981
AXPZ20 KNHC 161551
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun Nov 16 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 10N95W to 08N111W. The
ITCZ stretches from 08N111 to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate
convection is observed from 06N to 10N E OF 86W to the coast of
Colombia, including also the Gulf of Panama. Similar convective
activity can be found from 08N to 11N between 93W and 100W, from
06N to 14N between 100W and 105W, and from 06N to 10N between
131W and 138W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weakening stationary front extends from the southwest of the
United States across the northern Gulf of California to near
18N130W. Fresh to strong SW winds are noted SE of the front to
30N in the Gulf of California. Moderate to locally fresh winds
and rough seas prevail elsewhere on either side of the front.
Moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are
evident across the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters.

For the forecast, the frontal boundary will slowly drift eastward
across Baja California and the Gulf of California today, bringing
mainly moderate winds and moderate to rough seas in NW swell across
the offshore forecast waters off Baja California. Winds in the
Gulf of California will diminish to 20 kt or less late today.
Looking ahead, another frontal boundary will bring fresh NW winds
and rough seas to the Baja California offshore waters late Mon
into midweek. Winds may pulse to strong in the northern Gulf of
California late Mon into Tue.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A weak pressure gradient continues across the offshore waters of
Central America and Colombia, sustaining moderate or weaker
winds and slight to moderate seas. Strong showers and isolated
thunderstorms are occurring in the nearshore and offshore waters
from Costa Rica to Colombia, including the Gulf of Panama.

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the basin will
support moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas
through early this week. Winds will freshen up by midweek in the
Gulf of Papagayo, while moderate to locally fresh southerly winds
and moderate seas are expected south of 05N.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

As previously mentioned, a weakening stationary front extends
from the southwest of the United States across the northern Gulf
of California to near 18N130W. Latest scatterometer satellite
data indicate that moderate to fresh winds are occurring on
either side of the front. Long-period, decaying NW swell sustain
seas of 8 9 ft over much of the basin north of 10N and west of
110W. Meanwhile over the eastern waters, an elongated area of low
pressure persists along the monsoon trough between 95W and 105W.
Moderate to fresh S to SW winds are flowing into this area,
sustaining seas of 6 to 8 ft. In the remainder of the basin,
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are present.

For the forecast, the above mentioned front will continue to
move eastward and gradually dissipate over the next day or so.
The large NW swell following the front will gradually subside as
it moves into the tropical Pacific and mixes with shorter-period
wind waves generated by moderate to fresh trade winds. Another
front is forecast to move into the waters west of Baja California
Norte on Mon, followed by large NW swell north of 25N and east
of 135W. Looking ahead, a building ridge over northern waters
will support fresh to strong easterly winds and rough seas in the
trade waters west of 120W midweek into late next week.

$$
GR