327
AXPZ20 KNHC 040317
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu Jun 4 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Amanda is centered near 11.4N 129.3W at 04/0300 UTC,
moving west-northwest at 8 kt, and this general motion is expected
to continue for the next couple of days. A turn toward the west
and southwest at a slower forward speed is forecast this weekend.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Some strengthening is
forecast during the next day or two. A weakening trend is forecast
to begin this weekend. Peak seas are near 12 ft. Numerous strong
convection is observed within 90 nm W of the center.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Amanda NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis along 91W from 03N N to near the
El Salvador/Guatemala border, drifting W at less than 5 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is noted where the wave meets the
monsoon trough 07N to 10N between 85W and 95W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 11N85W to 09N95W to 13N105W
to 11N126W. It resumes SW of Tropical Storm Amanda near 09.5N131W
and continues to 1010 mb low pressure located near 05N140W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from
05N to 10N E of 85W to the coast of Colombia, from 06N to 11N
between 95W and 105W, and from 10N to 13N between 107W and
113W. Similar convective activity is seen from 03N to 06N W of
136W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge that is anchored by a 1030 mb high pressure center N of
the area near 33N141W stretches southeastward to the Revillagigedo
Islands. The pressure gradient between this ridge and a surface
trough along the Gulf of California is maintaining moderate to
fresh NW winds over the Baja California offshore waters, with
seas of 5 to 7 ft. Inside the Gulf of California, light winds
prevail, with seas of 1 to 3 ft, except seas of 3 to 5 ft in
long-period S to SW swell near the entrance to the Gulf. For the
remainder of the offshore waters, light to gentle winds dominate
along with 5 to 7 ft seas primarily in long-period S to SW swell,
including the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

For the forecast, rough seas, in NW swell, will propagate across
the outer offshore waters N of Punta Eugenia late Thu into Fri.
Additional pulses of NW swell will continue to reach the region
into early next week. An area of low pressure is forecast to
form offshore of southern and southwestern Mexico by this weekend.
Environmental conditions also appear conducive for gradual
development of this system into early next week, and a tropical
depression could form during this time as it moves slowly
northward or northwestward, near the coast of southern Mexico.
Currently, this system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone
formation in 7 days.

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds are over the Central American offshore
waters under a weak pressure pattern along with moderate seas of
5 to 7 ft in long-period S to SW swell. The exception is moderate
gap winds in the Papagayo region. Gentle S to SW winds along
with seas of 5 to 7 ft in long-period SW swell are over the
waters S of the monsoon trough between the Galapagos Islands and
Ecuador.

For the forecast, long period SW swell will propagate through
the southern Galapagos adjacent waters through Thu. Otherwise,
an area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of Central
America and southern Mexico late this week. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for development of this system thereafter, and a
tropical depression could form late this weekend or early next week
while it moves slowly northwestward or northward. Currently, this
system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation in 7
days.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section for information on
Tropical Storm Amanda located well SW of the souther tip of Baja
California.

Otherwise, high pressure dominates the waters N of the monsoon
trough, with the pressure gradient between the high pressure and
lower pressure within the monsoon trough generally allowing for
fresh to locally strong trade winds N of the monsoon trough.
Seas over these waters are in the 7 to 9 ft range in a mix of
trade wind waves and NW to N swell. Mainly gentle winds are S of
the monsoon trough. Seas over these waters are generally 5 to 7
ft, except for S of the Equator, where long-period southerly
swell has created rough seas W of the Galapagos Islands.

The aforementioned high pressure will weaken some toward the end of
the week as Tropical Storm Amanda tracks NW over the western
portion of the area, resulting in diminishing winds across the
trade wind zone. Little change is expected elsewhere.

Tropical Storm Amanda will move to 12.2N 130.1W Thu morning,
13.0N 131.4W Thu evening, 13.4N 132.6W Fri morning, 13.5N 133.4W
Fri evening, 13.1N 134.1W Sat morning, and 12.8N 134.4W Sat
evening. Amanda will weaken to a remnant low near 12.2N 135.0W
late Sun.

$$
GR