174
AXPZ20 KNHC 030858
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Apr 3 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0850 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends southwestward from Panama at 09N79W to
04N90W to 06N105W, to 03N115W. The ITCZ extends from 03N115W to
beyond 04S120W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 00N
to 03N east of 87W, and from 02N to 04N between 85W and 105W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A broad surface ridge extends southeastward from 1025 mb high
pressure centered near 30N135W to near the Revillagigedo
Islands. A recent scatterometer satellite pass confirmed this
pattern is supporting fresh to locally strong NW to N winds west
of Baja California. Concurrent altimeter satellite and drifting
buoy data also showed moderate to rough seas off Baja California,
with maximum wave heights probably as high 11 ft. Moderate to
locally fresh NW to N winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft in moderate NW
swell are present near the Revillagigedo Islands. In the Gulf of
California, the scatterometer pass confirmed fresh to strong
westerly gap winds into the northern and central Gulf. Seas are
probably 4 to 6 ft in these areas, with 2 to 4 ft seas elsewhere
in the Gulf. Mostly gentle NW to N, to NE winds and seas of 4 to
5 ft are found off central and southern Mexico.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW winds will persist off
Baja California through Sun, although strong winds may briefly
pulse off Cabo San Lucas during overnight hours. In the central
Gulf of California, moderate to fresh with locally strong winds
are anticipated tonight. A similar scenario is also forecast for
the central and southern Gulf of California Sat night and Sun
night. Large NW swell will maintain rough seas west of Baja
California until early Fri, then subside to mainly moderate, with
another set arriving by early next week. Looking ahead, a surge
of near- gale force northerly gap winds may develop in the Gulf
of Tehuantepec late Sun night, which could increase further to
minimal gale-force early next week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Localized fresh to strong easterly winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are
present at the immediate Gulf of Papagayo, while moderate
northerly winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft are evident elsewhere off
Central America. Farther south, light to gentle winds along with
4 to 7 ft seas in a mixed of SW and NW swells prevail off
Colombia and Ecuador. Refer to the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section
for convection in the offshore areas.

For the forecast, localized fresh to strong winds will pulse at times
in the immediate Gulf of Papagayo through Sat night, mainly
during nighttime and early morning hours. A mix of SW and NW
swells will keep moderate seas near the Galapagos Islands and off
Ecuador through Fri.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....

A large dome of high pressure with a ridge extends southeastward
from 1025 mb high pressure centered near 30N135W to near the
Revillagigedo Islands. This pattern is supporting fresh trade
winds and 6 to 8 ft seas in a mix of swell south of 20N and west
of 125W. Moderate NE winds persist elsewhere west of 110W, with 5
to 7 ft seas, except for 8 to 10 ft seas in NW swell north of
20N and east of 120W. Gentle NE to E breezes and 5 to 7 ft seas
in mixed NW and SW swell are noted east of 110W.

For the forecast, the ridge will be quasi-stationary while
weakening slightly through this weekend. This should allow winds
to dimish slightly across the trade wind belt. The NW swell will
also steadily decay which allow seas to subside slightly. A new
set of large NW swell will reach 30N140W by Sat afternoon, with
seas up to around 14 ft near 30N140W by early Sun. Seas of 8 ft
or greater will cover the waters west of a line from Punta
Eugenia to 05N127W by Mon evening. Little change is expected
elsewhere through Sun over the open Pacific waters.

$$
Christensen