867
AXPZ20 KNHC 122204
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Nov 12 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Excessive Rainfall Risk in Southern Central America: Persistent
SW flow in the eastern Pacific region will continue to bring
abundant tropical moisture across southern Central America. This
combined with a diffluent pattern aloft and the presence of a
Central America Gyre (CAG) will increase the likelihood of heavy
rainfall across southern Central America through at least the
early part of the upcoming weekend. Latest model guidance
indicates that the present moderate SW flow offshore Costa Rica
and Panama is expected to increase toward the end of the week
and into the upcoming weekend as a developing tropical
disturbance meanders over the western Caribbean Sea. The abundant
tropical moisture is forecast to provide a focus for potentially
heavy rainfall to occur in Costa Rica and in northern Panama.
This information is provided by the Weather Prediction Center`s
International desk team. Please refer to your national weather
agency for details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from a 1009 mb low that is
located offshore northern Costa Rica near 10N86W to low pressure
of 1011 mb near 12N104W, to another 1011 mb low near 09N116W, to
another low of 1011 mb near 08N125W to 06N132W and to a 1012 mb
low near 07N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is within 180 nm north of the trough between
103W-107W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm south
of the trough between 83W-88W, and within 60 nm of the between
114W-118W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The earlier fresh to strong Gulf of Tehuantepec gap winds have
diminished to mostly fresh speeds this afternoon. Fresh NW winds
are offshore Baja California Norte, which are associated with
high pressure building farther west in the wake of a dissipating
cold front that is presently passing across northern Baja
California. Mostly gentle to moderate NW to N winds are present
elsewhere. Seas are peaking to around 6 ft in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec, and 4 to 6 ft elsewhere primarily in NW swell,
except for 2 to 4 ft in the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, the fresh NW winds offshore Baja California
Norte are expected to continue through late tonight. This will
be followed by large NW swell, reaching Guadalupe Island by this
evening, then offshore of Cabo San Lazaro by Wed night, and the
Revillagigedo Islands by late Thu. A second slightly stronger
front will move into the waters of Baja California Norte Fri
through Sat. Reinforcing NW swell will follow the front off Baja
California Norte Thu night through Fri. Looking ahead, a cold
front moving across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico will bring
additional gap winds into Gulf of Tehuantepec late Wed through
Sat night, reaching near- gale force with rough seas Thu through
most of Fri. A slighter tighter gradient could allow for these
winds to reach gale force. Check the latest forecast.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on an
Excessive Rainfall Risk in Southern Central America.

Low pressure of 1009 mb is supporting gentle to moderate SW to W
winds and seas to 6 ft along the coasts of Costa Rica and
western Panama. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are
noted elsewhere. Increasing scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are over the offshore waters of Costa Rica and
northern Panama.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate SW winds will persist
across the region through early Thu, then become moderate to
fresh off Costa Rica and western Panama by late Thu with little
change expected through Sun night. Scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms offshore Costa Rica and northern Panama are
expected to continue through into the upcoming weekend.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A dissipating cold front is moving across northern Baja
California. Latest scatterometer satellite data passes
generally depict moderate to fresh N to NE winds west of
the northern Baja California waters to near 128W. Long-period
NW to N swell producing seas of 8 to 12 ft are over this part
of the area. The latest scatterometer satellite data passes
also show moderate to fresh NE trade winds from about 09N to 27N
and west of about 128W. Seas with these winds are in the range
of 6-8 ft. Gentle to moderate winds persist elsewhere generally
with seas of 4-6 ft due to mix long-period NW and SW swell.

For the forecast, NW long-period swell bringing wave heights of
8 to 13 ft will cover much of the are north of about 09N and
west of 113W going into the early part of the upcoming weekend.
Wave heights of 11-14 ft are expected to move into the NW part
of the area starting early Thu, shifting eastward to the north-
central waters by Fri while slowly subsiding.

Looking ahead, high pressure will build north of the area
in the wake of a slightly stronger cold front that is forecast
to move east-southeastward across the waters north of 20N. Fresh
to strong NE to E winds and additional large NW swell will build
across the region north of 10N and east of 110W through Sat.

$$
Aguirre