167
AXPZ20 KNHC 310836
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Jan 31 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The next strong gap wind event
across the Tehuantepec region is forecast to begin early this
evening as a ridge builds southward across the eastern slopes of
the Sierra Madre Mountains in eastern Mexico, behind a cold
front moving across the Gulf of Mexico. Wind are forecast to
increase to 30 to 35 kt, with seas building to 12 ft Fri night
into Sat. Gale conditions and rough seas are expected to persist
through early Sun morning before diminishing below gale force.
Fresh to strong winds will then continue through at least Mon
night.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further
details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from low pressure 1008 mb near 10N75W
to 10.5N84W to 05N104W. The ITCZ continues from 05N104W to near
06N123W, then resumes near 06N127W to beyond 05.5N140W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 04.5N to 08N between 81W and
100W, and from 05.5N to 08N between 123W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please,
refer to the Special Features section for more details.

A broad ridge dominates the Baja California offshore waters,
centered on a 1026 mb high near 30N125W. This ridge extends
southeastward to offshore of Cabo Corrientes and supports moderate
N winds north of Punta Eugenia, and moderate to fresh N to NE
winds south of Punta Eugenia to the Revillagigedo Islands.
Fresh to locally strong NW to N winds extend from the southern
Gulf of California southward to the vicinity of Cabo Corrientes.
Seas are 5 to 8 ft across the southern Gulf of California to
offshore of Cabo Corrientes, 4 to 6 ft in NW swell N of Cabo San
Lazaro, and 3 ft or less seas in the northern and central Gulf
of California.

For the forecast, other than the upcoming Gulf of Tehuantepec
gale-force gap wind event discussed above, the current ridge
centered west of Baja California will generally remain in place,
and slowly weaken through the weekend, before shifting SW and
weakening further early next week. This pattern will produce
moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds and moderate seas across
the Baja offshore waters through Fri evening before winds
diminish modestly over the weekend. As this occurs, seas will
subside very slightly through Mon. In the southern Gulf of
California, expect fresh to locally strong winds to continue
overnight, then gradually become moderate to fresh NW to N winds
and moderate seas across the central and southern parts of the
Gulf Fri through Sat, then diminish more significantly Sun.
Winds will be moderate or weaker with mainly moderate seas
elsewhere through the next several days. Looking ahead, moderate
W-NW swell will move through the Baja offshore waters late Mon
through Tue night.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

High pressure extends from the western Atlantic southwestward
across the NW Caribbean to Central America tonight. This is
producing fresh to locally strong NE to E gap winds across the
Papagayo region, spreading downstream to about 89W. Seas are 4 to
7 ft there. Farther east, the same high pressure system supports
moderate northerly winds across the Gulf of Panama. Seas are 3 to
4 ft downstream of the Azuero Peninsula to about 06N. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.
Scattered moderate convection extend across the waters from the
entrance to the Gulf of Panama to offshore of Costa Rica.

For the forecast, high pressure centered north of the area will
support pulsing fresh to strong NE to E gap winds across the
Papagayo region through the middle of next week before
diminishing in areal coverage. Gentle to moderate N winds will
prevail in the Gulf of Panama. These winds across Panama are
expected to pulse to locally fresh speeds Sun night and Mon
night, as strong trades across the south-central Caribbean
funnel into the Gulf of Panama. Moderate or weaker winds and
slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. Seas generated in
the gap wind areas of Tehuantepec and Papagayo are forecast to
impact the outer offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador
this upcoming weekend.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Most of the basin is dominated by a subtropical ridge centered on
a 1026 mb high near 30N125W extending southward into the region
between 105W and 145W north of the ITCZ. Fresh to locally strong
trades are found across a large area from roughly 06N to 21N W
of 115W. Seas are 8 to 10 ft with these winds, with a few small
areas to 11 ft. Widely scattered moderate isolated strong
convection has developed tonight within 120 nm N of the ITCZ, to
the west of 123W. Meanwhile, a frontal boundary has stalled and
is dissipating near 32N140W, with moderate to fresh southerly
winds and seas  7 to 8 ft N of 24N E of front to about 134W.
Anticyclonic winds are moderate or weaker with mainly moderate
seas 6 ft or less across the remainder of the open waters,
including south of the ITCZ.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong winds and rough seas
across the tradewind zone will persist today through Fri night.
These conditions will begin to slowly improve Sat into early
next week as the high pressure center begins to slowly weaken,
resulting in a weakening pressure gradient. Another cold front,
forecast to remain W of the forecast area, will bring another
round of fresh to strong winds and rough seas just southeast of
30N140W beginning this afternoon. Seas of 8 to 13 ft are
expected across the NW corner of the forecast region by Sat
evening, as strong westerly swell generated by a frontal system
currently N of Hawaii moves into the regional waters. Moderate to
large W to NW swell will dominate the waters N of 20N and W of
130W Sat through the middle of the upcoming week.

$$
Stripling