430
AXPZ20 KNHC 060725
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Dec 6 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0700 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09.5N84.5W to 07.5N93.5W to
12N107W to 10N120W. The ITCZ continues from 10N120W to 08N134W to
beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from
07.5N to 10N between 83W and 87.5W, from 06N to 09N between 90W
and 94.5W, from 08N to 10.5N between 104W and 108W, from 06.5N to
09.5N between 114.5W and 121W, and from 05.5N to 08.5N between
131W and 139W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is analyzed from near Mazatlan, Mexico at
22N106W to 12.5N106.5W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted on conventional satellite imagery from 13N
to 21N between 101W and 108.5W. A surge of fresh to locally
strong winds near the trough offshore Mazatlan has diminished
during the past few hours as noted on a recent ASCAT
scatterometer pass. Otherwise, a ridge extends along the far
offshore waters boundary. Mainly gentle to locally moderate winds
prevail across the offshore waters, except fresh in the central
Gulf of California due to a locally tight pressure gradient with
these winds also captured by a recent ASCAT swath.

For the forecast, occasionally fresh N to NW winds are expected
in the Gulf of California through early next week as broad
troughing persists from near Baja California Sur to the S-SW and
with ridging to the W of the area. Looking ahead, strong to
near-gale force N gap winds and rough seas will develop in the
Gulf of Tehuantepec by early next week as a cold front moves over
the Gulf of America and high pressure builds in central Mexico
in the wake of the front. Fresh winds may develop near Cabo
Corrientes Tue night into Wed with troughing along western
Mexico.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Prevailing low pressure in the S-central Caribbean is supporting
moderate to locally fresh NE winds in the Gulf of Papagayo.
Gentle to moderate N to NE winds are occurring elsewhere N of the
monsoon trough, with mainly moderate S to SW winds noted to the
S of the monsoon trough per recent ASCAT scatterometer data.
Moderate seas in mixed NW and S swell prevail over the regional
waters, except slight nearshore Colombia and eastern Panama.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE gap winds will pulse in
the Gulf of Papagayo into today as low pressure prevails in the
S-central Caribbean. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas in mixed NW and S swell are expected over the
regional waters into early next week. Looking ahead, high
pressure will build across interior Central America by the middle
of next week, supporting pulsing fresh winds in the Gulf of
Papagayo.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface trough is analyzed from near Mazatlan, Mexico at
22N106W to 12.5N106.5W. 1030 mb high pressure centered well NW
of the area near 36N139W extends a ridge through 30N130W to
14N115W to the N of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. Moderate to
fresh NE winds are occurring N of the monsoon trough and ITCZ and
W of 118W. Seas of 6-9 ft in mixed NW and NE to E swell are
occurring in this region. To the S of the ITCZ and W of 120W,
moderate to fresh SE winds are occurring, with mainly moderate
winds across the remainder of the waters along with moderate
seas.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh N to NE winds will occur
N of the monsoon trough and ITCZ into early next week as high
pressure dominates the eastern Pacific while the surface trough
lingers. Mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere,
except locally fresh S of the monsoon trough and W of 100W at
times. Rough seas will persist in the western waters N of 06N
and west of 127W this weekend before they subside into early
next week. Moderate seas are expected elsewhere over the eastern
Pacific. Looking ahead, a new set of rough NW swell may arrive
over the NW waters by the middle of next week.

$$
Lewitsky