305
AXPZ20 KNHC 072108
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Dec 7 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The next gap wind event in the
Gulf of Tehuantepec is forecast to begin on Mon as a cold front
moves over the Gulf of America and high pressure builds across
the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre mountains in the wake of
the front. Fresh to strong northerly winds will setup in the Gulf
of Tehuantepec early Mon, then increase to gale-force Mon evening.
Gale-force winds will then likely persist through early Tue
afternoon. Rough seas, peaking around 12 or 13 ft, are expected
with this event Mon night into early Tue morning when winds may
briefly reach 40 kt.

Of note: The monthly distribution of Tehuantepec events shows
that the largest number of gale force events occurs in December.
Storm-force events occur most often in January.

Please read the latest High Seas issued by the National Hurricane
Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 07N95W to 12N110W to
09N121W. The ITCZ continues from 09N121W to beyond 08N140W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 18N between
103W and 117W, and from 06N to 10N between 122W and 138W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehunatepec. Please
see the Special Features section for more information.

A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California
producing mainly gentle to moderate NW to N winds with moderate
seas. In the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate northerly
winds and slight seas are noted, particularly across the central
part of the Gulf. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas in long
period NW swell are observed across the remainder of the Mexican
offshore waters.

For the forecast, occasionally fresh NW to N winds and moderate
seas are expected in the central Gulf of California tonight through
Tue due to the pressure gradient between a trough over NW Mexico
and a ridge offshore the Baja California peninsula. Looking ahead,
the next gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec is expected
to begin on Mon reaching gale force. Please, see the Special
Features section for more details. Fresh N winds may develop near
Cabo Corrientes Tue night through Wed night.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds prevail N of 06N with gentle to moderate
southerly winds S of 06N per latest scatterometer data. Seas are
mainly moderate in mixed SW and NW swell, with exception of
slight seas nearshore, and in the lee of the Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, mainly gentle winds will prevail N of the
monsoon trough through the next several days, except increasing
and pulsing to moderate to fresh in the Gulf of Papagayo
beginning early Tue. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail S of
monsoon trough. Seas generated by a gap wind event in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec are expected to spread across the outer offshore
waters of El Salvador and Guatemala Tue and Tue night. Otherwise,
moderate seas in mixed SW and NW swell are expected over the
regional waters through at least the middle of the week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A high pressure system located N of area and the associated
ridge dominates the waters N of the monsoon trough/ITCZ and W of
110W. The most recent scatterometer data showed moderate to
locally fresh winds N of the ITCZ to about 20N and W of 110W,
while altimeter data showed seas of 6 to 8 ft over this region.
Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere including S of the
monsoon trough/ITCZ. Seas of 4 to 7 ft are noted across the
remainder of the open waters, dominated by long period NW swell.

For the forecast, high pressure will remain in control of the
weather pattern across the waters N of the monsoon trough/ITCZ
and W of 110W through at least the middle of the week, supporting
moderate to locally fresh trade winds. Mainly gentle to moderate
winds are expected elsewhere, except locally fresh S of the
monsoon trough and W of 100W at times. Rough seas will persist in
the western waters through Mon. Moderate seas are expected
elsewhere over the eastern Pacific. Looking ahead, a new set of
long period NW swell is forecast to reach the NW part of the
forecast region by the middle of the week, building seas to 8 to
9 ft.

$$
GR