569
AXPZ20 KNHC 092253
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Nov 9 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Fresh N gap winds today will
quickly increase to strong speeds this evening and reach gale
force late tonight, as a strong cold front sweeps through the
Gulf of America and high pressure builds north of the front. A
large expanse of gale force winds are expected as far south and
west as 12N98W by early Tue, and seas of 12 to 21 ft will occur
near these winds. Gale force winds will prevail through Wed
morning, with winds pulsing to strong to near-gale force through
Fri morning.

Large NW swell across the northwestern waters: Large NW swell,
associated with a series of cold fronts moving through the
northwestern waters, will support a wide expanse of rough seas
through early this week over much of the eastern Pacific. Seas in
excess of 8 ft will occur north of 20N and west of 130W by late
tonight, and north of 12N and west of 120W by late Mon. Very rough
seas of 12 to 15 ft are expected north of 25N and west of 133W
through Mon. Rough seas will slowly diminish from north to south
through midweek, with seas north of 20N falling below 8 ft by early
Wed, and south of 20N by Thu. Looking ahead, a new NW swell will
lead to rough to very rough seas over this same region Wed night
through late week.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78.5W to 07N81W t0 09N140W.
Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 08N to 13N
between 88W and 93W, and from 08N to 12N west of 135W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for additional
information on the Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

Fresh N winds have developed in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
Elsewhere, a 1014 mb low has been analyzed over northwestern
Mexico near 27N109W and a surface trough extends northwestward
through Sonora, and southeastward to 23N107W. Recent
scatterometer satellite data show moderate NW winds are occurring in
the central and southern Gulf of California. Moderate or weaker
winds prevail over the rest of the Mexico offshore waters as weak
ridging extends over the region. Recent altimeter data show residual
NW swell is leading to rough seas of 8 to 9 ft offshore of Baja,
south of Punta Eugenia, and offshore of southwestern Mexico. Seas of
4 to 7 ft prevail offshore of southern Mexico, with 1 to 3 ft seas
in the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, fresh N gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec today
will quickly increase to strong speeds this evening and reach gale
force late tonight, as a strong cold front sweeps through the Gulf
of America and high pressure builds north of the front. A large
expanse of gale force winds are expected as far south and west as
12N98W by early Tue, and seas of 12 to 21 ft will occur near these
winds. Gale force winds will prevail through Wed morning, with winds
pulsing to strong to near-gale force through Fri morning. Elsewhere,
rough seas offshore of Baja California and southwestern Mexico will
slowly subside from northwest to southeast by tonight, though rough
seas may persist near the Revillagigedo Islands through Mon. In the
Gulf of California, moderate to fresh NW winds will pulse through
Mon as troughing prevails over the region.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate NE winds are occurring in the Gulf of Papagayo as low
pressure prevails over northwestern Colombia. Gentle to moderate
NE to NW winds are occurring elsewhere north of the monsoon
trough while moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds continue to
the south, as noted on scatterometer data. Mixed NW and SW swell
are supporting 4 to 6 ft seas over the regional waters, with 7
ft seas noted south of the Galapagos Islands and offshore of
Ecuador.

For the forecast, fresh NE winds will pulse in the Gulf of
Papagayo through much of this week as a cold front sweeps through
the Gulf of America and the Caribbean Sea and high pressure
builds north of the front. Winds may reach strong speeds each
night and morning by midweek. Fresh to locally strong N to NE
winds will be possible in the Gulf of Fonseca and south of El
Salvador Tue night into Wed. Offshore of Guatemala, expect fresh
to locally strong NE winds and very rough seas Mon night through
midweek as a significant gale force wind event occurs in the Gulf
of Tehuantepec. Rough seas will expand southeastward to well
offshore of El Salvador and Guatemala early Tue into Wed.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A series of cold fronts are noted over the northwest waters,
stemming from a complex low pressure system centered offshore of
British Columbia. The first cold front is decaying, and extends
from 30N134W to 24.5N138.5W. The second cold front is currently
entering the discussion waters. Recent scatterometer data show
moderate SE to SW winds are occurring along the first cold front,
with moderate N winds noted near the second front. A new NW
swell is leading to rough seas north of 24N and west of 133W, with
12 to 15 ft seas north of 27N and west of 136W, as noted via recent
altimeter and SOFAR buoy data. Ridging extends over much of the rest
of the eastern Pacific. Mainly gentle to moderate winds are
occurring north of the monsoon trough, with locally fresh NE winds
noted in the trade wind region. Moderate to fresh SE to SW winds are
occurring south of the monsoon trough. Residual NW swell is
supporting rough seas of 8 to 9 ft east of 125W offshore of Baja
California Sur, and over much of the waters south of 20N.

For the forecast, large NW swell, associated with a series of
cold fronts moving through the northwestern waters, will support
a wide expanse of rough seas through early this week over much of
the eastern Pacific. Seas in excess of 8 ft will occur north of
20N and west of 130W by late tonight, and north of 12N and west of
120W by late Mon. Very rough seas of 12 to 15 ft are expected north
of 25N and west of 133W through Mon. Rough seas will slowly diminish
from north to south through midweek, with seas north of 20N falling
below 8 ft by early Wed, and south of 20N by Thu. Looking ahead, a
new NW swell will lead to rough to very rough seas over this same
region Wed night through late week. Looking ahead, strong E to NE
winds and rough seas generated by a gale force gap wind event in the
Gulf of Tehuantepec will spread large NE swell into the waters from
05N to 15N and east of 110W Mon night through Wed before diminishing.

$$
ADAMS