218
AXPZ20 KNHC 201544
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Jul 20 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Fausto: Fausto is centered near 13.5N 116.4W at
20/1500 UTC, moving west-northwest at 11 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 994 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt
with gusts to 65 kt. Peak seas are near 18 ft. Numerous moderate
and scattered strong convection is observed from 08N-17N between
108W-120W. A decrease in forward speed and a motion toward the
northwest is expected during the next day or two. A turn back to
the west-northwest is expected on Wednesday. Steady to rapid
strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and
Fausto is forecast to become a hurricane later today or tonight.
Swells generated by Fausto are expected to reach the west coast
of the Baja California Peninsula on Wednesday, and persist for a
couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from
your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS
FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Fausto NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Elida: Elida has become a post-tropical
cyclone and is centered near 26.4N 127.2W at 20/1500 UTC, moving
north-northwest at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45
kt. Peak seas are near 22 ft. Scattered moderate convection is
occurring within 240 NM in the N quadrant. A turn to the north
with an increase in forward speed is forecast the during the next
couple days. The post-tropical cyclone is expected to continue
to weaken and should dissipate within the next couple of days.
Swells generated by Elida will affect portions of the west coast
of the Baja California Peninsula and southern California during
the next several days. These swells will likely result in life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.Please read the latest
HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at
website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the
latest Elida NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N83W along the Costa Rica coast
westward to 10N108W, where it breaks for Tropical Storm Fausto.
The monsoon trough begins again at 12N123W to beyond 09N140W.
Isolated moderate convection is occurring north of 03N east of
85W as well as from 05N-10N west of 133W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on
Tropical Storm Fausto, centered about 675 NM southwest of the
southern tip of Baja California, and on Post-tropical Cyclone
Elida, centered about 965 NM miles west-northwest of the
southern tip of Baja California.

Otherwise, moderate to fresh SE winds and 2-4 ft seas are over
the Gulf of California. A small N wind plume of fresh winds and
seas of 6-7 ft in mixed winds waves and S swell are occurring
over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds elsewhere are moderate or
weaker. Seas near the Revillagigedo Islands are 7-9 ft in SE
swell due to Tropical Storm Fausto. Elsewhere seas are 5-6 ft in
S to SW swell.

For the forecast, fresh N winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec
will diminish by this evening. Likewise, moderate to fresh SE
winds over the central and N Gulf of California will weaken by
tonight. NW winds should freshen off Baja California Norte on Wed
and Thu. Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure is forecast
to develop well south of Mexico by midweek. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for development of the system
thereafter, and a tropical depression could form while it moves
westward to west- northwestward away from forecast waters.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Winds are NE fresh to strong over the Gulf of Papagayo region
with seas 6-8 ft. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with
seas 4-5 ft in S swell. Isolated moderate convection is
occurring north of 03N east of 85W.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong NE to E winds will persist
across the Papagayo region through Fri. Elsewhere, quiescent
conditions are expected for the next several days.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on
Tropical Storm Fausto, centered about 675 NM southwest of the
southern tip of Baja California, and on Post-tropical Cyclone
Elida, centered about 965 NM miles west-northwest of the
southern tip of Baja California.

Fausto and Elida dominate conditions over the High Seas forecast
waters today. Away from these two systems, the only winds that
are fresh are south of the equator west of 100W. These SE winds
are accompanied by 8-9 ft seas. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or
weaker and seas are 6-7 ft in mixed seas.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Fausto will strengthen to a
hurricane near 14.4N 117.5W this evening, move to 15.4N 119.0W
Tue morning, 16.1N 120.6W Tue evening, 16.6N 122.1W Wed morning,
16.9N 124.0W Wed evening, and 17.3N 126.3W Thu morning. Fausto
will change little in intensity as it moves to 18.0N 131.5W early
Fri. Post-Tropical Cyclone Elida will move to 28.5N 127.4W this
evening, 31.1N 127.6W Tue morning, 33.6N 127.4W Tue evening,
35.6N 127.1W Wed morning, 37.7N 126.6W Wed evening, and dissipate
Thu morning. Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure is
forecast to develop well south of Mexico by midweek.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of the
system thereafter, and a tropical depression could form while it
moves westward to west-northwestward across the eastern and
central portions of the eastern Pacific.

$$
Landsea