091
AXPZ20 KNHC 050232
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat Oct 5 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 14N95W to a 1008 mb low pres near
14N135W to beyond 11N140W. Scattered moderate convection is
occurring from 06N to 16N between 95W and 108W and from 10N to
16N between 130W-135W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails across the area. Recent scatterometer
satellite data depict light to gentle NW winds across much of the
Mexico offshore waters, with moderate to fresh winds occurring
to the south and west of Cabo San Lucas. Seas of 4-6 ft prevail,
except for off the coast of Baja California Norte where seas up
to 7 ft are noted, and in the Gulf of California, where 1-2 ft
seas are occurring.

For the forecast, strengthening high pressure north of 25N and
west of 130W and persistent troughing over Baja California will
continue to support moderate to fresh NW winds and slight seas
offshore of Baja California Sat into early next week. Elsewhere,
light to gentle winds will prevail. Moderate to strong N winds
and rough seas look to develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec by the
middle of next week. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure
could form off the coast of southwestern Mexico during the
weekend or early part of next week. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for additional development of this system, and a
tropical depression could form during the middle part of next
week while the system drifts slowly northwestward.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle SW to W winds are occurring across the area.
Slight seas are noted region-wide. Moderate convection is
occurring offshore of eastern Panama and northwest Colombia, and
gusty winds and rough seas are likely near convection.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh S winds will pulse
offshore of southern and central Colombia and Ecuador Sat through
the middle of next week. Farther north, light to gentle W to SW
winds will prevail.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1008 mb low pres is centered along the monsoon trough near
14N135W, and fresh winds and seas of 6-7 ft are occurring
surrounding the low. Moderate to fresh SW winds and seas of 6-7
ft are noted south of the monsoon trough, generally north of 07N
between 99W and 115W. Elsewhere, a mixed northerly swell is
promoting seas of 6-8 ft north of 25N.

For the forecast, moderate SW winds and slight seas will
continue south of the monsoon trough through the forecast period.
Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds will occur along the northern
and eastern periphery of the low in the western portion of the
east Pacific. Atmospheric conditions are becoming less conducive
and further development is not expected as the low moves slowly
northward and northeastward over the weekend. Looking ahead,
moderate to fresh NE winds and rough seas look to develop early
next week north of 20N.

$$
ERA