720
AXPZ20 KNHC 110920
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Sep 11 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0855 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Norbert is centered near 16.6N 123.3W at 11/0900
UTC, moving west at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
996 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60
kt. Peak seas are 18 ft within 120 nm NE quadrant of the center.
Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted from
14N to 20N and between 117W and 124W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is present from 09N to 14N and between 117W and
121W. A general W motion is expected to continue over the next
few days. Some strengthening is forecast, and Norbert could
become a hurricane this weekend.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Fourteen-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis along 113W, south of 20N, moving
westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present
from 05N to 16N between 105W and 115W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 08N102W to 12N120W,
then continues SW of Norbert from 11N125W to 10N139W. Scattered
moderate convection is found from 07N to 13N and between 95W and
104W. Similar convection is occurring south of 13N and west of
125W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for more information
about Tropical Storm Norbert located well SW of Baja California.

A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured fresh to locally
strong northerly winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas in
these waters are 5-7 ft. Elsewhere, high pressure north of the
area extends extends southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands.
Moderate easterly winds and moderate seas are occurring west of
the Revillagigedo Islands as Tropical Storm Norbert continues to
pull away. Elsewhere in the Mexican offshore waters, moderate or
weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to affect
the central and southern Gulf of California and the nearshore
waters of Baja California Sur. Gusty winds and higher seas are
likely occurring with these storms.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Norbert is near 16.6N 123.3W at
2 AM PDT, and is moving west at 13 kt. Maximum sustained winds
are 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt, and the minimum central pressure
is 996 mb. Norbert will move to 16.7N 125.0W this afternoon and
continue to move westward away from the area. As Norbert moves
away, a stronger ridge will build across the offshore waters of
Baja California, bringing moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds
Sun into early next week. Winds will also increase across the
northern Gulf of California today and tonight, then again Sun
through Mon night due to the pressure gradient between the ridge
and the meandering trough that is in place in that area.
Otherwise, fresh to strong N to NE gap winds will pulse again
early next week.

Looking ahead, showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad
area of low pressure are located several hundred miles southwest
of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Gradual development of this
system is anticipated, and a tropical depression is likely to
form by early next week while it moves generally west-
northwestward to westward over the central and western portions
of the East Pacific. This system has a high chance of tropical
cyclone formation through 7 days.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

High pressure north of the area forces fresh to strong easterly
trade winds and rough seas across the Gulf of Papagayo region,
extending downstream to 89W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds
and moderate seas are prevalent. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are occurring off Panama and Colombia. Gusty winds
and higher seas are likely occurring with these storms.

For the forecast, a ridge north of the area will continue to
support pulsing fresh to strong easterly winds and moderate to
rough seas across the Papagayo region through early next week.
Meanwhile, gentle to moderate southerly winds and moderate seas
are expected over the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos
through at least the middle of next week. Moderate or lighter
winds and moderate seas in long period SW swell are forecast
elsewhere.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section for more information
about Tropical Storm Norbert located well SW of Baja California.

Away from the impacts of Norbert, moderate to locally fresh SE
winds and rough seas are found south of 04N and west of the
Galapagos Islands to 125W. The strong subtropical ridge located
well north of the area dominates the remainder of the tropical
Eastern Pacific supporting moderate or weaker winds and moderate
seas.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Norbert is near 16.6N 123.3W at
2 AM PDT, and is moving west at 13 kt. Maximum sustained winds
are 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt, and the minimum central pressure
is 996 mb. Norbert will move to 16.7N 125.0W this afternoon,
17.0N 127.2W Sat morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 17.3N
129.2W Sat afternoon, 17.9N 131.1W Sun morning, 18.2N 133.1W Sun
afternoon, and 18.4N 135.1W Mon morning. Norbert will weaken to a
tropical storm over 18.4N 139.2W early Tue.

Elsewhere, a cross equatorial swell will persist over the next
several days producing seas to 9 ft south of 04N. A tight pressure
gradient will result in locally fresh N winds and rough seas in
the NE waters late this weekend into early next week. Meanwhile,
showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure are located several hundred miles southwest of the
southwestern coast of Mexico. Gradual development of this system
is anticipated, and a tropical depression is likely to form by
early next week while it moves generally west-northwestward to
westward over the central and western portions of the East
Pacific.. This system has a high chance of tropical cyclone
formation through 7 days.

$$
Delgado