437
AXPZ20 KNHC 211539
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Feb 21 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure over NE
Mexico forces strong to gale-force northerly winds across the Gulf
of Tehuantepec. These winds will continue through Sat morning.
Peak seas to 12 ft are expected near and downstream of the
strongest winds. Winds will diminish below strong force and seas
below 8 ft by Sun morning.

For details, please refer to the latest NWS High Seas and
Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center
at the websites:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores_eastpac.php for more
details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N82W to 05N127W. The ITCZ
continues from that point to 05N140W. No significant convection
is noted at this time.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section for information
regarding the Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

A 1025 mb high pressure system located near 33N134W extends
southeastward into the offshore waters of Mexico. A recent
scatterometer satellite pass depicted moderate to fresh NW winds
in the waters off Baja California Norte, especially north of
Punta Eugenia. Seas in these waters are 6-8 ft. Outside of the
Gulf of Tehuantepec, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas
are prevalent in the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters,
including the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, aside from gale force winds in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec, moderate to fresh N to NW winds and rough seas will
occur north of Punta Eugenia through late this morning.
Otherwise, gentle to moderate NW winds will prevail offshore of
southwestern Mexico and in the Gulf of California into Sat.
Looking ahead, moderate to fresh NW winds will develop Sat night
in the central and southern Gulf of California and offshore of
southwestern Mexico as a strengthening pressure gradient develops
between building high pressure in the eastern Pacific and
troughing in western Mexico.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The tight pressure gradient between a 1042 mb high pressure
system over the central United States and lower pressures in the
deep tropics result in fresh to strong easterly trade winds
across the Gulf of Papagayo and downstream waters to 90W. Seas
in these waters are 4-7 ft. Farther west, moderate to fresh
northerly winds and seas to 10 ft are found in the far offshore
waters of Guatemala due to the gap wind event occurring in the
Gulf of Tehuantepec. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and
slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, pulsing fresh to strong NE to E winds will
prevail in the Gulf of Papagayo through Sun night due to a
strong ridge north of the Caribbean waters. The strongest winds
are expected each night and morning, and rough seas will occur
near and downstream of these winds. Moderate to fresh N winds
will continue well offshore of Guatemala through late this
morning, generated by gale force winds in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec. Rough seas of 8 to 10 ft will occur in this region
through early Sat. Elsewhere, winds will pulse to moderate to
occasionally strong speeds in the Gulf of Panama each night and
morning tonight through the weekend. Otherwise, gentle to
moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail across
the remainder of the offshore waters of Central and South America
into early next week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1025 mb high pressure system centered north of the tropical
eastern Pacific supports moderate to fresh easterly trade winds
north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ and west of 105W. Seas in
these waters are 6-9 ft. Farther east, moderate to fresh NE-E
winds and moderate seas are found north of 08N and east of 105W
in association with downstream winds from the gap wind event
occurring in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Elsewhere, moderate or
weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, fresh N to NE winds and rough seas will
prevail north of 10N and west of 105W through early next week.
Mixed NW and W swell will produce rough seas north of 05N and
west of 130W through today before seas diminish into this
weekend. Rough seas generated by gap winds in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec and Gulf of Papagayo will prevail from 05N to 15N and
as far west as 110W into this weekend. Otherwise, ridging
extending through the eastern Pacific waters will support
moderate N to NE winds elsewhere north of the monsoon trough.
Looking ahead, a long-period NW swell will lead to rough seas
north of 20N and west of 130W by early next week.

$$
ERA