611
AXPZ20 KNHC 240301 CCA
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu Jul 24 2025

Corrected Tropical Wave Positions

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis near 97W from 03N to 17N including
across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, moving westward at around
20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 10N between
86W and 102W, and from 11N to 16N between 94W and 102W.

A tropical wave has its axis near 122W from 02N to 18N, moving
westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
from 08N to 15.5N between 119W and 123W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 10N75W to
across portions of Panama and Costa Rica to 07N107W. The ITCZ
extends from 07N107W to 09N120W, then from 10N121W to 11N125W,
then from 11N128W to 11N137W, then from 11N140W and beyond.
Scattered to numerous moderate isolated strong convection is
noted from 04N to 09N between 77W and 82W, from 09N to 12N
between 125W and 129W, and from 07N to 13N between 132W and 140W.
Scattered moderate convection is also well north of the ITCZ
from 19N to 26N between 129W and 140W due to a mid-level trough.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is analyzed over the Baja California Peninsula
and Gulf of California with a broad and expansive ridge west of
Baja California. This pressure pattern is supporting moderate to
fresh winds within 60 nm of the west coast of Baja California,
with gentle to moderate wind elsewhere offshore Mexico,
including in the Gulf of California. An exception is in the
immediate Gulf of Tehuantepec where N fresh to strong winds are
present. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in the offshore waters in mainly S to
SW swell, except 3 ft or less in the Gulf of California north of
the entrance.

For the forecast, pulsing fresh to locally strong north gap
winds will continue in the Gulf of Tehuantepec into Thu as a
diurnal surface trough is expected to move from the Yucatan
Peninsula to Veracruz, Mexico. Winds will then pulse to moderate
to fresh through Sun, except fresh to strong briefing Fri night.
More pronounced fresh to strong winds may return there early next
week. Moderate to fresh winds west of Baja California are
forecast to increase to fresh to strong Thu evening as the
pressure gradient tightens, mainly north of Cabo San Lazaro,
through the weekend. These winds should diminish by early next
week. Seas may build to around 8 ft there by the start of the
weekend. Mainly moderate or weaker winds will prevail elsewhere.
Seas will be 4 to 6 ft across the open waters. Seas will be 1 to
3 ft in the Gulf of California through the next several days.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh northeast to east winds are in the Gulf of Papagayo region
with 4 to 6 ft seas. The fetch of these winds reaches the outer
half of the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters, supporting
seas to 6 ft over this area as well. Elsewhere, across the
remainder Central America offshore waters and the waters between
Ecuador and The Galapagos, winds are light to gentle with seas of
4 to 5 ft in SW swell. Heavy showers and tstms are over the
offshore waters of Panama, Colombia and Costa Rica where
locally higher winds and seas are likely.

For the forecast, fresh northeast to east winds will pulse at
night in the Gulf of Papagayo, locally strong tonight. Moderate
to locally fresh winds associated with these gap winds will
affect the outer offshore waters of El Salvador and Guatemala
through Thu, then again possibly early next week. Otherwise,
gentle to moderate southerly winds will continue south of the
monsoon trough through the next several days. Seas will subside
somewhat across the waters by the end of the week, then build
back slightly in new S to SW swell this weekend.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure is centered well northwest of the discussion area
with a ridge extending from the high center SSE to around
23N116W. A tropical wave is south of the ridge near 122W,
generating scattered showers and tstms, and tightening the
pressure gradient, which is leading to the continuation of
moderate to fresh NE to E winds from 10N to 20N between 110W and
130W. Farther west, a surface trough near 137W is generating heavy
showers and tstms as described above with fresh to locally strong
winds in the convection. Seas are 6 to 9 ft in mixed swell from 10N
to 20N between 115W and 140W. Elsewhere north of the ITCZ and
monsoon trough, gentle to locally moderate winds prevail, along with
4 to 7 ft seas. South of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, winds are
moderate to locally fresh, with seas of 6 to 7 ft in mixed southerly
swell.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh trades with seas of 8 to 9
ft will linger over the western tropical E Pacific waters through
Sat night as the surface trough in the western waters and the
tropical wave near 122W move westward. Looking ahead, an area of low
pressure is forecast to develop well to the southeast of the
Hawaiian Islands by this weekend. Thereafter, some gradual
development is possible while the system moves generally westward at
around 10 kt. No major changes in winds and seas expected elsewhere
through early next week.

$$
Lewitsky