190
AXPZ20 KNHC 110910
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Oct 11 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Raymond is centered near 20.9N 109.2W at 11/0900
UTC, moving northwest at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with
gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are around 14 ft, within 60 nm N of
the center. Numerous strong convection is within 90 nm of the
center. Raymond is forecast to turn northward and reach the
southern part of Baja California later today, before moving into
the Gulf of California and dissipating by the end of the
weekend. Rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches with local amounts in
excess of 8 inches are expected across Sonora. This rainfall may
cause flash flooding, especially in areas of higher terrain.
Portions of Baja California, Chihuahua, and the Southwest U.S.
may see 1 to 3 inches of rain, with locally higher amounts, into
early next week, bringing a risk of flash flooding. Swells will
continue to bring high surf and rip currents to parts of the west
coast of Mexico today, and these swells are spreading northward
into the southern Gulf of California and waters offshore Baja
California Sur this morning. Please consult products from your
local weather office.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Tropical Storm Raymond NHC Forecast/Advisories and Public
Advisories at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N90W to 15N100W to
10N131W. The ITCZ then continues along 10N from 131W to 140W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from
05N to 14N, E of 103W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on
Tropical Storm Raymond.

Moderate to fresh NW winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft encompass waters
W of Baja California. Mainly gentle winds and slight seas
dominate the Gulf of California, although winds and seas are
increasing near the entrance to the Gulf where the impacts from
Raymond are commencing. South of 18N, mainly gentle W winds and
seas of 5 to 7 ft in mixed swell prevail. The exception is near
and south of the the Gulf of Tehuantepec, extending to about 13N,
where fresh to locally strong N winds are pulsing early this
morning.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NW winds and moderate
to locally rough seas will impact waters offshore Baja California
this weekend due to the pressure gradient between high pressure
building southward offshore California and the low pressure of
Raymond. Strong gap winds will diminish slightly today in the
Gulf of Tehuantepec before pulsing again tonight.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Deep monsoonal moisture is leading to convection offshore
Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama, where moderate to locally
fresh SW winds are present. These winds extend across the
remainder of waters S of the monsoon trough. To the north, mainly
gentle winds prevail. Seas are 5 to 7 ft.

For the forecast, generally southwest winds and seas will remain
south of the monsoon trough through early next week. A very
moist and unstable atmospheric environment will be favorable for
showers and thunderstorms to develop over the regional waters
into next week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Overall ridging over waters N of the monsoon trough prevails,
with mainly moderate N to NE flow and seas of 5 to 7 ft. S of
the monsoon trough, gentle to moderate southerly winds flow with
similar seas of 5 to 7 ft.

For the forecast, a cold front will approach 30N today before
dissipate, but high pressure will build in its wake, leading to
increasing N to NE winds and enhanced swell for the start of next
week across waters N of 25N. By mid-week, the pressure gradient
will relax and winds and seas will diminish across most of the
basin.

$$
Konarik