080
AXPZ20 KNHC 221541
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Jul 22 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis near 113W from 02N northward to 16N
just south-southwest of the Revillagigedo Islands, moving slowly
westward around 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 08N to 13.5N between 106W and 119W.

A tropical wave has its axis near 139W from 05N to 19N, moving
westward at around 15 kt. No significant convection is associated
with this wave.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N83W to 08N100W to 09N115W. The
ITCZ begins near 09N116W and continues to 08N138W. Numerous
moderate to strong convection is from 01N to 11N E of 96W.
Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 06N to 15N
between 97W and 105W, and from 04N to 14N between 120W and 134W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends along the central to northern Gulf of
California northward with high pressure ridging to the west of
Baja California. The resultant pressure gradient is supporting
moderate NW winds for the waters near Baja California and
slightly weaker more offshore. This pressure pattern is also
supporting moderate to fresh SE winds in the northern Gulf of
California. Fresh to strong N winds are in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec with moderate or weaker winds across the remainder of
the waters offshore Mexico. Seas are 5 to 7 ft offshore Gulf of
Tehuantepec, 4 to 6 ft offshore SW Mexico, and 3 to 5 ft
elsewhere except 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of California, to 4 ft in
the northern Gulf.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh SE winds in the northern
Gulf of California will diminish tonight. Pulsing fresh to
locally strong north gap winds will continue in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec into Wed night as a diurnal surface trough is
expected to move from the Yucatan Peninsula to Veracruz, Mexico.
Winds will then pulse to moderate to fresh there thereafter.
Winds are likely to freshen west of Baja California by mid-week
as the pressure gradient tightens slightly, then increase to
fresh to strong mainly north of Cabo San Lazaro by the end of the
week and into the weekend. Winds may build to around 8 ft there
by the start of the weekend.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds are in the Gulf of
Papagayo region. Moderate southerly winds are over the waters
south of the monsoon trough with light and variable winds
elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Seas are 4 to 7 ft in S
to SW swell north and south of the monsoon trough. Very active
convection with intense lightning possible is over the offshore
waters of Panama, Colombia and Costa Rica.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong northeast to east
winds will pulse at night in the Gulf of Papagayo through early
Thu, then pulse moderate to fresh thereafter. Moderate to locally
fresh winds associated with these gap winds will affect the
outer offshore waters of El Salvador and Guatemala through Thu
night. Otherwise, gentle to moderate southerly winds will
continue south of the monsoon trough through the next several
days. Seas will subside somewhat across the waters by the end of
the week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure is analyzed centered well northwest of the
discussion area. A ridge extends from the high center SSE to
around 19N and 108W. A pair of tropical waves are south of the
ridge as described above, one near 139W and one near 113W. Winds
near and west of the 139W wave are fresh with seas of 8 to 10 ft
in the vicinity. Moderate to fresh trades are elsewhere from
roughly 10N to 20N and west of 110W, with seas of 6 to 8 ft.
Gentle to moderate northeast to east trades are elsewhere north
of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, along with 4 to 7 ft seas. South
of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, winds are moderate with seas of
6 to 7 ft in southeast to south swell.

For the forecast, the tropical wave currently along 139W will
move west of 140W later today with associated winds accompanying
it and shifting west of the area by tonight. Seas of 8 to 10 ft
will linger in the wake of the tropical wave through mid-week as
the other tropical wave, currently near 113W moves westward.
Otherwise, moderate to fresh winds will linger from north of the
monsoon trough and ITCZ to around 20N through the week until the
second tropical wave exits, with little change in winds expected
elsewhere.

$$
Ramos