714
AXPZ20 KNHC 141433
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed May 14 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1430 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 11N115W to 10N120W.
The ITCZ continues from 10N120W to beyond 06N140W. Numerous
moderate to isolated strong convection is active from 04N to 10N
between 85W and 95W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted elsewhere from 02N to 11N E of 108W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Moderate to fresh NW winds are off the Baja California peninsula
as well as off Cabo Corrientes. Gentle to moderate winds are
elsewhere over the discussion waters...including in the Gulf of
California. Seas are in the 7-9 ft range off Baja California
Norte and 5-7 ft off Baja California Sur. Seas of 4-6 ft are
elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico. In the northern Gulf
of California, seas are in the 3-4 ft range while seas are 3 ft
or less over the remainder of the Gulf.

For the forecast, a ridge extends from 1033 mb high pressure near
38N139W southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands, while low
pressure prevails over Mexico. This pattern will support fresh
winds west of the Baja California peninsula and off the coasts of
Jalisco and Colima through tonight, with large NW swell west of
the Baja peninsula into Fri. Moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas, primarily in SW swell, will prevail elsewhere.
A late season cold front will move into Baja California and the
northern Gulf of California Sat and Sat night. Strong SW gap
winds and rough seas are possible late Sat over the northern Gulf
of California ahead of the front.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh winds are over and downstream the Gulf of Papagayo. Light
to gentle winds are elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. Gentle to
moderate winds are south of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the
5-7 ft range between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, and 4-5
ft elsewhere. Seas are in the 7-9 ft range west of Baja
California Norte and 5-7 ft west of Baja California Sur. Seas of
4-6 ft prevail over the remainder of the open waters off Mexico.
Seas are in the 3-4 ft range in the northern Gulf of California,
and 3 ft or less over the remainder of the Gulf.

For the forecast, numerous showers and thunderstorms will persist
over the offshore waters from Colombia to Costa Rica through at
least Sat. Fresh winds over the Gulf of Papagayo will diminish
today. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the region
through Sat, then diminish through Sun. Expect moderate to rough
seas in long period SW swell between Ecuador and the Galapagos
Islands through Thu. Slight to moderate seas, primarily in SW
swell, will prevail elsewhere.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....

A ridge prevails over the waters north of 20N and west of 110W.
The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the
vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate trade winds north of
the ITCZ and west of 120W. NW swell is bringing seas of 8-9 ft
over the waters north of a line from 20N140W to 27N120W.
Elsewhere seas north of the ITCZ are in the 5-7 ft range. Gentle
to locally moderate winds and seas of 5-6 ft are noted elsewhere
in a mix of swell.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
over the waters north of 20N and low pressure in the vicinity of
the ITCZ will support moderate to fresh NE winds north of the
ITCZ and west of 120W through the remainder of the week and the
weekend. The NW swell will combine with seas from trade winds
from 10N to 20N west of 130W through the latter part of the week.

$$
AL