372
AXPZ20 KNHC 312041
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Aug 31 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Kiko:
Tropical Storm Kiko is centered near 14.4N 124.0W at 31/2100 UTC,
moving west at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt.
Seas are peaking near 12 ft. Numerous moderate to strong
convection is noted from 13N to 15N between 123W and 126W.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is elsewhere from 07N to
17N between 120W and 127W. Kiko will maintain a general westward
motion across the eastern Pacific and move into the central
Pacific basin late this week. The system is forecast to
intensify, and reach hurricane intensity Tuesday.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Kiko NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

South of Southern Mexico:
A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms south of southern Mexico. An area of
low pressure is expected to form from this system within the next
day or two, and it is likely to become a tropical depression by
the middle of this week while moving west-northwestward or
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph just offshore of the southwestern
coast of Mexico. There is a medium chance for tropical formation
in the next 48 hours and a high chance for formation in the next
7 days. Regardless of development, expect an increase in winds
and seas off SW Mexico with this system.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 98W, from 04N northward,
moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Please see SPECIAL FEATURES
section above for more on this tropical wave and the possibility
of tropical cyclogenesis.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 12N95W to 14N117W. It
resumes from 11N128W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted from 04N to 08N east of 91W, from 07N
to 17N between 94W and 104W, and from 08N to 12N between 130W
and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see SPECIAL FEATURES above for information on the
potential of tropical cyclone formation off SW Mexico.

Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong thunderstorms
are noted within 180 nm of the coast of southern Mexico from
Guerrero to Oaxaca, associated with a tropical wave moving
through the area. Strong gusty and winds and rapidly building
seas are likely occurring near this activity. Outside of this
convection, fresh to strong winds prevail across this area, with
seas of 5 to 8 ft. Elsewhere, high pressure located NW of the
area extends a ridge southeastward to offshore of Baja Sur, with
a surface trough over the Gulf of California. The associated
pressure gradient is producing moderate NW winds across the Baja
waters north of Punta Eugenia, and gentle winds between Punta
Eugenia and the Revillagigedo Islands. Seas are 4 to 6 ft seas in
southerly swell across these waters. Light to gentle winds
prevail across the Gulf of California, with seas in the 1-3 ft
range, reaching 4 ft at the entrance of the Gulf. Light winds
prevail elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico.

For the forecast, high pressure will be centered NW of the area
through Tue, with associated ridge across the Baja California
waters. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure
and a trough over the Gulf of California will support moderate
NW to N winds across the Baja waters through early next week. A
tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms south of southern Mexico. An area of low
pressure is expected to form from this system within the next day
or two, and it is likely to become a tropical depression by the
middle of this week while moving west-northwestward or
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph just offshore of the southwestern
coast of Mexico. There is a medium chance for tropical formation
in the next 48 hours and a high chance of formation in the next 7
days. Regardless of development, expect increasing winds and
seas over the waters off SW Mexico through the middle of the
week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate winds are over the Papagayo region, with light to gentle
winds elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. South of the monsoon
trough, moderate winds prevail. SW swell is moving through the
Central and South American waters, with seas in the 6 to 7 ft
range, reaching 8 ft south and southeast of the Galapagos
Islands.

For the forecast, SW swell offshore of Ecuador and Colombia will
subside through Mon. Moderate gap winds are expected across the
Papagayo region through Mon, then will pulse to fresh speeds at
night through the middle of the week. Light to gentle winds will
prevail elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Moderate to fresh
S to SW winds are expected south of the monsoon trough through
the week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on
newly upgraded Tropical Storm Kiko.

Aside from Kiko, high pressure prevails over the waters N of
20N, anchored by a 1022 mb high centered north of the discussion
area near 36N136W. Outside of Kiko, moderate winds prevail
across the waters N of 10N and W of 120W. Light to gentle winds
are N of 10N and E of 120W. Moderate to fresh winds are found S
of 10N. Seas across the forecast waters are in the 4-7 ft range,
reaching 8 ft S of 10N between 100W and 110W.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Kiko will move to 14.3N 125.2W
Mon morning, 14.2N 126.9W Mon afternoon, 14.1N 128.5W Tue
morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 14.1N 130.2W Tue
afternoon, 14.0N 131.9W Wed morning, and 14.0N 133.7W Wed
afternoon. Kiko will change little in intensity as it moves to
near 14.0N 137.6W Thu afternoon. Elsewhere, S to SW swell over
the waters south of 10N will support rough seas south of 10N
between 100W and 120W.

$$
AL