343
AXPZ20 KNHC 030919
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue Jun 3 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is along 90W/91W, extending from
Guatemala southward into the eastern Pacific waters north of
04N. The wave is moving westward at near 10 kt. Clusters of
moderate to strong convection are noted over northern Guatemala
and SE Mexico.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from a 1010 mb low pressure located
over northern Colombia near 11N74W to 12N90W to 10N105W to
08N124W. The ITCZ continues from 08N124W to 10N130W to beyond
08N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection can be
found from 03N to 06N E of 79W to the coast of Colombia, from 04N
to 12N between 83W and 102W, and from 05N to 10N between 110W
and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Strong high pressure of 1040 mb located well N of area extends a
ridge SE across the offshore waters of Baja California, reaching
the Revillagigedo Islands. The resultant pressure gradient
between the ridge and lower pressures inland Mexico is yielding
only light NW winds N of Punta Eugenia and gentle to moderate NW
winds S of Punta Eugenia. However, mainly fresh NW winds with
seas of 6 to 8 ft prevail in the vicinity of Cabo San Lucas. Seas
across the area waters are 5 to 7 ft in SW swell, except across
the far NW waters where new N swell is raising seas to 7 to 9 ft.
In the Gulf of California, light SW to W winds are noted, except
gentle to moderate S to SW winds over the northern part of the
Gulf. Slight seas prevail in the northern and central Gulf, with
moderate seas to 5 ft in S swell across the southern part of the
Gulf.

For the forecast, a ridge will remain in control of the weather
pattern across the offshore waters of Baja California this week
producing gentle to moderate NW winds. Pulsing winds to 20 kt
are expected near Cabo San Lucas nightly through Thu night.
N swell will continue to propagate southward W of the Baja
California peninsula, reaching the waters N of Cabo San Lazaro
today, with the highest seas of 7 to 8 ft remaining across the
outer offshore waters. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is
forecast to form offshore of the coast of southern Mexico late
this week. Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally
conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression could form over the weekend as it moves generally
westward to west-northwestward at 5 to 10 kt. Currently, there
is a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through 7 days.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A tropical wave is moving across northern Central America and the
adjacent Pacific waters along about 90W/91W. See the Tropical
Waves section for more details. Elsewhere, a weak pressure
gradient prevails across the area, resulting in gentle to
moderate southerly winds south of 06N, and light to gentle winds
N of 06N. Cross-equatorial SW swell is producing moderate seas
of 5 to 7 ft across the forecast waters.

For the forecast, cross-equatorial SW swell dominating regional
waters will gradually fade through early Wed before a new set of
SW swell builds into the forecast waters Wed through Fri. Abundant
tropical moisture will persist across the region increasing the
likelihood of showers and thunderstorms through at least Fri.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....

A strong 1040 mb high pressure system is centered across the NE
Pacific well north of the area near 42N140W, and extends a ridge
southward over the forecast region, covering most of the waters
N of the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough and W of 110W. The associated
pressure gradient to the north supports a swath of fresh N to NE
winds over the NW forecast waters, where seas are in the 8 to 12
ft range in new N to NE swell. Elsewhere between the monsoon
trough/ITCZ and this feature, moderate to fresh NE trade winds
prevail, with seas of 6 to 7 ft to the west of 110W. A 1010 mb
surface low is near 13N106W, where isolated thunderstorms are
noted. Moderate northerly winds and seas to near 8 ft prevail
across the western semicircle of the low center.

For the forecast, the strong high pressure will drift SW and weaken
modestly through the end of the week, remaining well N of the forecast
region. As a result, fresh N to NE winds are forecast to persist
over the NW part of the forecast region through early Fri, while
moderate to locally fresh trades prevail between the ITCZ and
20N. Northerly swell, generated by strong to gale force N winds
between the above mentioned strong high pressure and lower
pressures over central California, will continue to propagate
across the northern forecast waters, peaking there around 14 ft
this evening. Seas of 8 ft or greater are forecast to dominate
most of the waters N of 23N and W of 120W by tonight then slowly
subside through late Fri.

$$
GR