104
AXPZ20 KNHC 232044
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Nov 23 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from near 10N80W to 09N91W to 11N121W.
The ITCZ continues from 11N121W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 05N to 09N between 88W and
102W and from 07N to 10N W of 125W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure extending from Gulf of Mexico and into the
northwestern Caribbean has stopped building further south, allow
the pressure gradient between it and the monsoon trough to weaken
sufficient such that gales in the Gulf of Tehuantepec have ended.
However, strong N gap winds and seas of 11 ft continue. These
winds and seas will gradually diminish through Sun.

Elsewhere, a broad ridge, anchored by a 1019 mb high pressure
centered near 26N125W dominates the offshore waters of Baja
California and waters W of 105W. This pattern is promoting gentle
to locally moderate winds across the Baja California offshore
waters where seas are 5 to 7 ft in NW swell north of 20N. Light
to gentle winds and seas of 4 to 5 ft in mixed swell, except for
1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of California, dominate the remainder of
the Mexican offshore waters.

For the forecast, strong N winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec
will gradually diminish through Sun. Elsewhere, the weak surface
ridge will remain in control of the weather pattern across the
area waters W of 105W through the middle of next week, supporting
gentle to locally moderate NW to N winds. The high pressure will
weaken through Mon as a weak cold front approaches the Baja
Norte offshore waters from the NW. Strong to near gale-force N
winds will return to Tehuantepec Mon night through Tue night
before diminishing.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate south winds continue across the offshore
waters of Colombia and Ecuador, where seas are 4 to 6 ft in mixed
swell. Elsewhere, light to gentle generally onshore winds
prevail S of 10N. Mostly gentle offshore winds are now across the
waters N of 10N, except fresh to locally strong NE winds
streaming offshore of the Papagayo area extending offshore to
near 88W .

For the forecast, offshore gap winds N of 10N will continue
through Sun, with fresh to strong NE to E winds expected across
the Papagayo region, as high pressure persists across the NW
Caribbean and northern Central America. Elsewhere, gentle to
locally moderate winds and moderate seas will prevail through
Tue. Cross equatorial SW swell is expected to move into the
regional waters Sun night, increasing seas to 8 ft between
Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, and 5 to 7 ft elsewhere early
Mon into early Wed. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds are expected
to develop between the Galapagos Islands and Colombia Wed.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Surface ridging dominates most of the N waters N of 10N and W of
105W, producing light to gentle anticyclonic flow. A stalling
cold front extends from 30N127W to 24N139W. Seas behind this
front are 8 to 10 ft in NW swell. Moderate NE to E trade winds
prevail between 10N and 20N W of 110W, where seas are 6 to 8 ft
in NW swell, with monsoonal winds of similar magnitude and
similar seas prevailing to the south.

For the forecast, the high pressure will drift SW and weaken
slightly through Sun, as the front becomes stationary and weakens.
NW swell accompanying the front will subside to 8 ft or less
tonight, before another front moves along about 30N across the NW
waters and meanders through Tue. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate
winds and moderate seas are expected through Tue.

$$
Konarik