841
AXPZ20 KNHC 262209
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Nov 26 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 06N93W to 08N105W. The
ITCZ extends from 08N105W to 10N105W to 11N140W. No significant
convection is noted at this time.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Strong gap winds are likely ongoing across the Gulf of
Tehuantepec due to building high pressure north of the area. A
ridge farther north is support gentle to moderate breezes
elsewhere, with moderate seas.

For the forecast, strong to near-gale force gap winds will pulse
across the Gulf of Tehuantepec overnight, accompanied by rough
to very rough seas. This is associated with high pressure
building north of the area behind a cold front. These winds will
diminish Wed as the high pressure weakens and shifts eastward,
but rough seas will linger through Wed night. Looking ahead,
similar conditions may occur in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Fri and
Sat, with winds briefly reaching minimal gale force Fri night.
Farther north, fresh NW winds will follow a weak cold front
moving across the Gulf of California Thu and Fri. Elsewhere, weak
ridging will support gentle breezes and slight seas through Sun.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds, and seas of 3-5 ft, dominate N of the
monsoon trough. S of the monsoon trough, gentle to moderate SW to
W winds and seas of 3-5 ft prevail.

For the forecast, light to gentle winds are expected north of
the monsoon trough, except for occasional pulses of gentle to
moderate gap winds in the Papagayo region. Gentle to moderate SW
to W winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough. NE swell
from gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will support combined
seas to 9 ft off Guatemala through late Wed. Elsewhere, cross
equatorial SW swell up to 8 ft will impact the offshore waters
from Ecuador to western Panama through Thu, then gradually
subside thereafter.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Weak ridging extends across the waters north of 15N, anchored by
1022 mb high pressure near 29N122W, and south of a stalled
frontal boundary extending east-to-west just north of the region
to a 1008 mb low pressure centered near 31N144W. Moderate to
locally fresh SW winds are noted over the waters north of 25N and
west of 135W, between the high pressure and the low pressure to
the northwest. Seas are 7 to 8 ft in this area. The relatively
weak ridge is supporting gentle to moderate breezes across the
region. Combined seas are 6 to 9 ft primarily in southerly swell,
and 4 to 6 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, the occluded low pressure near 31N144W will
drift to the northeast, dragging a cold front across the waters
north of 25N and west of 120W through Fri, before lifting
northward. To the south, moderate to locally fresh trade winds
will persist west of 110W through late week.

$$
Christensen