638
AXPZ20 KNHC 121551
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed Feb 12 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from a 1009 mb low pressure located
over northern Colombia to 09N85W to 02N98W to 05N110W to 05N125W.
The ITCZ continues westward from 05N125W to 06N140W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from the Equator to 05N between 96W
and 113w, and from 07N to 10N between 112W and 120W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A 1022 mb high pressure located over the NW corner of the forecast
area near 27N138W extends a ridge eastward toward the Baja
California offshore waters. This system is sustaining moderate
to fresh NW to N winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft west of Baja
California. Mainly moderate to fresh SW to W winds are noted over
parts of the Gulf of California, particularly between 27N and
30.5N with seas of 3 to 5 ft. Elsewhere across the Mexican
offshore waters, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas
prevail.

For the forecast, a broad surface ridge will sustain moderate to
fresh NW to N winds, and moderate to rough seas west of Baja
California today. Both winds and seas are going to diminish
tonight and Thu. Gentle to moderate winds are forecast in the
Gulf of California the remainder of the week, occasionally
reaching fresh speeds. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds with
moderate seas due to long-period northwest swell are expected.
Looking ahead, a cold front will reach the waters N of Punta
Eugenia on Fri followed by fresh NW to N winds and a new set of
long period NW swell, forecast to build seas to 13 or 14 ft. The
next gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region is also expected on
Fri. This will be a brief event with fresh to strong N winds and
moderate to rough seas.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

High pressure over the NW Caribbean continues to support fresh to
locally strong Ne to E winds across the Papagayo region and
downwind to near 89W. Seas with these winds are in the range of
5 to 7 ft. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas in long-period
southwest swell are elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea will continue to allow for pulses of fresh to occasionally
strong northeast to east gap winds in the Papagayo region mainly
at night through Fri night. Peak seas with these winds will
reach to around 7 ft. Light to gentle winds will prevail in the
Gulf of Panama the remainder of the week. Moderate or weaker
winds and slight to moderate seas in long-period southwest swell
will prevail elsewhere during the forecast period.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

As previously mentioned, a 1022 mb high pressure located over
the NW corner of the forecast area near 27N138W dominates most of
the waters N of the ITCZ and W of 110W. The pressure gradient
between the high pressure and lower pressure found in the vicinity
of the ITCZ continues to support an area of fresh to strong trade
winds particularly from 13N to 18N W of 134W. Seas with these
winds are in the range of 8 to 10 ft. Elsewhere, gentle to
moderate winds and moderate seas due to mixed NE and NW swell
remain.

For the forecast, the aforementioned high pressure will continue
to shift southward over the NW forecast waters while weakening
some through Thu as a cold front approaches from the NW to 30N140W.
The cold front will move across the northern forecast waters on
Fri, and extend from near the California/Baja California Norte
border to 27N130W where it will begin to dissipate. Fresh to
strong SW to W winds are expected ahead of the front. Fresh NW to
N winds and a new set of long period NW swell will follow the
front. This swell event will bring building seas to 12 to 16 ft
across the waters N of 28N between 127W and 137W by Thu night
into Fri. As the cold front moves across the N waters, the area
of fresh to strong trade winds will continue to diminish.

$$
GR