366
AXPZ20 KNHC 091622
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Jun 9 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Post-Tropical Cyclone Boris is now centered inland near 16.9N
98.9W at 1500 UTC, moving northwest at 6 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25
kt with gusts to 35 kt. Large S-SW swell continues to move into
the local area waters, producing seas of 3.0 to 3.5 m within 90
nm of the coast in this area. Scattered moderate convection is
inland with Boris between 97W and 99W and extends southward over
water to 15.5N. Elsewhere scattered moderate to strong
convection is N of 13.5N between 92W and 101W. The remnants of
Boris are expected to move west-northwestward until the system
dissipates completely in 12 hours or so. Although Boris is
decaying, there is a continued threat of heavy rainfall, which is
the primary hazard of this slow-moving system. These rains will
likely result in flash flooding and mudslides in mountainous
terrain through today. This rainfall will likely produce life-
threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep
terrain. Along the coast, large cross-equatorial S-SW swell is
subsiding across the regional waters this morning, but will
continue to produce large and powerful surf along the southern
Mexican coast through tonight. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS
FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Boris NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Tropical Storm Cristina is centered near 12.5N 87.7W at 1500
UTC, nearly stationary. Estimated minimum central pressure is
1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45
kt. Peak seas are currently around 16 ft or 4.5 m. Strong
northeasterly vertical wind shear continues to plague Cristina,
limiting intensification. Scattered to numerous moderate to
strong convection is noted N of 07.5N between 86W and 90W.
Cristina is moving toward the north- northeast. Cristina is
forecast to meander near the coast today as it remains under
hostile upper level conditions, and is expected to turn toward
the northwest and west- northwest through midweek. On the
forecast track, Cristina should move near or along the coast of
Nicaragua, the Gulf of Fonseca, and El Salvador during the next
couple of days. Little change in strength is forecast today,
followed by some weakening through midweek. Heavy rainfall associated
with Cristina will impact coastal portions of Central America
through Thursday. This rainfall may produce life- threatening
flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. In
addition, large cross-equatorial S-SW swell is slowly subsiding
across the regional waters this morning, but will continue to
produce large and powerful surf along the southern Mexican coast
through Wed morning. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Cristina NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A monsoon trough extends from 10N75.5W to 10.5N85W, then resumes
well SW of Boris from 12N101W to 08N123W. The ITCZ extends from
08N123W to 08.5N136W. Other than the convection described above
and associated with Boris and Cristina, scattered moderate
convection is noted from 01S to 09N E of 84.5W, and from 03.5N to
07N W of 127W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
noted from 07N to 12N between 92W and 106W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for details on Tropical
Storm Boris near the coast of southern/SW Mexico.

Otherwise, a broad ridge extends from a 1028 mb high well NE of
the Hawaiian Islands near 35N148W southeastward to W of the
Revillagigedo Islands near 20N120W. Broad low pressure extends
from southern California SSE across the eastern coast of Baja
California Norte. This pattern is supporting moderate N-NW
winds offshore of Baja California Norte, within fresh winds
across the outer waters, and gentle to moderate winds offshore
Baja California Sur. NW winds near the coast at Cabo San Lucas
continue to wrap round the southern end of the peninsula, resulting
in fresh westerly winds near the southern tip of Baja
California, while a few areas of moderate to fresh W gap winds
prevail inside the southern Gulf of California, mainly from 24N
to 25.5N. Seas of 7 to 8 ft in merging N and S-SW swell prevail
across the Baja waters, except 9 to 10 ft N through W of Isla
Guadalupe. Moderate S to SW winds are in the northern Gulf of
California N of 30N where seas are 1-3 ft, and 4-7 ft in the
southern Gulf with southerly swell moving through the
entrance. Moderate to fresh NW to W winds are found elsewhere
from Cabo Corrientes to the area S of Boris, where seas are 8-14
ft in large, cross- equatorial S-SW swell, and extend across
across the rest of the Mexican near and offshore waters.

For the forecast, Post-Tropical Cyclone Boris will move west-
northwest today and remain inland, and gradually dissipate by
this evening. Elsewhere, a broad surface ridge will sustain
gentle to moderate NW winds across the Baja Norte waters through
Wed, and across the Baja Sur to Revillagigedo Islands through
early Wed before weakening, except moderate to fresh NW-N winds
and moderate to rough seas across the far outer waters of Baja
Norte. Large, cross equatorial S-SW swell will continue to
impact southern and southwestern Mexico waters through tonight,
and the Baja California waters through Wed, and will generate
very large and powerful surf along the local coasts and offshore
reefs. This swell will also merge with shorter period NW swell
across the Baja waters. Marine conditions should significantly
improve by the end of the week and into the upcoming weekend,
with tranquil conditions across the offshore waters of Mexico.

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Please see the Special Features section for details on Tropical
Storm Cristina, just offshore of NW Nicaragua. Cristina remains
in a hostile upper-level environment and has become nearly
stationary this morning.

Fresh to strong SW to W winds dominate the waters around Cristina
from 09.5N to 13.5N between 86W and 90W, with winds blowing
offshore across the coastal waters of El Salvador and Guatemala,
and then become NW to W moderate to fresh there farther
offshore. Winds are gentle to moderate across the remainder of
the waters including southern Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, and
Ecuador. Large, cross-equatorial southerly swell continues to
impact the offshore waters of Central America and northern South
America with seas of 7-13 ft.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Cristina will move to 12.6N
87.8W this evening, reach near 12.9N 88.4W Wed morning, weaken
to a tropical depression near 13.2N 89.0W Wed evening, move
inland near 13.7N 89.5W and become post-tropical Thu morning and
then gradually dissipate Thu evening. Otherwise, large cross-
equatorial S-SW swell with seas of 8-14 ft will continue to
impact the area waters into early Wed, resulting in large and
powerful surf along the coasts. Refer to your local
meteorological information for more details on the surf zone and
beach impacts. Moderate seas will prevail across the offshore
waters for the end of the week. Mainly moderate or weaker winds
will prevail away from Cristina through the remainder of the week
and into the upcoming weekend.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The 1009 mb Remnant Low of Amanda is analyzed near 11N139.5W.
Small clusters of moderate convection are noted within 90 nm
across the N semicircle. Fresh to strong NE winds are found
within 240 nm in the NW semicircle, with seas of 7-10 ft are
found from 09.5N to 15N between 135W to beyond 140W. Otherwise, a
broad ridge extends from a 1028 mb high well NE of the Hawaiian
Islands near 35N148W southeastward to W of the Revillagigedo
Islands. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds are found elsewhere S of
the ridge to 12N and W of 120W. Seas are 6-9 ft elsewhere N of
10N and W of 120W as well as across the waters E of 120W, higher
N of 08N and E of 104W closer to Boris and Tropical Storm
Cristina. Seas are 6-7 ft S of 09.5N and W of 120W.

For the forecast, the Remnant Low of Amanda will continue to
spin down and weaken early in the week, moving W of 140W later
today. Moderate to locally fresh trades will continue to
dominate the waters N of 10N and W of 120W under ridging through
tonight or so, then will weaken as the gradient weakens by the
middle through the end of the week. Winds will be moderate or
weaker elsewhere through tonight into early Wed, except higher
near the offshore waters of southern Mexico and northern Central
America near Boris and Cristina. Meanwhile, northerly swell in
the N-central waters will produce seas of 7-10 ft for the next
several days. Large cross-equatorial southerly swell will
continue northward through the regional waters through tonight
into early Wed, while merging with the northerly swell. Moderate
seas will dominate the open waters by the end of the week into
the upcoming weekend.

$$
Stripling