723
AXPZ20 KNHC 250259
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Mon Nov 25 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0220 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10.5N73W to 08.5N91W to 09N121W
to 10N132W. The ITCZ continues from 10N132W to beyond 08.5N140W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 10.5N between 96W
and 127W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The pressure gradient between weakening high pressure over the
Gulf of Mexico and southeastern Mexico, and lower pressure
within the EPAC monsoon trough continues to support fresh winds
over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A weak stationary front across
central Baja California has dissipated. 1019 mb high pressure NW
of that old boundary pressure is centered near 31N120W and
extends a weak ridge to offshore of Cabo Corrientes. The
pressure gradient between the high pressure ridging and a surface
trough along western Mexico is supporting gentle to moderate
NW to N winds across the waters west of the Baja California
peninsula, where seas are in the 4-6 ft range. Light to gentle
winds, and seas of 4-5 ft prevail over the remainder of the open
waters off Mexico. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 1-3 ft, are
over the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, weak surface ridging W of the area will
support gentle to locally moderate NW to N winds W of the Baja
California peninsula throughout the week. Strong to near gale-
force N winds will develop in the Tehuantepec Mon night through
the middle of the week before diminishing. Fresh to strong winds
will once again develop over Tehuantepec by the end of the week.
Moderate S swell will move through the area waters from Cabo
Corrientes eastward Mon night through the middle of the week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh winds are noted over and downwind the Gulf of
Papagayo area, with seas of 5-6 ft. Light to gentle winds, and
seas of 4-5 ft, are elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. S of the
monsoon trough, gentle to moderate SW to W winds and seas of 4-5
ft prevail.

For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh winds will
continue across the Gulf of Papagayo area through Mon night.
Otherwise, light to gentle winds are expected N of the monsoon
trough. Gentle to moderate SW to W winds will prevail S of the
monsoon trough. Cross equatorial SW swell is expected to move
into the regional waters tonight, increasing seas to 8 ft between
Ecuador, Colombia and the Galapagos Islands through the middle
of the week. The swell will propagate northward, increasing seas
to 7 ft elsewhere early Mon through the middle of the week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A stationary front across the central Baja California waters to
near 26N127W earlier has dissipated. A second stationary front
is over the far NW waters along 30N to the W of 134W. Moderate
to fresh S winds are east of this stationary front to 128W. NW
swell generated behind the front is producing seas of 8-9 ft
over the far NW waters. Weak high pressure prevails south of the
stationary fronts and N of 120W. The pressure gradient between
the area of high pressure and lower pressure within the monsoon
trough and in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate
trade winds and seas of 6-8 ft, N of the ITCZ/monsoon trough to
20N and W of 110W. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 6-8 ft,
are south of the monsoon trough/ITCZ.

For the forecast, the stationary front across the NW waters will
meander W of 130W for the next few days, while low pressure
forms along the front just NW of the area waters. This will
maintain moderate to fresh SW winds and seas around 8 ft across
these NW waters through late Tue. To the south, moderate to
locally fresh trade winds will continue south of 20N, with
moderate seas through Fri. Cross equatorial S to SW swell will
move north of the equator tonight and raise seas to 7 to 9 ft
across the waters S of 18N and E of 125W Mon through early Wed.

$$
Stripling