714
AXPZ20 KNHC 140919
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Sep 14 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0855 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is along 91W, from 02N northward
through Guatemala and into the Yucatan Peninsula. The wave is
moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted north of 05N and between 85W and 95W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Costa Rica near
09N83W to 17N110W to 14N125W and to 13N140W. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is observed from 06N to 21N and
between 95W and 130W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Strong showers and isolated thunderstorms are evident on
satellite imagery near the Revillagigedo Islands and SW Mexico,
associated with the remnants of Mario located near 18N109W. A
recent scatterometer satellite pass captured fresh to strong
winds associated with the stronger storms. Scattered showers are
also seen off Oaxaca and Guerrero. The rest of the basin is
dominated by a subtropical ridge positioned well west of the
area. Satellite-derived wind data indicate that moderate to
locally fresh NW winds are occurring in the offshore waters of
Baja California. Seas in these waters are 5-7 ft. Light to gentle
winds and slight seas are evident in the Gulf of California.
Farther south, moderate to locally fresh northerly winds and
moderate seas are noted in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Elsewhere in
the Mexican offshore waters, moderate or weaker winds and slight
to moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh winds are expected
today into early this week off SW Mexico as the remnants of
Mario weaken and a broad low pressure persists. Moderate to
fresh NW winds offshore of Baja California will occur through
tonight before diminishing slightly Mon and Tue. Pulsing fresh
winds will continue in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, increasing to
strong speeds by midweek. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure
located south of the Baja California Peninsula, which includes
the remnants of Mario, is producing a broad area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected
to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical
depression could form during the early to middle part of next
week as it tracks slowly westward. Additionally, an area of low
pressure could develop well offshore of the coast of southern or
southwestern Mexico early next week. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for gradual development as the low
tracks west-northwestward around 10 to 15 mph.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The previously mentioned line of showers and thunderstorms in the
offshore waters of Central America has weakened in extent, but
continues to produce convection. A recent scatterometer satellite
pass indicated that strong winds were occurring with these storms.
Farther south, moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and seas of
6-9 ft persist across the waters south of 03N. The strongest winds
were noted just off the Gulf of Guayaquil. Elsewhere, light to
gentle winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, a long-period Southern Hemisphere swell will
continue to push northward between the Galapagos Islands and
Ecuador today and offshore of Colombia through Costa Rica today
into early this workweek. Seas will slowly subside region-wide
into Tue, though rough seas may prevail between the Galapagos
Islands and Ecuador through midweek. Otherwise, moderate to
occasionally fresh S to SW winds will prevail south of the
monsoon trough. Looking ahead, occasional moderate NE gap winds
will be possible in the Gulf of Papagayo by the middle of next
week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A cold front is approaching the far northwest waters, while a
broad subtropical ridge dominates the basin. Latest satellite-
derived wind data show moderate to locally fresh easterly trade
winds north of the monsoon trough to 22N and west of 120W. Seas
in these waters are 6-8 ft. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh southerly
winds and moderate to locally rough seas persist south of the
monsoon trough. Elsewhere, a long-period Southern Hemisphere swell
is sustaining rough seas south of 07N and east of 120W. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, a long-period Southern Hemisphere swell will
propagate northward, supporting rough seas south of 15N today into
Monday. Rough seas will diminish south of 05N early this workweek,
with rough seas persisting farther north through the middle of next
week. Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong winds are expected within
120 NM on both sides of the monsoon trough and ITCZ generally
between 105W and 130W today through early this week. Otherwise,
moderate to locally fresh winds are expected elsewhere in the trade
wind waters.

$$
Delgado