012
AXPZ20 KNHC 040406
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat Oct 4 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Octave is centered near 13.8N 122.7W at 04/0300
UTC, moving west-northwest at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with
gusts to 60 kt. Peak seas are 18 ft. Numerous moderate to strong
convection is observed from 12N to 15N between 120W and 124W.
The tropical storm is expected to slow and move northward on
Sunday, and then turn slowly eastward early next week. Small
fluctuations in intensity are expected tonight. Some additional
strengthening is possible by the end of the weekend.

Please read the latest NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Octave NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Offshore of the Southwestern Coast of Mexico (EP99):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to become better organized in
association with a broad low pressure system located a few
hundred miles off the coast of southwestern Mexico. Additional
development is expected, and a tropical depression will likely
form later tonight or tomorrow. The system is forecast to move
very slowly west-northwestward, parallel to but offshore of the
southwestern coast of Mexico for the next several days. This
system has a high chance for tropical cyclone formation within
the next 48 hours. Regardless of development, a gale warning is
ongoing in association with this system. Interests along the
southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this
system. For additional information on this system, please see
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.

Please read the latest TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml and the latest NWS
HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at
website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 11N92W to 15N113W, then
resumes near 11N126W and continues to 09N140W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 02N to 17N E of 100W and from 05N to
10N between 130W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on a
low pressure located near 13N105W that has a high chance for
tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours.

A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California
supporting moderate to fresh NW to N winds north of Cabo San
Lazaro and light to gentle winds between Cabo San Lazaro and Cabo
San Lucas. Long period northerly swell continues to propagate
across the waters W of Baja California with seas of 8 to 10 ft.
Light and variable winds and slight seas prevail in the Gulf of
California. Winds and seas are on increase across the Mexican
offshore forecast waters between Puerto Angel and Manzanillo due
to the presence of EP99.

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the offshore
forecast waters of Baja California this weekend supporting
moderate to fresh NW to N winds N of Cabo San Lazaro, and gentle
to moderate winds between Cabo San Lazaro and Cabo San Lucas.
Long period NW swell off Baja California will support moderate
to rough seas in the outer waters through late Sat night. Marine
conditions are forecast to deteriorate across the Mexican
offshore waters S of Cabo Corrientes this weekend due to a
developing tropical cyclone. Fresh to strong N to NE winds are
expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight into Sat morning.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Unsettled weather conditions persist across the offshore waters
of Central America and Colombia. Meanwhile, a weak pressure
gradient continues to influence the region, sustaining gentle to
moderate S to SW winds S of the monsoon trough and light to
gentle winds to the N of it. Moderate seas in SW swell dominate
the area.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected
south of the monsoon trough into early next week. Southerly
swell will continue to propagate across the region, with a new
set of long period SW swell reaching the Galapagos Island Sat
night into Sun. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas will
persist north of the monsoon trough.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on
Tropical Storm Octave, and on a low pressure (EP99) located
offshore of SW Mexico with the potential for tropical cyclone
formation.

Outside of Octave, a cold front reaches the forecast area near
30N117W and extends SW to near 26N128W. Mainly moderate N to NE
winds and rough seas in NW swell follow the front. Farther south,
a surface trough is along 135W. Satellite-derived wind data show
moderate to locally fresh southerly winds south of the monsoon
trough W of 110W. Moderate to rough seas are noted within these
winds. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas
prevail.

For the forecast, Octave will move to 14.2N 123.5W Sat morning,
14.8N 124.2W Sat evening, 15.3N 124.2W Sun morning, 15.5N 123.9W
Sun evening, 15.7N 123.1W Mon morning, and 15.5N 121.8W Mon
evening. Octave will change little in intensity as it moves near
15.0N 120.0W late Tue. The area of NW swell will continue to
spread southward and weaken by Sun. Meanwhile, a new set of large
southerly swell will propagate toward the equator during the
weekend and into early next week.

$$
Ramos