968
AXPZ20 KNHC 180905
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Oct 18 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient is
present between low pressure in the western Caribbean Sea and a
building ridge over eastern Mexico. This pattern will support N
winds that will funnel through the Chivela Pass into the Gulf of
Tehuantepec. Gale force winds are expected in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec this evening through Sat night, and seas of 10-12 ft
will accompany these winds. Strong winds will persist into Sun
night before diminishing briefly on Mon. Winds will restrengthen
to strong to near gale force again late Mon through the middle of
next week.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 11N115W. The ITCZ
continues from 11N115W to a 1011 mb low centered near 11N133W,
to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate to locally strong
convection is noted from 09N to 14N between 105W and 116W, and
from 08N to 12N west of 130W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for information on the
Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehunatepec.

Troughing extends from southwestern Arizona through central
Mexico and a 1027 mb high is centered near 40N133W. This pattern
is supporting moderate NW winds offshore of Baja California.
Recent altimeter data depict seas of 5-8 ft in this region. Fresh
to locally strong S to SW gap winds are noted on a recent
scatterometer satellite pass in the Gulf of California, and
associated seas are 3-5 ft. Strong to near gale force N winds are
occurring in the Gulf of Tehuantepec and accompanying seas are
8-10 ft. Elsewhere, gentle winds and seas of 4-6 ft prevail.

For the forecast, strengthening low pressure in the northern Gulf
of California will promote fresh to strong S to SW winds this
morning before turning to the N this afternoon. Associated seas
of 4-7 ft are expected in this region. Winds in this area will
diminish this weekend. Increasing NW swell will promote locally
rough seas offshore of Baja California Norte today into Sat
morning. Troughing will become established this weekend over the
Gulf of California, and moderate to locally fresh NW winds are
expected from the Gulf of California southward to offshore of
Michoacan and Guerrero Sun into next week. Looking ahead, an
area of low pressure is expected to form by the middle part of
next week well offshore of southwestern Mexico. Gradual
development is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression
could form during the middle to latter portion of next week as
the system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle SW winds prevail north of the monsoon trough, and
gentle to locally moderate S to SW winds are occurring south of
the trough. Seas of 4-5 ft are noted in the offshore waters of
Central and South America.

For the forecast, gentle to locally moderate S to SW winds will
occur south of the monsoon trough today, with locally fresh
winds occurring at times Sat into early next week. North of the
monsoon trough, light to gentle winds will prevail. Building S to
SW swell this weekend will lead to locally rough seas in the
waters offshore of Colombia and Ecuador, as well as in the far
offshore waters of Central America. Active convection
accompanying a tropical wave across the west Caribbean will shift
westward into the Pacific offshore waters from Costa Rica to
Guatemala tonight through Sun morning.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A cold front extends southwestward from 1015 mb low centered
near 28N126W. Fresh NE winds and locally rough seas are noted to
the north of the front. Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong NE
winds are occurring north of the ITCZ, generally west of 125W and
south of 24N. Seas of 8-10 ft are likely occurring in this area.
South of the ITCZ and monsoon trough, moderate S to SE winds and
seas of 5-8 ft prevail.

For the forecast, the cold front will progress southward to near
25N through Sat morning before dissipating. A period of fresh NE
winds are anticipated immediately behind the front through
tonight, with moderate NE swell moving into the regional waters.
Fresh to briefly strong trades will continue north of the ITCZ
today before diminishing this weekend. NW swell across the
regional waters will gradually subside over the next few days.
New southerly swell will cross the equator on Sat.

$$
ADAMS