627
AXPZ20 KNHC 300406
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed Jul 30 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western East Pacific Low (EP98): Showers and thunderstorms
associated with an area of low pressure located around 1090 nmi
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands have decreased since
earlier today. However, if persistent showers and thunderstorms
re-develop during the next day or so, a short-lived tropical
depression is likely to form. The system will enter the Central
Pacific basin tonight. This system has a high chance of
formation within the next 48 hours and within 7 days.

South of Southwestern Mexico (EP99): A trough of low pressure
located about 430 nmi south of the southwestern coast of Mexico
is producing a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during
the next couple of days while the system moves west-northwestward
around 13 kt, remaining well offshore of the southwestern coast
of Mexico. This system has a high chance of formation within the
next 48 hours and within 7 days.

Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details about these invests.

Tsunami Threat: A powerful 8.8 magnitude earthquake occured at
2325 UTC July 29 off the east coast of Kamchatka, Russia. This
event may generate tsunami waves up to 3 meters across the
offshore and coastal waters from Guatemala to Ecuador. Mariners
and coastal interests should consult local authorities and visit
https://tsunami.gov for the latest information and guidance.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends from 03N to inland Guatemala with axis
near 90W, moving westward at 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 05N to 16N between 85W and 95W.

A tropical wave extends from 04N to 19N with axis near 123W,
moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 10N to 16N between 119W and 126W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to a 1008 mb low near
11N105W to a 1008 mb low near 11N137W to 08N140W. Aside from the
convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate
to strong convection associated with Invest EP99 extends from 04N
to 16N between 95W and 115W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Strong to near-gale force N to NE winds prevail in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec as a strong pressure gradient prevails between an
approaching tropical wave and high pressure over the western Gulf
of America. Fresh to locally strong E winds associated with the
broad circulation of Invest EP99 along with rough seas to 8 ft
continue to affect the offshore waters from Oaxaca to Guerrero.

A surface trough analyzed along the Gulf of California and surface
ridging extending into the Baja California offshore waters are
tightening the pressure gradient over the region. This is leading
to moderate to fresh NW winds and seas to 5 ft north of Cabo San
Lazaro. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds are elsewhere with 3
to 5 ft seas, except to 3 ft in the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, Invest EP99, located near 11N105W at 0000 UTC,
is likely to develop into a tropical depression during the next
couple of days while the system moves west-northwestward,
remaining well offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico.
Regardless of development, fresh to strong winds associated with
this broad area of low pressure will continue to affect the
offshore waters of Oaxaca and Guerrero through Wed morning, and
Michoacan and Jalisco thereafter through Wed night. Near-gale
force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will diminish to fresh to
strong speeds Wed morning and to moderate to fresh speeds early
Sun.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to locally fresh E to NE winds and moderate seas in S
swell are occurring in the Gulf of Papagayo. South of the
trough, and between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, gentle to
moderate S to SW winds are noted with moderate seas to 6 ft.
Light to gentle winds are ongoing elsewhere.

For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh E to NE winds
and moderate seas are expected in the Gulf of Papagayo through
Thu as low pressure prevails in the south-central Caribbean, and
an area of low pressure strengthens to the west. Winds are
expected to strengthen to strong speeds late this week, and fresh
winds will extend through the waters offshore of El Salvador and
Guatemala. Looking ahead, a long-period SW swell may lead to
rough seas offshore of South America by late week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

See the Special Features section above for information on Invests
EP98 and EP99.

Moderate to fresh NE to SE winds are occurring near a tropical
wave analyzed along 123W. Otherwise, ridging extends over much
of the eastern Pacific north of the monsoon trough, and
widespread moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate seas are
occurring in this region. However, gentle winds and slight seas
are noted north of 25N and west of 130W, near the center of the
high pressure. South of the monsoon trough, moderate to fresh SE
winds prevail, with widespread fresh winds and locally rough seas
occurring near the low pressure analyzed near 11N104W, EP99.

For the forecast, a well-defined area of low pressure is located
about 1400 miles east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. If the
thunderstorms persist or increase, this system will likely become
a tropical depression or tropical storm while it moves westward
into the Central Pacific basin. This system has a high chance of
formation within the next 48 hours. Elsewhere, a trough of low
pressure is located about 500 miles south of the southwestern
coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during
the next couple of days while the system moves west-northwestward
around 15 mph, remaining well offshore of the southwestern coast
of Mexico. This system has a high chance of formation within the
next 48 hours.

$$
Ramos