946
AXPZ20 KNHC 052204
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Jun 05 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms is
currently located several hundred miles south of southern
Mexico. Within this area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms, a tropical wave axis is near 100W/101W from 06N
to 16N. Latest satellite imagery shows numerous moderate to
isolated strong convection from 06N to 11N between 97W-102W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 11N to 16N between 96W-
102W. Low pressure is expected to form during the next day or so
a few hundred miles south of southern Mexico. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form over the weekend while the system
moves generally west-northwestward. The expected low has a
medium chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48
hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook
at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from low pressure of 1010 mb
along the coast of Colombia westward to northern Costa Rica,
then southwestward to 10N90W then northwestward to 12N100W and
southwestward to 09N100W and to 07N119W, where it transitions to
the ITCZ to 08N130W and to beyond 08N140W. Aside from the
large disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms described
above under Special Features, clusters of scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection are seen within 120 nm north of the
trough between 102W-109W. Scattered moderate convection is within
180 nm N of the trough between 90W-96W, and within 60 nm N of
the ITCZ between 110W-112W and between 123W-125W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for information on
a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located
several hundred miles S of the southern coast of Mexico from
which low pressure is expected to form with potential for
tropical cyclone development.

Strong high pressure of 1036 mb is analyzed well N of the area.
An associated ridge extends from the high southeastward to near
the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the
ridge and relatively lower pressures inland Mexico supports
gentle to moderate NW to N winds W of the Baja California
peninsula. Moderate to fresh NW winds are in the vicinity of
Cabo San Lucas. Seas are generally 4 to 6 ft as indicated by the
latest altimeter satellite data passes across these waters.

Light to gentle winds are in the Gulf of California. Slight seas
are in the Gulf. Seas of 3 to 4 ft in long-period SW swell are
near the entrance to the Gulf. Light to gentle NW to N winds are
along and offshore the coast of Mexico from Mazatlan to Puerto
Angel while gentle moderate E winds are in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec region. Seas over these waters are 4 to 6 ft in
long-period S to SW swell.

For the forecast, the ridge will remain in control of the
weather pattern across the offshore waters of Baja California
through Sat, with the associated gradient leading to gentle
to moderate NW winds along with moderate seas. Fresh to locally
strong NW to N winds are expected near Cabo San Lucas tonight.
Looking ahead, low pressure is expected to form from a large
area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms that is located
several hundred miles south of southern Mexico. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form over the weekend while the
system moves generally west-northwestward. Expect for winds to
increase and seas to build across the offshore waters of
southern and western Mexico during the weekend. A second low
pressure area is forecast to form on the western side of the
monsoon trough south of Mexico in a couple of days possibly
staying just S of the offshore waters zones. Some slow
development of this system is possible over the weekend.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A weak pressure gradient remains over the area resulting in
gentle to moderate southerly winds south of the monsoon trough,
and light to gentle winds to the N of it. Cross-equatorial SW
swell is producing moderate seas across the offshore forecast
waters.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate S to SW winds will occur
south of the monsoon trough through this weekend, with mainly
gentle winds expected to the north. Moderate seas in cross-
equatorial swell are likely over the regional waters into this
weekend. Winds are forecast to increase to fresh to strong speeds
offshore Nicaragua Fri night. Abundant tropical moisture will
persist across the region increasing the likelihood of showers
and thunderstorms through at least Sat night.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....

Strong high pressure of 1036 mb is analyzed well N of the area
near 41N142W. Broad ridging extends from the high pressure
southward over the forecast region, covering most of the waters
N of the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough and W of 110W. The associated
gradient is resulting in generally gentle to moderate trades
over the forecast waters, with the exception of fresh N to NE
winds over the NW waters, primarily N of about 25N and W of a
line from 30N126W to 25N130W. Rough seas in N to NE swell are
occurring with these winds. A weak trough is analyzed from
30N124W to 25N128W. This feature breaks down the high pressure
gradient allowing for a weak pressure pattern to exist generally
over the waters E of 130W.

For the forecast, the fresh N to NE winds will persist across
the NW waters through early Fri. The swell event generated by
strong to gale force N winds between the aforementioned high
center and relatively lower pressures in California will continue
to propagate across the northern forecast waters through Fri
before subsiding late Fri night.

$$
Aguirre