942
AXPZ20 KNHC 012051
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed Oct 1 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Octave is centered near 12.0N 116.3W at 01/2100
UTC, moving northwest at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 994 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with
gusts to 65 kt. Peak seas are currently around 19 ft (5.5 m).
Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 10N to 13N
between 115W and 120W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is elsewhere from 04N to 15N between 114W and 122W.
Octave is currently moving northwestward, with a west-
northwestward track is likely over the next day or so. Later in
the forecast period, a turn to the north is expected, followed by
a turn to the east around the end of the forecast period. Little
change in strength is forecast during the next 36 hours, with a
slight increase in intensity in a couple of days. Please read the
latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane
Center at website
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Octave NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 11N106W. It resumes
from 10N121W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted from 03N to 09N and E of 90W, and from 05N
to 15N between 95W and 110W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features for details on Tropical
Storm Octave located well SW of the offshore waters.

Moderate N-NE winds are noted over and downstream the Gulf of
Tehuantepec. Moderate NW-N winds are west of the Baja California
peninsula, extending southward to the waters W of the
Revillagigedo Islands. Light to gentle are over the remainder of
the offshore waters E of 110W, including the Gulf of California.
Seas are in the 5-6 ft range over the open waters off Mexico in
mixed S-SW and W-NW swell. Seas are 3 ft or less in the Gulf of
California, reaching 4 ft near the entrance of the Gulf.

For the forecast, other than Tropical Storm Octave, which is
forecast to remain beyond the offshore waters, moderate to
locally fresh winds will persist offshore Baja California N of
Cabo San Lazaro through the remainder of the week and into the
weekend, locally strong near Sebastian Vizcaino Bay at times.
Moderate to fresh N-NE winds will pulse in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec through early Sat, locally strong at times. NW swell
will arrive offshore Baja Cailfornia Thu, building seas to rough
in the outer waters through Sat. An area of low pressure is
expected to form within a broad area of disturbed weather off the
coast of southwestern Mexico in a couple of days. Thereafter,
environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
additional development, and a tropical depression will likely
form late this week or this weekend while the system moves
generally west-northwestward, parallel to but offshore of the
southwestern coast of Mexico. Regardless of development, expect
increasing winds and seas over these waters.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds are N of the monsoon trough. Moderate SW-W
winds prevail S of the monsoon trough. Seas are 4-5 ft in S-SW
swell across the waters. Scattered convection is noted near the
coasts and extending southward across the offshore waters as
described above, possibly leading to locally higher winds and
seas.

For the forecast, mostly light to gentle winds will prevail N of
the monsoon trough, with brief surges of moderate to locally
fresh winds early Thu. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are
expected S of the monsoon trough. Southerly swell will build
slightly toward the end of the week and upcoming weekend.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please refer to the Special Features for details on Tropical
Storm Octave.

The 1013 mb remnant low of Post-Tropical Cyclone Narda is
located near 22.5N127.5W. No deep convection is present with the
remnant low. Moderate winds are currently in the N semicircle,
with seas of 6-7 ft. A set of NW swell with seas of 8-10 ft is
over the NW waters. Seas are mainly 4-7 ft outside of Octave.
Winds are mainly moderate or weaker across the open waters away
from Tropical Storm Octave.

For the forecast, Octave will move to 12.4N 117.1W Thu morning,
12.9N 118.2W Thu afternoon, 13.3N 119.3W Fri morning, 13.8N
120.9W Fri afternoon, 14.4N 122.2W Sat morning, and 14.9N 123.4W
Sat afternoon. Octave will change little in intensity as it moves
to near 15.6N 124.0W Sun afternoon. The remnant low of Narda
will drift W-SW and gradually spin down, and open up into a
trough tonight, with associated and residual winds and seas
decreasing through then. A front or frontal trough and northerly
swell will impact the northern waters, with associated swell
spreading eastward to near Baja California through the end of the
week. High pressure to the NW of the area will build
southeastward into the NW waters behind this front/trough, with
moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds gradually expanding there
by the end of the week into the weekend. Winds will increase to
fresh to locally strong S of the monsoon trough, mainly E of 125W
by the end of the week into the weekend, as an area of low
pressure possibly develops offshore of SW Mexico. These winds may
build seas to rough S of the monsoon trough. Meanwhile, a new
set of large southerly swell will propagate toward the equator
during the upcoming weekend.

$$
AL