011
AXPZ20 KNHC 032112
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Apr 3 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends westward from a 1008 mb low pressure
located over northern Colombia near 10N74W to 06N93W to 06N110W.
The ITCZ continues from 06N110W to 00N130W to 05S140W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection can be found from 02N to
05N between 78W and 81W, from 00N to 02N between 80W and 84W,
from 00N to 05N between 92W and 96W, and from 02N to 05N between
100W and 106W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure of 1025 mb is located near 28N136W. Its associated
ridge extends southeastward to near the Revillagigedo Islands.
This pattern is supporting moderate to locally fresh NW to N
winds west of Baja California. Seas of 8 to 10 ft in NW swell
dominate the waters N of Cabo San Lazaro. Moderate NW to N winds
and seas of 5 to 7 ft in mixed NW and SW swell are present from
Cabo San Lucas to near the Revillagigedo Islands. In the Gulf of
California, gentle to moderate winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are
noted. Light and variable winds and moderate seas primarily in SW
swell prevail across the remainder of the Mexican offshore
waters, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

For the forecast, a ridge will remain in place across the offshore
forecast waters of Baja California supporting moderate to fresh
NW winds through Sun. In the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate
winds are expected through Sat, then wind will increase to fresh
to locally strong speeds across the central and southern parts
of the Gulf Sat night through Sun night as the pressure gradient
tightens between the ridge to the W and a low pressure over Mexico.
Rough seas currently affecting the waters N of Cabo San Lazaro
will subside to below 8 ft by Fri afternoon, with another set of
long period NW swell arriving by early next week. Looking ahead,
a late season gap wind event is expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec
late Sun night. Gale conditions are possible early next week.

Climatologically, the first gale-force event of the season occurs
in mid-October, with the final gale-force event occurring in late
March or early April. Occasionally, gale-force events may occur
as early as September, and as late as May.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Recent scatterometer data provide observations of moderate to
locally fresh E winds across the Papagayo region and downwind to
near 90W while light to gentle winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft are
evident elsewhere off Central America and Colombia. Farther south,
gentle to moderate E to SE winds with 4 to 6 ft seas in a mixed
of SW and NW swells prevail between Ecuador and the Galapagos
Islands.

For the forecast, pulsing winds to fresh to strong speeds are expected
in the Papagayo region through Sat night, mainly during nighttime
and early morning hours. Gentle to moderate E to SE and moderate
seas are forecast across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El
Salvador through Sun as the Atlantic ridge extends southwestward
across northern Central America. A mix of SW and NW swells will
keep moderate seas between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands
through Fri. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and moderate seas
will prevail.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....

High pressure of 1025 mb is located over the NW waters near 28N136W.
Its associated ridge covers most of the waters N of 10N and W of
110W. This pattern is supporting fresh to locally strong trade
winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft seas in a mixed of NE and NW swell
from 10N to 20N W of 125W based on scatterometer and altimeter
data. Moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate seas prevail
elsewhere under the influence of the ridge.

For the forecast, the high pressure will move NE and N of the
forecast area by Sat as a cold front approaches to 30N140W. The
cold front will move across the NW through MOn while gradually
weakening. This should allow winds to diminish slightly across
the trade wind belt. High pressure will follow the front with the
ridge axis along 30N by Mon night. A new set of large NW swell
will reach 30N140W by Sat afternoon, with seas building up to
around 14 ft near 30N140W by early Sun. This swell event will
continue to propagate across the forecast waters through Mon.
Seas of 8 ft or greater will cover the waters west of a line
from Punta Eugenia to 05N140W by Mon evening.

$$
GR