 11 ft. Gentle to moderate NE to E trade winds prevail between 10N and 20N W of 115W, where seas are 6 to 8 ft n NW swell. For the forecast, the high pressure will drift SW and weaken slightly through Sun, ahead of the cold front. The front will reach from 30N125W to 25N140W by early Sat afternoon while weakening. The fresh to strong winds ahead of the front will diminish to 20 kt or less by tonight. Seas 8 to 13 ft in NW swell that follow the front will subside to less than 8 ft by late Sat. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are expected. $$ ERA