905
AXPZ20 KNHC 232155
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Aug 23 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

South of Southwestern Mexico:
A tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms several hundred miles south of the coast of
southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression
is likely to form by early next week while it moves generally
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph well off the coast of Mexico.
There is a medium chance of formation within the next 48 hours,
and a high chance within the next 7 days.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is along 89.5W, from 05N northward
through western El Salvador into eastern Guatemala, moving
toward the west around 5 kt. Nearby convection is described
below in the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section.

The axis of a tropical wave is along 106.5W, from 07N to 19N,
moving toward the west around 10 kt. Nearby convection is
described below in the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section.

The axis of a tropical wave is along 118W, from 06N to 18N,
moving toward the west around 10 kt. Nearby convection is
described below in the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N84W to a 1010 mb low
near 14N104W to 14.5N110W to beyond 11N140W. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is occurring from 06N to 11N east
of 92W, and from 10N to 18N between 104W and 110W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 07N to 14N between 94W and
100W, from 08N to 16N between 112W to 132W, and from 09N to 11N
west of 136W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface trough has been analyzed from the northern Gulf of
California southward along the Baja California Peninsula. Recent
scatterometer satellite data showed moderate SE winds in the
northern Gulf of California, and gentle to locally moderate SE
winds in the central and southern Gulf, with seas of 1 to 3 ft.
Elsewhere, scatterometer data show moderate to locally fresh SE
to NE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are occurring offshore of
Michoacan and Guerrero near the northern extent of a tropical
wave along 106.5W. Weak ridging prevails over the remainder of
the Mexico offshore waters, supporting gentle to moderate winds.
Seas of 4 to 6 ft seas in NW swell prevail offshore of Baja
California, with 5 to 6 ft seas in S to SW swell offshore of
southern Mexico.

For the forecast, a tropical wave is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms several hundred miles south of the
coast of southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression is likely to form by early next week while it moves
generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph well off the coast
of Mexico. There is a medium chance of formation within the next
48 hours, and a high chance within the next 7 days. Elsewhere,
moderate to fresh SE winds are expected periodically in the Gulf
of California into the middle of next week. Looking ahead,
moderate to fresh N to NE gap winds will develop in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec on Mon, with strong winds and locally rough seas
possible by midweek.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate E to NE gap winds are noted via scatterometer satellite
data in the Gulf of Papagayo as low pressure prevails over
northwestern Colombia. Gentle winds are occurring elsewhere north
of the monsoon trough. Farther south, moderate to fresh SE to S
winds are occurring south of the monsoon trough. Recent altimeter
satellite data showed 5 to 7 ft seas in S swell over these
waters, with seas to 8 ft noted south of the Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, a long-period Southern Hemisphere swell will
lead to rough seas offshore of Ecuador today, and offshore of
Colombia and much of Central America by early next week. Very
rough seas will be possible south of the equator offshore of
Ecuador Sun morning into early Mon. Seas will slowly subside
through the middle of next week. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh NE
to E gap winds are expected in the Gulf of Papagayo through early
next week, with winds increasing to strong speeds by midweek.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1023 mb high centered near 31N140W extends ridging through the
eastern Pacific waters north of the monsoon trough. A moderate
pressure gradient between these features is supporting locally
fresh NE winds and 8 ft seas in mixed NE and SE swell from 12N to
20N west of 135W. Gentle to moderate N to NE winds and 4 to 6 ft
seas, observed on recent altimeter satellite data, prevail
elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. South of the monsoon
trough, moderate to fresh S to SE winds are noted. Rough seas to
8 ft in mixed SE and SW swell are occurring from 05N to 10N
between 100W and 125W. Farther south, a long-period Southern
Hemisphere swell is promoting 8 ft seas south of the equator.

For the forecast, rough seas from 05N to 10N will expand
northward to near 15N by early next week as a tropical depression
likely forms and moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15
mph well off the coast of Mexico. There is a medium chance of
formation within the next 48 hours, and a high chance within the
next 7 days. Farther south, a long-period Southern Hemisphere
swell will lead to rough seas south of the equator through late
tonight before merging with a wide expanse of rough seas farther
north. Rough seas are expected to slowly diminish by midweek
before another long-period SE to SW swell moves into the southern
waters late next week. Moderate to fresh S to SE winds are
expected south of the monsoon trough through the forecast period.
North of the monsoon trough, moderate to locally fresh N to NE
winds and moderate seas will prevail.

$$
ADAMS