544
AXPZ20 KNHC 031948
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Mar 3 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough is noted from 01.5S81W to 03.4S87W to 03.4S103W
to 00.5S113W. The ITCZ extends from 04N120W to beyond 01.5N140W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01S to 03.4S between
92W and 103W, and from 02N to 04N between 125W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Strong winds prevail over the Gulf of Tehuantepec per recent
ASCAT scatterometer data, along with 5 to 7 ft seas. High
pressure is building SE toward Baja California along with
elongated troughing over NW Mexico, causing fresh to locally
strong NW winds offshore Baja California Norte near Punta Eugenia.
Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient is leading to light to
gentle winds, except gentle to moderate in the northern Gulf of
California due to the pressure gradient. Moderate seas prevail
elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico, with slight seas over
the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
over NE Mexico and the equatorial trough will support strong gap
winds in the Gulf of Tehunatepec through early Wed, then
moderate to fresh Wed night and Sat night. Winds may increase
back to fresh to strong Sun night. High pressure will build
further over the waters N of Punta Eugenia by Wed, tightening
the pressure gradient and supporting fresh to strong NW winds and
building seas off Baja California. Rough to very rough seas will
then persist there through the end of the week and into the
weekend. Looking ahead, a cut-off low pressure area may develop
and linger near Baja California Norte by the end of the weekend
into early next week which would weaken the pressure gradient and
slightly improve marine conditions.

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Strong gap winds are in the Papagayo region per recent ASCAT
scatterometer data, with fresh gap winds ongoing in the Gulf of
Panama, extending southward to 02N. Seas in these areas are 5 to
8 ft. Elsewhere, winds are light to gentle with slight to
noted SW of the Galapagos Islands and near the coasts of Ecuador
and Colombia.

For the forecast, pulsing fresh to strong winds are expected in
the Papagayo area through through the week and into the weekend.
Winds will increase to 30 kt tonight into Wed morning, with seas
building to 8 to 9 ft downwind of the Papagayo region to near
90W. Fresh N gap winds and moderate seas will pulse to strong
tonight in the Gulf of Panama and just S of the Azuero
Peninsula. Looking ahead, a significant southerly swell event
with rough seas may approach the waters offshore Ecuador to the
Galapagos Islands early next week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure centered just N of the region is dominating much
of the waters N of 04N. This is leading to mainly moderate or
weaker NE to E winds N of the Equator per recent ASCAT data,
along with moderate seas.

For the forecast, high pressure will build southward over the
area through mid-week, tightening the pressure gradient and
increasing winds. Fresh to locally strong NE winds and rough
seas are likely over NW waters N of 05N and W of 115W starting
late Wed and continuing into the weekend. Looking ahead, a cut-
off low pressure area may develop and linger near Baja California
Norte by the end of the weekend into early next week which would
weaken the pressure gradient and slightly improve marine
conditions.

$$
Lewitsky