726
AXPZ20 KNHC 102127
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Sep 10 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Norbert is centered near 16.5N 120.5W at 10/2100
UTC, moving west at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50
kt. Peak seas are 15 ft within 90 nm NE quadrant of the center.
Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted within
60 nm of center. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is elsewhere from 15N to 18N between 117W and 119W. Norbert is
moving toward the west, and this motion is expected to continue
through Friday. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast by
Friday night. Gradual strengthening is forecast over the next few
days.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Fourteen-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 96W north of 03N through SE Mexico. The
wave is moving westward at about 15 kt. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong conveciton is seen from 09N to 11N between 96W
and 99W.

A tropical wave has its axis along 111W north of 03N. It is
moving westward at about 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is observed from 10N to 17N between 102W and
112W. Fresh to locally strong E to SE winds and moderate seas
are on the E side of the wave axis from 13N to 17N to about 107W
based on scatterometer data.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 07N96W to 10N110W,
then continues SW of T.S. Norbert from 11N120W to 07N130W to
11N140W. In addition to the convection associated with Norbert
and the tropical waves, scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted from 03N to 07N between 78W and 88W, and
from 00N to 10N W of 132W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Marine conditions are improving in the Revillagigedo Islands as
T.S. Norbert continues to move westward and away from the islands.
Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas up to 6 ft are still
noted in the vicinity of Clarion Island. Fresh to strong N gap
winds continue across the Tehuantepec region and downwind to near
14N. Moderate to locally rough seas are with these winds. Light
to gentle winds dominate the offshore waters of Baja California
under the influence of a weak ridge, anchored by a 1017 mb high
pressure centered near 30N127W. Light to gentle winds and moderate
seas are present elsewhere across the remaining Mexican offshore
waters.

For the forecast, Norbert will move to 16.5N 122.5W Fri morning,
16.5N 124.9W Fri afternoon, 16.6N 127.1W Sat morning, 17.0N
129.0W Sat afternoon, 17.6N 130.7W Sun morning, and strengthen to
a hurricane near 18.0N 132.4W Sun afternoon. Norbert will weaken
to a tropical storm near 18.4N 136.1W Mon afternoon. As Norbert
continues to move westward, a stronger ridge will build across
the offshore waters of Baja California, bringing moderate to
locally fresh NW to N winds by Sun into early next week. Winds
will also increase across the northern Gulf of California Fri and
Fri night, then again Mon and Mon night due to the pressure
gradient between the ridge and the meandering trough that is in
place in that area. Otherwise, fresh to strong N to NE gap winds
will continue to pulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through
early Fri.

Looking ahead, showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad
area of low pressure are located several hundred miles southwest
of the southwestern Mexico coast. Gradual development of this
system is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form
by early next week while it moves generally west-northwestward
over central and western portions of the East Pacific. This
system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation through 7
days, and a low chance through 48 hours.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Recent scatterometer data provide observations of fresh to strong
NE to E winds across the Papagayo region and downwind to near
90W. Moderate to rough seas are within these winds. Gentle to
moderate southerly winds are across the offshore waters between
Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands along with moderate seas in SW
swell. Moderate to fresh SE to S winds are evident just W of the
Galapagos Islands. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds with
slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere. Higher winds are noted
near thunderstorms along the monsoon trough.

For the forecast, a ridge north of the area will continue to
support pulsing fresh to strong easterly winds, and moderate to
rough seas across the Papagayo region, mainly at night, through
Mon night. Seas are forecast to build to 8 or 9 ft with the
strongest winds. Meanwhile, gentle to moderate southerly winds
and moderate seas are expected over the waters between Ecuador
and the Galapagos through early next week. Moderate or lighter
winds and moderate seas in long period SW swell are forecast
elsewhere.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please, see the Special Features section for more information
about Tropical Storm Norbert.

Aside from T.S. Norbert and the tropical waves previously
mentioned, a surface trough is analyzed from 22N131W to 13N132W.
Recent scatterometer data indicate the wind shift associated with
the trough, with moderate to fresh winds near the northern end
of it. A ridge dominates the waters N of 20N and W of 110W.
Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are noted under the
influence of the ridge, with the exception of light to gentle
winds N of 27N and W of 130W as well as N of 20N E of 118W to the
coast of Baja California. Moderate or weaker winds along with
seas of 5 to 7 ft are over the remainder of the eastern Pacific
forecast region.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Norbert will move to 16.5N 122.5W
Fri morning, 16.5N 124.9W Fri afternoon, 16.6N 127.1W Sat morning,
17.0N 129.0W Sat afternoon, 17.6N 130.7W Sun morning, and strengthen
to a hurricane near 18.0N 132.4W Sun afternoon. Norbert will weaken
to a tropical storm near 18.4N 136.1W Mon afternoon.

$$
GR