000
AXPZ20 KNHC 041602
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Jul 4 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

South of Southern Mexico:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, partly
associated with a tropical wave, is centered a few hundred miles
south of southern Mexico. Gradual development of this system is
expected during the next few days, and a tropical depression is
likely to form later this weekend or early next week while it
moves generally west-northwestward well off the coast of Mexico.
There is a medium chance of tropical formation within the next
two days, and a high chance within the next seven days. Please
refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
wwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has been analyzed along 85W, from the Gulf of
Honduras in the Caribbean Sea southward to 05N in the eastern
Pacific. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
occurring from 03N to 10N between 78W and 92W.

A tropical wave is located along 101.5W, from 09N to 17N. An
area of low pressure, centered near 13N101.5W, is noted where the
wave axis intersects the monsoon trough. Please see SPECIAL
FEATURES above for more on this feature. Scattered moderate
convection is occurring from 12N to 17N between 100W and 107W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 13N105W to 08N124W. The
ITCZ continues from 08N124W to 07N140W. Widely scattered moderate
convection is occurring from 09N to 12N between 110W and 118W,
and from 07N to 09N west of 133W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on
potential tropical development off the coast of southern Mexico
this weekend or early next week.

The remnant low of Flossie is moving through the Baja California
Sur waters, centered around 300 NM west of Cabo San Lucas. Fresh
to strong winds and rough seas of 8 to 10 ft continue with this
system, with localized near-gale force winds noted north of the
center. Elsewhere, troughing has been analyzed along the Baja
California Peninsula, and high pressure prevails over central
through northwestern Mexico. The pressure gradient between these
features is supporting fresh to strong S to SE winds in the
northern Gulf of California. Otherwise, increasing fresh winds
and rough seas of 8 to 9 ft are developing off the coast of
southern Mexico, near the tropical wave and associated low
pressure system.

For the forecast, the remnant low of Flossie will move
northwestward through the Baja California waters today, producing
fresh to strong winds and rough seas south of Punta Eugenia
through tonight, before winds and seas diminish early on Sat. In
the Gulf of California, fresh to strong S to SE winds are
expected today with winds subsiding tonight. Elsewhere, fresh to
occasionally strong winds and rough seas will occur off the coast
of southern Mexico this weekend as a tropical wave, and
associated low pressure, moves generally west-northwestward well
off the coast of Mexico. Gradual development of this system is
expected during the next few days, and a tropical depression is
likely to form later this weekend or early next week. There is a
medium chance of tropical formation within the next two days, and
a high chance within the next seven days.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh E winds are occurring in the Gulf of Papagayo,
supported by low pressure over northern Colombia and enhanced by
a tropical wave moving westward through Central America. Gentle
to locally moderate winds prevail elsewhere north of the monsoon
trough. To the south, moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds
are noted. Seas of 5 to 7 ft in S to SW swell prevail over the
waters offshore of Central and South America.

For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh E winds will
pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo this weekend as low pressure
prevails over the south-central Caribbean. Winds will strengthen
early next week as the pressure gradient increases between the
aforementioned low and building high pressure over central
Mexico. Otherwise, south of the monsoon trough, moderate to
occasionally fresh S to SW winds are expected. Moderate seas in
S to SW swell will prevail over the regional waters.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Ridging extends over the eastern Pacific waters north of the
monsoon trough and ITCZ, anchored by a 1023 mb high centered
north of the area near 33N139W. Moderate NE winds are noted in
this region. Residual rough seas in mixed N and E swell, in part
induced by swells from the remnant low of Flossie, are noted over
the north-central waters north of 25N between 120W and 130W.
Elsewhere, south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, a southern
hemisphere swell is leading to rough seas south of the equator.
Moderate to locally fresh SE winds prevail in this area.

For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh NE winds are
expected north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ tonight into early
next week as high pressure builds to the north. Rough seas in the
north-central waters, north of 25N between 120W and 130W, will
subside by tonight. South of the monsoon trough, rough seas in S
to SW swell will slowly subside by Sat morning. Looking ahead,
fresh to occasionally strong winds and rough seas will occur off
the coast of southern Mexico this weekend as a tropical wave, and
associated low pressure, moves generally west-northwestward well
off the coast of Mexico. Gradual development of this system is
expected during the next few days, and a tropical depression is
likely to form later this weekend or early next week. There is a
medium chance of tropical formation within the next two days, and
a high chance within the next seven days.

$$
ADAMS