367
AXPZ20 KNHC 190242
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue Aug 19 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0240 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 85W, north of 03N, moving
west at 10 kt. Nearby convection is described below in the
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 102W, north of 05N, moving
west at 10 kt. Nearby convection is described below in the
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 117W, from 04N to 17N,
moving west at 10-15 kt. Nearby convection is described below in
the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 11N92W to 12N120W to
12N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
noted from 10N to 12N between 85W and 88W, from 10N to 12N
between 100W and 110W, from 17N to 20N between 116W and 119W, and
from 08N to 11N between 125W and 127W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Weak ridging extends from high pressure centered over the north-
central Pacific to near the southern tip of the Baja California
Peninsula, with a surface trough over the Gulf of California.
This pattern is supporting gentle to locally moderate NW breezes
and moderate seas off Baja California. Moderate gap winds
prevail across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Light to gentle breezes
and slight seas are noted elsewhere off southern Mexico. Gentle
winds and slight seas are over the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge west of
the Baja California peninsula and a trough over the Gulf of
California will support gentle to moderate NW winds with moderate
seas west of the Baja peninsula through the end of the week.
Farther south, fresh gap winds will pulse in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec overnight. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas
in SW swell will persist across the remainder of the Mexican
offshore waters.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds dominate the offshore waters north of 05N
while gentle to moderate winds are noted south of 05N. Moderate
seas prevail across the discussion waters.

For the forecast, light to gentle winds will prevail across the
waters north of 05N through the week while gentle to moderate
winds are expected south of 05N. Cross- equatorial southerly
swell will propagate across the regional waters, keeping seas in
the moderate range, except in the lee of the Galapagos Islands
where slight seas are expected.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Ridging prevails north of 20N. The pressure gradient between this
area of high pressure along with lower pressure within the
monsoon trough is supporting gentle to moderate trade winds
north of the monsoon trough to 20N and west of 120W. Seas over
these waters are in the 6-7 ft range. Gentle winds, and seas of
4-7 ft, prevail elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Gentle to
moderate winds, and seas of 5-8 ft, prevail south of the monsoon
trough.

For the forecast, the ridge will remain in place through the
end of the week. A surge of southerly swell south of the monsoon
trough is expected between 115W and 135W by midweek. Little
change is expected elsewhere.

$$
Christensen