


Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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611 AXPZ20 KNHC 240301 CCA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Jul 24 2025 Corrected Tropical Wave Positions Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0000 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis near 97W from 03N to 17N including across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, moving westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 10N between 86W and 102W, and from 11N to 16N between 94W and 102W. A tropical wave has its axis near 122W from 02N to 18N, moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N to 15.5N between 119W and 123W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 10N75W to across portions of Panama and Costa Rica to 07N107W. The ITCZ extends from 07N107W to 09N120W, then from 10N121W to 11N125W, then from 11N128W to 11N137W, then from 11N140W and beyond. Scattered to numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 09N between 77W and 82W, from 09N to 12N between 125W and 129W, and from 07N to 13N between 132W and 140W. Scattered moderate convection is also well north of the ITCZ from 19N to 26N between 129W and 140W due to a mid-level trough. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface trough is analyzed over the Baja California Peninsula and Gulf of California with a broad and expansive ridge west of Baja California. This pressure pattern is supporting moderate to fresh winds within 60 nm of the west coast of Baja California, with gentle to moderate wind elsewhere offshore Mexico, including in the Gulf of California. An exception is in the immediate Gulf of Tehuantepec where N fresh to strong winds are present. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in the offshore waters in mainly S to SW swell, except 3 ft or less in the Gulf of California north of the entrance. For the forecast, pulsing fresh to locally strong north gap winds will continue in the Gulf of Tehuantepec into Thu as a diurnal surface trough is expected to move from the Yucatan Peninsula to Veracruz, Mexico. Winds will then pulse to moderate to fresh through Sun, except fresh to strong briefing Fri night. More pronounced fresh to strong winds may return there early next week. Moderate to fresh winds west of Baja California are forecast to increase to fresh to strong Thu evening as the pressure gradient tightens, mainly north of Cabo San Lazaro, through the weekend. These winds should diminish by early next week. Seas may build to around 8 ft there by the start of the weekend. Mainly moderate or weaker winds will prevail elsewhere. Seas will be 4 to 6 ft across the open waters. Seas will be 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of California through the next several days. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh northeast to east winds are in the Gulf of Papagayo region with 4 to 6 ft seas. The fetch of these winds reaches the outer half of the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters, supporting seas to 6 ft over this area as well. Elsewhere, across the remainder Central America offshore waters and the waters between Ecuador and The Galapagos, winds are light to gentle with seas of 4 to 5 ft in SW swell. Heavy showers and tstms are over the offshore waters of Panama, Colombia and Costa Rica where locally higher winds and seas are likely. For the forecast, fresh northeast to east winds will pulse at night in the Gulf of Papagayo, locally strong tonight. Moderate to locally fresh winds associated with these gap winds will affect the outer offshore waters of El Salvador and Guatemala through Thu, then again possibly early next week. Otherwise, gentle to moderate southerly winds will continue south of the monsoon trough through the next several days. Seas will subside somewhat across the waters by the end of the week, then build back slightly in new S to SW swell this weekend. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure is centered well northwest of the discussion area with a ridge extending from the high center SSE to around 23N116W. A tropical wave is south of the ridge near 122W, generating scattered showers and tstms, and tightening the pressure gradient, which is leading to the continuation of moderate to fresh NE to E winds from 10N to 20N between 110W and 130W. Farther west, a surface trough near 137W is generating heavy showers and tstms as described above with fresh to locally strong winds in the convection. Seas are 6 to 9 ft in mixed swell from 10N to 20N between 115W and 140W. Elsewhere north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough, gentle to locally moderate winds prevail, along with 4 to 7 ft seas. South of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, winds are moderate to locally fresh, with seas of 6 to 7 ft in mixed southerly swell. For the forecast, moderate to fresh trades with seas of 8 to 9 ft will linger over the western tropical E Pacific waters through Sat night as the surface trough in the western waters and the tropical wave near 122W move westward. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to develop well to the southeast of the Hawaiian Islands by this weekend. Thereafter, some gradual development is possible while the system moves generally westward at around 10 kt. No major changes in winds and seas expected elsewhere through early next week. $$ Lewitsky