053
AXPZ20 KNHC 231536
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun Feb 23 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1450 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the border of Colombia and Panama
near 08N77W to low pressure, 1010 mb, near the Azuero Peninsula
at 08N81W to 03.5N94W to 06.5N108.5W to 02N130W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted within 420 nm west and northwest of
the coasts of Ecuador and Colombia. Similar convection is noted
north of the monsoon trough to 23N between 104W and 130W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A strong high pressure system over NE Mexico forces fresh to
near gale-force northerly winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas
in these waters are 8 to 14 ft. Meanwhile, the pressure gradient
between the subtropical ridge centered west of Baja California
and lower pressures over Mexico result in moderate to locally
fresh NW winds across the central and southern Gulf of
California southeastward to near Cabo Corrientes. Seas in these
waters are 3 to 6 ft. Gentle to moderate northerly winds and
seas of 5 to 8 ft are found in the offshore waters of Baja
California. Light to gentle W to NW winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft
are found offshore Michoacan and Guerrero, with gentle to
moderate winds and 4 to 7 ft seas elsewhere offshore southern
Mexico.

For the forecast, a robust ridge over NE Mexico will force
strong to near-gale force northerly winds across the Tehuantepec
region through Tue morning. Rough seas are forecast with the
strongest winds. Looking ahead, a strong northerly gap wind event
with gale-force winds is possible in the Gulf of Tehuantepec
starting Thu night. Meanwhile, a tight pressure gradient will
support moderate to fresh NW winds in the central and southern
Gulf of California and offshore of southwestern Mexico through
Mon, locally strong near Cabo Corrientes. Seas of 5 to locally 8
ft will accompany these winds. Moderate to fresh NW winds and NW
swell will affect the offshore waters of Baja California Norte
Mon night through Tue night, with seas peaking near 12 ft. The
decaying swell will spread into the Baja California Sur waters
late in the week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to locally near gale-force easterly trade winds continue
across the Gulf of Papagayo, spreading downstream to near 91W,
due to a strong ridge north of the Caribbean. Seas in these
waters are 5 to 8 ft. Farther east, fresh northerly winds are
affecting the Gulf of Panama waters, extending southward to near
02N. Seas in the area described are 5 to 9 ft. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.
Active convection is present offshore Panama, Colombia, and
Ecuador.

For the forecast, pulsing strong to near gale-force NE to E
winds will prevail in the Gulf of Papagayo through early Mon due
to a strong ridge north of the Caribbean waters. Locally rough
seas are expected with the strongest winds. Elsewhere, winds will
pulse to fresh to occasionally strong speeds in the Gulf of
Panama each night and morning during the next couple of days.
Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas
will prevail across the remainder of the offshore waters of
Central and South America through the forecast period.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A deep upper level trough over the western tropical waters of the
basin continue to produce a large area of cloudiness and
scattered showers. Most of the activity is found north of the
monsoon trough to 23N between 104W and 130W. Otherwise, the
waters north of the monsoon trough are dominated by a 1027 mb
high pressure system centered just north of the discussion waters
near 32N129W. Moderate to fresh winds and 6 to 9 ft seas are
from 03N to 20N between 110W and 140W where the pressure gradient
is the tightest. Winds are moderate or weaker along with 6 to 8
ft seas in old northerly swell across the remainder of the open
waters, including south of the monsoon trough, except 4 to 6 ft
seas east of 95W.

For the forecast, fresh to strong easterly winds will prevail in
the western trade waters through the early part of the week,
with seas of 7 to 10 ft. The next NW swell event will reach the
NW waters tonight and gradually spread southeastward through
mid-week. A cold front will approach the NW waters Tue, with
fresh to strong southerly winds ahead of it southeast of 30N140W
Tue afternoon, with the front slipping southeast of 30N140W Tue
night. The front will weaken as it reaches from 30N129W to
24N140W Wed evening, dissipating shortly thereafter. Looking
ahead, a large and significant swell will enter the basin behind
the front, supporting rough to very rough seas spreading
southeastward into late in the week.

$$
Lewitsky