099
AXPZ20 KNHC 230300
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sun Feb 23 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0255 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 05N95W to 05N110W and
to 03N127W. The ITCZ stretches from 03N127W to beyond 04N140W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 15N and between
100W and 125W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The subtropical ridge positioned near 31N130W extends
southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient
between this high pressure and lower pressures in Mexico result
in moderate to fresh NW winds in the central and southern Gulf of
California. Seas in these waters are 2-4 ft. Mainly moderate
northerly winds and seas of 5-8 ft are found in the offshore
waters of Baja California and SW Mexico. The highest seas are
occurring in the far NW waters of Baja California Norte,
northwest of Guadalupe Island. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds
and slight to moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, near-gale force NE winds will prevail across
the Tehuantepec region through the weekend, while strong winds
will persist through Tue morning. Rough seas are forecast with
the strongest winds. Moderate to fresh NW winds will continue
into Mon night in the central and southern Gulf of California and
offshore of southwestern Mexico due to a tightening pressure
gradient. Seas to 5 ft will accompany these winds. Looking ahead,
moderate to fresh NW winds and NW swell will affect the offshore
waters of Baja California Norte Mon night into Wed, with seas
peaking near 10 ft. The decaying swell will spread into the Baja
California Sur waters late in the week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Strong high pressure to the north of area continues to support
fresh to strong easterly trade winds across the Gulf of Papagayo,
spreading downstream to 91W. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft.
Farther east, fresh to strong northerly winds are affecting the
Gulf of Panama waters, extending southward to 04N. Seas in the
area described are 3-6 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds
and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, pulsing strong to near-gale-force NE to E
winds will prevail in the Gulf of Papagayo through Sun night due
to a strong ridge north of the Caribbean waters. The strongest
winds are expected each night and morning, and rough seas will
occur near and downstream of these winds. The gale-force gap
winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will result in rough seas in the
far offshore waters of Guatemala through Sun. Elsewhere, winds
will pulse to fresh to occasionally strong speeds in the Gulf of
Panama each night and morning tonight through the weekend.
Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas
will prevail across the remainder of the offshore waters of
Central and South America through the forecast period.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A subtropical ridge positioned near 31N130W extends southward
into the tropical eastern Pacific waters. A deep upper level
trough over the western waters is producing a large area of
cloudiness and showers west of 105W and south of 27N. The
aforementioned ridge supports moderate to locally fresh easterly
trade winds south of 25N and west of 105W. Seas in these waters
are 6-8 ft. Farther east, moderate to fresh NE-E winds and 6-8 ft
seas are found north of 06N and east of 105W in association with
downstream winds from the now weakening gap wind event in the
Gulf of Tehuantepec. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, fresh to strong easterly winds will prevail in
the western trade waters through early next week, with seas
building to 10 ft. Rough seas generated by weakening gap winds
in the Gulf of Tehuantepec and Gulf of Papagayo will continue
from 05N to 15N and as far west as 110W through the weekend. The
next NW swell event will reach the NW waters Sun night and
gradually spread eastward. By midweek, a cold front will enter
the NW waters, producing fresh to strong winds and rough to very
rough seas into late in the week.

$$
Delgado