092
AXPZ20 KNHC 081554
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Nov 8 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Excessive Rainfall Risk in Southern Central America: Persistent
SW flow bringing rich, deep-layer moisture along with divergent
flow aloft will support the potential for heavy rainfall across
southern Central America into early next week. This may particularly
impact Costa Rica, where rainfall amounts may be in excess of 20
inches (500 mm) through Tue. Rainfall amounts as high as 10 inches
(250 mm) may impact Panama through Tue as well. This information
is provided by the Weather Prediction Center`s International
desk team. Please refer to your national weather agency for details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from near the border of Guatemala and
El Salvador near 14N90W to 1011 mb low pressure near 11N103W, to
1011 mb low pressure near 13N114W, to 1011 mb low pressure near
10N128W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted from 05N to 08N between 85W and the coast of
Colombia. Similar convection is also occurring from 08N to 11N
between 102W and 105W, and from 09N to 12N between 89W and 91W.
Scattered moderate convection can be found from 05N to 07N
between 85W and 90W, and from 10N to 13N between 99W and 103W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Latest scatterometer satellite pass confirmed the presence of
fresh to strong NW winds across the Gulf of California from 25N
to 28N. These winds are the result of the pressure gradient between
low pressure over north-central Mexico, and higher pressure west
of the region. Seas are 5 to 8 ft within these winds. Plumes of
fresh to strong northerly winds are also noted on either side of
Los Cabos in the southern part of the Baja California peninsula.
Moderate to locally fresh easterly gap winds are seen across the
Baja California peninsula into the adjacent Pacific waters,
primarily near Punta Eugenia. Farther south, the scatterometer
also sampled moderate to fresh northerly gap winds across the
Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gentle to moderate winds persist elsewhere
across the Mexican offshore waters, with moderate combined seas
in NW swell.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong NW to N winds and moderate
to rough seas across the southern Gulf of California will persist
through Sat morning, with the winds spreading beyond the entrance
to the Gulf by tonight. Moderate to fresh N winds are pulsing
across the Gulf of Tehuantepec mainly at night from late Sat
through late Mon. Mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail
elsewhere, possibly freshening offshore Baja California north of
Cabo San Lazaro Mon night through Tue. Meanwhile, seas of 4 to 7
ft in the open waters are forecast to persist into early next
week, building north of Cabo San Lazaro with the freshening winds
Mon night into early Tue. Looking ahead, a significant and large
NW swell event may arrive offshore Baja California Norte by mid-
week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on an
Excessive Rainfall Risk in Southern Central America.

A surge in SW flow of southern Central America is supporting a
band of moderate to isolated strong convection from 05N to 08N
between 85W and the coast of Colombia. Earlier altimeter data
indicated wave heights to 8 ft off Panama, Colombia and Ecuador,
likely with a component of SW swell. Gentle to moderate breezes
and moderate seas are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, the moderate to fresh SW winds and large SW
swell will continue impact the offshore waters of Panama into
Sat, with moderate to fresh winds pulsing again into Costa Rica
Sun and Mon. Farther south, large SW swell off Ecuador and
Colombia will subside today. Mostly moderate winds and seas will
persist elsewhere.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A scatterometer pass indicated fresh to strong winds ongoing near
the remnant low that was Fourteen-E 11N103W, although the wind
and cloud pattern indicate this feature is becoming more disorganized
along the monsoon trough. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection are still active within about 120 nm in the SW
quadrant of the low center. As previously mentioned, two additional
areas of weak low pressure are noted along the monsoon trough
near 114W and 128W.

A weak trough is analyzed farther north and extends from 30N128W
to 20N121W. This is breaking up the subtropical ridge in the
area, which in turn is allowing mostly gentle to moderate breezes
farther south across the region. A cold front is near 30N140W.

A large area of 7 to 8 ft combined seas persist over the tropical
Pacific waters from 06N to 11N between 100W AND 106W, in a
combination of northerly and southerly swell. Farther north,
combined seas of 6 to 8 ft are evident north of 25N between 125W
and 135W in northerly swell. Moderate combined seas are noted
elsewhere.

For the forecast, the weak lows along the monsoon trough will
become less defined through Sat with winds across the open
waters west of 120W mainly gentle to moderate. Winds are
forecast to increase slightly to moderate to fresh north of the
monsoon trough and west of 120W thereafter into early next week
as high pressure builds in across those waters in the wake of a
dying cold front passing by mainly north of 30N. Meanwhile,
moderate to fresh winds will be south of the monsoon trough to
about the Equator through the upcoming weekend with seas of
around 8 ft there. A new set of NW swell will push southeast of
30N140W into early Sat, with seas of 7 to 9 ft NW of a line from
30N125W to 24N130W to 18N138W by Sun morning. Those seas will
decay thereafter. Looking ahead, a larger and more significant
set of NW swell may impact the region north of 10N and west of
125W from late Mon night through mid-week.

$$
GR