908
AXPZ20 KNHC 182140
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Jul 18 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis near 123W from 06N to 17N, moving
westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is
seen from 06N to 16N between 111W and 130W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from northwest Colombia to 08N83W to
08N110W to 11N140W. The ITCZ begins and continues beyond
11N140W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical
wave, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from
03N to 08N between 78W and 90W, and from 06N to 14N between 130W
and 140W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 05N to
12N between 98W and 110W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh to strong N to NE winds are ongoing in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec region along with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Elsewhere,
locally moderate or weaker winds continue along with seas of 4 to
6 ft in long-period southwest swell, except NW swell in the outer
Baja California offshore waters. In the Gulf of California,
moderate SE winds are over the northern Gulf N of 30N while
light to gentle winds prevail along the remainder Gulf along with
slight seas. Locally moderate NW winds are along the coastal
waters from Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Lucas.

For the forecast, moderate southeast winds will pulse over the
northern Gulf of California, reaching moderate to fresh speeds
Sun morning as a low pressure develops just north of the area.
Moderate to locally fresh southeast winds will then prevail
through Tue night as the low remains stationary. Pulsing fresh to
strong north gap winds will continue in the Gulf of Tehuantepec
through Wed night as a surface trough is expected to move from
the Yucatan Peninsula to Veracruz for the next several days.
Afterward, high pressure over the Gulf of America will shift
eastward, and winds in Tehuantepec will diminish to moderate to
fresh speeds. Rough seas are forecast to develop in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec region tonight through Sat night. Elsewhere, moderate
or weaker winds and moderate seas will prevail.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong northeast to east winds are in the Gulf of
Papagayo region. Seas with these winds are 7 to 8 ft. Moderate
to fresh southerly winds are over the waters between Ecuador and
The Galapagos Islands along with seas of 6 to 7 ft in south to
southwest swell. Light and variable winds are elsewhere across
the Central America offshore waters. Seas over these waters are 5
to 7 ft in south to southwest swell.

For the forecast, pulsing fresh to strong northeast to east
winds will continue in the Gulf of Papagayo through Wed night
with periods of rough seas. Moderate winds associated with this
gap wind event will continue to affect the outer offshore waters
of El Salvador and Guatemala through mid-week. Otherwise, gentle
to moderate southerly winds will continue between Ecuador and
The Galapagos Islands through Wed night along with moderate
seas.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Strong high pressure of 1033 mb is analyzed well northwest of
the discussion area at 42N147W. A ridge extends from the high
center SSE to 20N and 115W. A tropical waves is south of the
ridge near 123W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the
wave is allowing for moderate to fresh northeast to east winds
to exist from north of the monsoon trough to 19N between 115W
and 130W. Seas over these waters are 7 to 8 ft. Gentle to
moderate northeast to east trades are elsewhere north of the
monsoon trough and ITCZ. South of the monsoon, winds are moderate
to fresh and seas to 7 ft in SE swell.

For the forecast, the moderate to fresh northeast to east trades
will change little north of the monsoon trough and the ITCZ
through early Sat, then shift to the western part of the area
as the gradient between a tropical wave and the high pressure
tightens. Guidance suggests that seas may reach around 9 ft
with the tighter gradient over the western part of the area
early Sun through Wed and with increasing winds to strong speeds.

$$
Ramos