830
AXPZ20 KNHC 192218
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Jul 19 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800  UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery
through 2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Recently upgraded Tropical Storm Fausto is centered near 12.4N
112.7W at 19/2100 UTC, moving west-northwest at 11 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are currently to 12 ft,
or 4 m. The tropical cyclone`s overall cloud pattern is gradually
becoming more consolidated. Satellite imagery shows numerous
moderate to strong convection from 09N to 13N between 112W and
118W. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 60 nm of the
center in the SE quadrant. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is from 14N to 17N between 107W and 112W. Fausto is
forecast to achieve a west-northwestward or northwestward motion
at a slightly slower forward speed is expected over the next
couple of days. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during
the next couple of days, and Fausto is forecast to become a
hurricane by Mon night. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website-
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Six-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Tropical Storm Elida is centered near 23.2N 125.9W at 19/2100
UTC, moving north-northwest at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 996 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with
gusts to 60 kt. Peak seas are currently around 22 ft, or 6.5 m.
Satellite imagery shows that the earlier observed deep convection
near the center has weakened since this morning. Presently,
numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is from 22N to
25N between 123W and 126W. Elida is expected to increase in
forward speed as it turns more northward over the next couple of
days. Weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and
the cyclone is likely to dissipate by late Wed. Swells generated
by Elida will affect portions of the west coast of the Baja
California Peninsula and southern California through the early
part of the week. These swells will likely result in life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office. Please read the latest
HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at
website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the
latest Elida NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from a 1008 mb low pressure that
is over northern Colombia westward to across Panama and to 09N92W
to 10N102W and northwestward to just of Tropical Storm Fausto. It
resumes to the southwest of Fausto at 12N115W, and continues to
11N125W to 10N134W and to 09N140W. Numerous moderate to strong
convection is within 240 nm south of the trough between
129W-140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
within 120 nm south of the trough from 04N to 07N between
87W-91W, and within 180 nm south of the trough between 123W-127W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on
recently upgraded Tropical Storm Fausto, centered about 650
nautical miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja
California, and on Tropical Storm Elida, centered about 880
nautical miles west of the southern tip of Baja California.

The earlier fresh to strong north to northeast winds in the Gulf
of Tehuantepec have diminished to moderate to fresh speeds
this afternoon per a 1632Z Ascat-B pass. Otherwise, rather broad
high pressure is over the offshore waters, with its associated
gradient generally providing for light to gentle winds. Outer
associated rough seas from Elida near the far outer offshore
waters boundary of Baja California are pulling away from
the offshore waters. Moderate seas dominate elsewhere as seen
in satellite altimeter data passes. Rough seas associated with
recently upgraded Tropical Storm Fausto are just encroaching
on the extreme southern boundary of offshore waters zone that
includes the Revillagigedo Islands, with seas of 7 to 9 ft in
mixed southeast and southwest swell. Slight seas remain in
the Gulf of California. Winds in the Gulf are light to gentle,
except with spots of moderate winds in the central and northern
Gulf sections. Very active convection is present near the
monsoon trough across much of the offshore waters between 102W
and 113W. This activity reaches to along the coast of Guerrero
and southern Jalisco. It may contain locally higher winds and
seas possible near any thunderstorms.

For the forecast, recently upgraded Tropical Storm Fausto will
move to near 13.1N 114.1W late tonight, to near 14.2N 115.8W Mon
afternoon, strengthen to a hurricane near 15.4N 117.3W late Mon
night, move to near 16.3N 118.7W Tue afternoon, and continue to
pull away from the offshore waters zones through Thu. Associated
increasing winds and building seas are forecast to impact
portions of the waters well offshore southwest Mexico to the
Revillagigedo Islands through Tue night. Fresh to strong
northerly winds will begin to pulse again in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec beginning tonight, and through the next several
days, with locally rough seas at times. In the Gulf of
California, gentle to moderate winds and slight seas will
prevail, except for locally fresh winds in the northern part of
the Gulf through Wed. Northwest winds may freshen nearshore Baja
California Norte Tue night through Thu as a building ridge
temporarily tightens there. Looking ahead, a broad area of low
pressure is forecast to develop well south of Mexico during the
latter part of the week leading to increasing winds and seas
possibly impacting portions of the outer offshore waters of
southern and southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for development of the system thereafter, and a
tropical depression could form while it moves westward to west-
northwestward across the eastern and central portions of the
eastern Pacific.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong northeast to east winds continue across the Papagayo
region and downwind to near 09N91W. Moderate to fresh northeast
winds are near the Gulf of Fonseca. Seas are 6 to 8 ft
downstream of Papagayo. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate
seas, primarily in south to southwest swell, dominate the
remainder of the offshore waters, except slight seas in the
immediate lee of the Galapagos Islands and near shore western
Colombia. Very active convection is present near the monsoon
trough across much of the offshore waters, primarily south and
southeast of Costa Rica. This activity may contain locally higher
winds and seas possible near thunderstorms.

For the forecast, fresh to strong northeast to east winds along
with moderate to rough seas will persist across the Papagayo
region through most of the week, with moderate to fresh
northeast winds pulsing near the Gulf of Fonseca. Gentle to
moderate north winds are expected in the Gulf of Panama with
slight to moderate seas. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate
seas in southwest swell are expected elsewhere, except in the
immediate lee of the Galapagos Islands and nearshore western
Colombia where slight seas are forecast.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on
recently upgraded Tropical Storm Fausto, centered about 650
nautical miles south-southwwest of the southern tip of Baja
California, and on Tropical Storm Elida, centered about 880
nautical miles west of the southern tip of Baja California.

Both of the above tropical cyclones dominate this part of
the area. Otherwise, broad ridging prevails both west and east
of Elida. Winds are mainly moderate or weaker across the
remainder of the open waters along with moderate seas, except
moderate to locally fresh in the south-central waters south of
05N between 105W and 124W along with 7 to 9 ft in southeast to
south swell over those waters. Very active convection, in large
clusters, continues to be present near the monsoon trough. It may
be producing locally higher winds and seas.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Elida will move to near 24.8N 126.6W
late tonight, to near 27.4N 127.2W Mon afternoon, to near
30.1N 127.5W late Mon night, and weaken to a remnant low north of
the area near 32.7N 127.5W Tue afternoon and dissipate Thu
afternoon. Tropical Storm Fausto is forecast to move to near
13.1N 114.1W late tonight, to near 14.2N 115.8W Mon afternoon,
strengthen to a hurricane near 15.4N 117.3W late Mon night, the
reach to near 16.3N 118.7W Tue afternoon, to near 16.7N 120.1W
late Tue night, and to near 17.0N 121.8W Wed afternoon. Fausto
will change little in intensity as it moves to the near 17.6N
126.0W Thu afternoon. Associated increasing winds and building
seas are forecast to impact portions of the waters well offshore
southwest Mexico. Moderate to fresh winds and locally rough seas
over the south-central waters that follow in behind Fausto will
gradually spread northward through the early part of the week.
Little change in marine conditions is expected across the
remainder of the open waters at least into midweek.

Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure is forecast to
develop well south of Mexico during the latter part of the week.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of the
system thereafter, and a tropical depression could form while it
moves westward to west- northwestward across the eastern and
central portions of the eastern Pacific.

$$
Aguirre