379
AXPZ20 KNHC 071605
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Sep 07 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Marie is centered near 24.7N 124.4W, or about
535 nm west-southwest of Punta Eugenia, Mexico at 07/1500 UTC,
moving west-northwest at 06 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure has risen slightly to 988 mb. Maximum sustained wind
speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Peak seas have lowered to
near 23 ft. Latest satellite imagery shows little change in
Marie`s structure over the last several hours. Numerous moderate
to isolated strong convection is within 60 nm of the center in
SW quadrant. Numerous moderate convection is elsewhere within 120
nm of the center in the SW quadrant, within 60 nm of the center
in the W quadrant and 30 nm in the NW quadrant. Marie is forecast
to turn to the northwest over the next couple of days. Steady
weakening is expected for the next couple of days, and Marie is
forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low on Wed. Swells
generated by Marie will continue to affect portions of the coast
of the Baja California Peninsula and southern California for the
next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Marie NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has entered the area, with its axis along 85W
north of 04N. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Numerous
moderate to isolated strong convection is from 04N to 09.5N
between 82W and 88W.

A tropical wave has its axis along 110W from 04N to 19N. It is
moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. An overnight Ascat pass depicted
a wind shift from northeast to southeast across the wave axis.
These winds were of light to gentle speeds. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms are seen from 04N to 10N between
106W and 115W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of northwest
Colombia westward across northern Costa Rica to 10.5N85W to
11N100W to 11N115W to 11N125W and to beyond 09N140W. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is from 04N to 09N between
124W-130W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
from 05N to 10N between 113W-116W. Scattered moderate convection
is from 04N to 08N between 130W-140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for information on
Tropical Storm Marie located about 535 nm west-southwest of
Punta Eugenia, Mexico.

Fresh southeast to south winds on the outer eastern fringes of
Marie are over the outer offshore waters that correspond from
Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Lazaro. Seas with these winds are
7 to 10 ft in southwest to west swell. Moderate or weaker winds
and rough seas in southwest to west swell are over the rest of
the Baja California offshore waters. Over the remainder of the
Mexican offshore waters, moderate or lighter winds and slight to
moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Marie will move to near 25.1N
125.4W this evening with maximum sustained winds 40 kt gusts 50
kt, and maintain intensity as it moves to near 25.9N 126.6W Tue
morning, to near 27.4N 127.6W Tue evening, to near 29.3N 128.7W
Wed morning with maximum sustained wins 35 kt gusts 45 kt, then
weaken to a remnant low near 31.6N 130.0W by late Wed. Marie will
dissipate early Fri. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds are
expected to briefly develop over the nearshore waters of Baja
California and in the northern Gulf of California tonight into
Tue as Marie moves farther away from the forecast waters. The
next gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec is expected to
begin late Tue night into early Wed.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh northeast to east winds prevail in the Gulf of Papagayo
region as noted in an overnight Ascat pass. Seas are 4 to 6 ft
with these winds. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight
to moderate seas prevail.

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are over some
portions of the offshore waters, primarily south of northern
Nicaragua.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support
moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas across the
Gulf of Papagayo region through the next several days. High
pressure building north of the area by Wed will lead to
strong gap winds and rough seas there, with winds possibly
reaching near gale speeds Wed night. Meanwhile, moderate to
fresh southerly winds are expected over the waters between
Ecuador and the Galapagos Tue through Wed night, then
diminishing some afterward. Moderate or lighter winds are
expected elsewhere.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section for information
on Tropical Storm Marie located about 535 nm west-southwest of
Punta Eugenia, Mexico.

Outside from marine impacts attributed to Marie over the
northeast portion of this part of the region, fresh northeast
to east along with seas of 7 to 10 ft in east swell are over
the far western waters north of 20N and west of about 135W.
These conditions are forecast to merge with those associated
to Tropical Storm Marie in about 24 hours. Elsewhere, moderate
or weaker winds along with seas of 5 to 7 ft are over the
remainder of the tropical eastern Pacific, with the exception of
higher seas of 6 to 9 ft in north to northeast swell generated
by Tropical Storm Marie over the waters north of 13N between
118W and 135W.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Marie will move to near
25.1N 125.4W this evening with maximum sustained winds 40 kt
gusts 50 kt, maintain intensity as it moves to near 25.9N 126.6W
Tue morning, to near 27.4N 127.6W Tue evening, and to near 29.3N
128.7W Wed morning with maximum sustained wins 35 kt gusts 45
kt. Marie is then forecast to weaken to a remnant low near 31.6N
130.0W by late Wed and dissipate early on Fri

Cross-equatorial Southern Hemispheric swell produce seas to 8 ft
may reach the far southern boundary of the south-central waters
Tue through Thu. To the east, an area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure is
located several hundred miles south-southwest of southwestern
Mexico. Gradual development of this system is possible, and a
tropical depression could form later this week while the system
generally west-northwestward.

$$
Aguirre