940
AXPZ20 KNHC 022127
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Aug 2 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Gil is centered near 19.0N 130.5W at 2100 UTC,
moving west-northwest at 17 kt. Maximum sustained wind speed
remains 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 993 mb. Seas greater than 12 ft are found within 300
NM NE quadrant...240 NM SE quadrant...180 NM SW quadrant...and
150 NM NW quadrant...with peak seas near 30 ft. Scattered to
numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 120 nm
across the E semicircle. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is noted elsewhere from 12N to 22N between 124W and 133W.
Moderate-sized southerly swell from Gil will continue to move
through the Baja California near and offshore waters today before
fading Sun morning. The latest forecast has Gil continuing to
move on a west-northwest track through the weekend. Gil has
begun a weakening trend today, and is expected to become post-
tropical Sun evening.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Gil
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is analyzed near 87W, from 06N northward,
moving west 10 to 15 kt. Nearby convection is occurring about the
monsoon trough and Central America, and is noted in the monsoon
trough/ITCZ section below.

A tropical wave axis is near 99W-100W, from 05N northward,
moving west 10 to 15 kt. Nearby convection is noted in the
monsoon trough/ITCZ section below.

A tropical wave axis is near 109W from 05N to 18N, moving west
10 to 15 kt. Nearby convection is noted in the monsoon
trough/ITCZ section below. Low pressure is expected to form well
southwest of southwestern Mexico in association with this
tropical wave within the next day or two. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this
system, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this
weekend or early next week as the system moves west-northwestward
at 10 to 15 mph. There is a medium chance of development within
the next 48 hours, and a high chance through the next 7 days.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N74.5W to 08N85W to 09.5N91W
to 09N102W to 12.5N115W, then resumes from 12N130W to 07N140W.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted north of 03.5N
and east of 82W, from 07.5N to 09.5N between 83W and 93W, from
06N to 14.5N between 93W and 103W, and from 07N to 18N between
93W and 117W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06.5N
to 11N between 130W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh to strong N gap winds, and seas of 6-9 ft, prevail across
the Gulf of Tehuantepec and downwind to 13.5N, behind a tropical
wave that has moved through the area. Scattered thunderstorms
are within 75 nm of the coast of Tehuantepec and Oaxaca.
Elsewhere, high pressure west of the area is yielding gentle to
moderate NW winds west of the Baja California peninsula, becoming
gentle N to NE winds southward into the Revillagigedo Islands.
Recent altimeter data shows that seas there are 6 to 8 ft in
southerly swell from Gil. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere
over the open waters off Mexico between Cabo Corrientes and
Puerto Angel, as well as north portions of the Gulf of
California. Southerly winds have increase to moderate across
south and central portions of of the Gulf. Clusters of moderate
thunderstorms are across the near and offshore waters of
Michoacan and Colima. Seas are in the 5-6 ft range. In the Gulf
of California, slight seas are noted, except 5 to 7 ft in the
mouth of the Gulf, as swell from Gil prevails.

For the forecast, moderate southerly swell from Tropical Storm
Gil will continue to move through the Baja waters through Sun
morning. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh NW winds are
expected offshore of Baja California through this weekend, then
will diminish slightly through the middle of the upcoming week,
as high pressure NW of the area weakens. Fresh to strong N gap
winds are expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Sun morning
before diminishing. In the Gulf of California, moderate to
locally fresh SE winds will develop early Sun, mainly north and
central portions, and continue into early next week. Looking
ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of
the coast of Central America and southern Mexico by the middle
part of next week. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
some development, and a tropical depression could form late next
week as the system moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15
mph.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate northeasterly gap winds are over the Papagayo region
and extend to the Gulf of Fonseca. Light to gentle winds prevail
elsewhere N of the monsoon trough and W of 88W. Gentle to
moderate winds are found S of the monsoon trough. However, a large
cluster of strong thunderstorms continues to shift slowly
westward, from the coast of Colombia to the Azuero Peninsula of
Panamas, and is producing frequent lightning and strong gusty
winds across that area. Seas across the region are generally in
the 5-7 ft range north of 01N and 6 to 8 ft in SW swell south of
01N.

For the forecast, gap winds across the Papagayo region will
pulse moderate to fresh through Mon, then will weaken late Tue
through Wed. Light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere N of
the monsoon trough through early Tue, then become fresh to strong
late Tue through Wed with the passage of a tropical wave. Gentle
to moderate winds can be expected S of the monsoon trough. New
SW swell will move through the regional waters this weekend, then
slowly subside by Mon. Yet another pulse of SW swell will raise
seas across the regional waters Tue through Wed. Looking ahead,
an area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of the
coast of Central America and southern Mexico by the middle part
of next week. Thereafter, environmental conditions appear
conducive for some development, and a tropical depression could
form late next week as the system moves generally west-
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
Tropical Storm Gil. Swell associated with Gil is producing seas
of 8 ft and higher from 07N to 27N between 114W and 135W.

A 1029 mb high is centered N of the area near 34N135W. The
pressure gradient between this area of high pressure, Tropical
Storm Gil, and low pressure within the monsoon trough is
supporting moderate to fresh NE winds over the waters N of 10N
and W of 125W, beyond the immediate circulation of Gil. Moderate
to locally fresh winds are found S of the monsoon trough W of
120W, and gentle to moderate E of 120W. Seas are in the 7-8 ft
range over the waters N of the monsoon trough to 24N and W of
135W, except as noted near Gil, and 5-7 ft N of 24N and W of 125W.
Elsewhere outside of Gil, seas are in the 6-8 ft range.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Gil is moving west-northwest at
17 kt, and will gradually weaken through Mon. Gil is expected to move
to near 20N 132.9W early tonight, reach near 21N 135.7W midday
Sun, become a 35 kt post-tropical low near 21.9N 138.4W early Sun
night, then exit the area near 22.3N 141.1W as a remnant low
midday Mon. Elsewhere, an area of low pressure is expected to
form well southwest of southwestern Mexico within the next day or
two, likely in the vicinity of 120W. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for some gradual development of this system, and
a tropical depression is likely to form late this weekend or
early next week as the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to
15 mph. There is a medium chance of development within the next
48 hours, and a high chance within the next 7 days. Another area
of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of the coast of
Central America and southern Mexico by the middle part of next
week. Thereafter, environmental conditions appear conducive for
some development, and a tropical depression could form late next
week as the system moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to
15 mph. There is a low chance of development within the next 48
hours, and a medium chance within the next 7 days.

$$
Stripling