641
AXPZ20 KNHC 101549
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu Sep 10 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Norbert is centered near 16.5N 119.3W at 10/1500
UTC, moving west at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45
kt. Peak seas are 15 ft within 90 nm NE quadrant of the center.
Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 14.5N to
17.5N between 117W and 120W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is elsewhere from 15N to 19N between 115W and
117W. Norbert is moving toward the west, and this motion is
expected to continue through Friday. A turn toward the west-
northwest is forecast by Friday night. Gradual strengthening is
forecast over the next several days.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Fourteen-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 95W north of 03N through the Gulf of
Tehuantepec. The wave is moving westward at about 15 kt.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong conveciton is seen from
09N to 11N between 93W and 97W.

A tropical wave has its axis along 110W north of 03N. It is
moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is observed from 10N to 17N between 102W and
112W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 07N100W to 10N111W,
then continues SW of T.S. Norbert from 12N120W to 10N140W. In
addition to the convection associated with Norbert and the
tropical waves, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is noted from 03N to 08N E of 89W to the coast of Colombia, and
from 00N to 10N between 119W and 127W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Moderate to fresh SE winds and seas up to 8 ft associated with
the outer periphery of Tropical Storm Norbert are affecting
Clarion Island.  Fresh to strong N gap winds continue across the
Tehuantepec region and downwind to near 14.5N. Moderate to
locally rough seas are with these winds. Light to gentle winds
dominate the offshore waters of Baja California under the
influence of a weak ridge with the high pressure centered near
30N127W. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas are present
elsewhere across the remaining Mexican offshore waters.

For the forecast, Norbert will move to 16.5N 121.2W this evening,
16.5N 123.7W Fri morning, 16.6N 125.9W Fri evening, 17.0N 127.9W
Sat morning, 17.4N 129.7W Sat evening, and 17.9N 131.4W Sun morning.
Norbert will strengthen to a hurricane near 18.4N 134.7W early
Mon. A trailing tropical wave is forecast to provide mainly
moderate to fresh SE winds to the SW Mexican offshore waters
through today. Otherwise, fresh to strong N to NE gap winds will
continue to pulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through early
Fri. Looking ahead, showers and thunderstorms associated with a
broad area of low pressure are located several hundred miles
southwest of the southwestern Mexico coast. Gradual development
of this system is expected, and a tropical depression is likely
to form by early next week while it moves generally westward over
central and western portions of the East Pacific.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong northeast to east winds are blowing in the Papagayo
region and downwind to 90W, with moderate to rough. Gentle to
moderate SE to S winds are across the offshores between Ecuador
and the Galapagos Islands along with moderate seas. Otherwise,
moderate or weaker winds with slight to moderate seas prevail
elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support
fresh to strong easterly winds, and moderate to rough seas across
the Gulf of Papagayo region through Fri, then mainly moderate to
fresh winds and moderate seas are forecast. Meanwhile, moderate
to fresh southerly winds are expected over the waters between
Ecuador and the Galapagos through tonight, then diminishing some
afterward. Moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas in long
period SW swell are forecast elsewhere.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please, see the Special Features section for more information
about Tropical Storm Norbert.

Aside from Norbert and the tropical waves previously mentioned,
a surface trough is analyzed from 22N131W to 13N132W. Latest
scatterometer data indicate the wind shift associated with the
trough. A ridge dominates the waters N of 20N and W of 110W.
Mainly light to gentle winds and moderate seas are noted under
the influence of the ridge. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds
along with seas of 5 to 7 ft are over the remainder of the
eastern Pacific forecast region.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Norbert will move to 16.5N 121.2W
this evening, 16.5N 123.7W Fri morning, 16.6N 125.9W Fri evening,
17.0N 127.9W Sat morning, 17.4N 129.7W Sat evening, and 17.9N
131.4W Sun morning. Norbert will strengthen to a hurricane near
18.4N 134.7W early Mon.

$$
GR