599
AXPZ20 KNHC 040904
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Apr 4 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 10N85W westward to 05N112W. The
ITCZ continues from 05N112W to 06S140W. Widely scattered moderate
convection is occurring south of 06N between 83W and 108W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A trough extends along the west coast of Mexico, and a 1026 mb
high is centered north of the area near 35N130W. Recent
scatterometer satellite data shows moderate to fresh NW winds
occurring offshore of the Baja California peninsula, with a
localized area of strong winds near Cabo San Lucas. Seas of 8 to
9 ft prevail north of Punta Eugenia. In the Gulf of California,
generally light to moderate winds are noted, with a small area of
fresh winds in the central Gulf as seen from scatterometer data.
Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas
prevail offshore of southern Mexico.

For the forecast, rough seas north of Punta Eugenia will slowly
subside this morning. Moderate to fresh NW winds are expected
offshore of Baja California through this weekend as ridging
prevails over the region, and pulsing strong winds and rough seas
will be possible near Cabo San Lucas. Elsewhere, winds will
strengthen to fresh to strong speeds in the southern and central
Gulf of California Sat into early next week, as the pressure
gradient strengthens between high pressure to the west and
troughing over western Mexico. Looking ahead, strong to near-
gale force winds will develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sun
night, with gale conditions and very rough seas possible early
next week. Elsewhere, rough seas promoted by a long-period NW
swell will progress southeastward through the Baja California
waters early next week.

Climatologically, the first gale-force event of the season occurs
in mid-October, with the final gale-force event occurring in late
March or early April. Occasionally, gale-force events may occur
as early as September, and as late as May.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh E winds are pulsing in the Gulf of Papagayo as
low pressure prevails over northwestern Colombia. Otherwise,
gentle to locally moderate winds and moderate seas are noted over
the remainder of the offshore waters.

For the forecast, fresh to strong E winds will pulse in the Gulf
of Papagayo through Sun morning. Moderate to fresh E winds are
expected to extend well beyond the Papagayo region, impacting
areas well offshore of Guatemala and El Salvador through Sat.
Elsewhere, a mix of SW and NW swells will maintain moderate seas
between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands today. Otherwise,
gentle to locally moderate winds are expected across the
remainder of the waters into early next week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....

A 1026 mb high is centered north of the area near 35N130W, and
ridging extends through the eastern Pacific waters. Gentle winds
and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail near the center of the high, as
observed from SOFAR wave height data. Farther south, the pressure
gradient between the high pressure and the ITCZ is leading to
moderate to fresh E to NE winds, north of the ITCZ to 20N and
west of 115W. Recent scatterometer satellite data depicts
localized strong E winds from 10N to 15N west of 130W. Seas in
this region range from 7 to 9 ft in mixed NW and NE swell.
Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft prevail
over the remainder of the waters.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds and rough seas
will occur into Sun, generally between 05N and 25N west of 115W,
as high pressure prevails in the eastern Pacific. A cold front
drifting eastward over the northern waters this weekend will
weaken the influence of the ridge, leading to moderate trade
winds in the aforementioned region early next week. A long-
period NW swell associated with the cold front is slated to
progress southeastward across the waters Sun into next week,
producing rough seas in excess of 8 ft north of 25N and west of
135W by Sat night, and north of 15N and west of 130W through Sun
morning. Very rough seas in excess of 12 ft will be possible
north of 20N and west of 130W on Sun. Rough seas will continue to
progress southeastward through early next week.

$$
ADAMS