


Tropical Weather Discussion
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Issued by NWS
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305 AXPZ20 KNHC 250252 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri Jul 25 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is near 102W from 03N to 17N, moving westward around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 14N between 100W to 105W. A tropical wave axis is near 126W from 03N to 17N, moving westward around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 123W to 127W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 12N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 11N between 109W and 121W, and scattered moderate to strong convection is from 04N to 20N and W of 127W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving across the area. A surface trough extends from the northern Gulf of California through Baja California Sur, while broad ridging covers the waters offshore of the peninsula. Fresh to strong N to NW winds and moderate seas prevail offshore of Baja as a result of this pressure gradient. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds and moderate seas prevail in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Moderate or weaker winds prevail over the rest of the waters. Altimeter satellite data show moderate seas in SW swell offshore of southern Mexico, and slight seas in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, fresh to strong NW winds will continue offshore of Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro through this weekend as the pressure gradient builds between troughing over the Gulf of California and high pressure to the west remains in place. Rough seas in NW swell may accompany these winds. Winds and seas will diminish early next week. Fresh N winds will pulse each night and morning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Sun morning. Strong to near-gale force N winds and rough seas are expected in this region Sun night into next week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh NE winds occurring in the Gulf of Papagayo as low pressure prevails over northwestern Colombia. Moderate E winds extend beyond the Papagayo region through the waters offshore of El Salvador and Guatemala. Elsewhere, scattered showers and thunderstorms offshore of Panama, with gusty and erratic winds and rapidly building seas likely near convection. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds prevail south of the monsoon trough. Moderate seas in SW swell are noted through the regional waters. For the forecast, moderate to fresh E to NE winds will continue to pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo into next week as low pressure prevails in the south-central Caribbean. Moderate E winds will prevail through the waters offshore of El Salvador and Guatemala tonight. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh S to SW winds will continue south of the monsoon trough through this weekend. Moderate seas in S to SW swell are expected across the Central and South American waters into next week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. A 1023 mb high is centered north of the area near 34N127W, and surface ridging extends through much of the waters north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. Light to gentle winds are noted north of 25N and west of 125W, with moderate seas. Farther south, moderate to fresh NE winds and rough seas from 10N to 20N west of 115W. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh SE winds are occurring south of the monsoon trough. Rough seas in SE swell are noted south of 05N and west of 120W, with moderate seas elsewhere. For the forecast, moderate to fresh N to NE winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ to 25N tonight, with moderate winds expanding farther north this weekend as high pressure strengthens north of the area. Rough seas generated by fresh winds will occur from 10N to 15N west of 125W through this weekend, and additional rough seas may develop south of the ITCZ. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad trough of low pressure located well southeast of the Hawaiian Islands continue. Some gradual development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression could form late this weekend or early next week as it moves generally westward at 10 to 15 kt. There is a low chance of formation within the next 48 hours, and a medium chance within the next 7 days. $$ ERA