034
AXPZ20 KNHC 310948
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed Dec 31 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0950 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning: Storm-force northerly winds
will continue in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through this morning,
supporting very rough seas as high as 16 ft. However, large seas
in excess of 8 ft will reach as far west as 102W this morning.
Afterward, gales will prevail through early Thu morning. Then,
northerly gap winds will gradually diminish to moderate to fresh
speeds by Fri morning. Marine interests transiting across or
near the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Wed should take the
necessary action to avoid these hazardous marine conditions.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 09N85W to 05N95W. The
ITCZ stretches from 05N95W to 13N122W to 06N140W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection extends from 08N to 24N
between 108W and 112W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A Storm Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please
refer to the Special Features section for details.

Fresh to locally strong NW to N winds are ongoing across the
Gulf of California due to the presence of a strong 1041 mb high
pressure over the Great Basin. Seas are 3 to 5 ft within these
wind speeds. Low pressure to the WNW of the Revillagigedo Islands
is causing fresh to locally strong SE winds across the offshore
waters of Baja California along with scattered moderate
convection. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds are present along
with slight to moderate seas mainly NW swell.

For the forecast, storm-force northerly winds will continue in
the Gulf of Tehuantepec through this morning, supporting very
rough seas as high as 16 ft. Afterward, gales will prevail
through early Thu morning. Then, northerly gap winds will
gradually diminish to moderate to fresh speeds by Fri morning.
Fresh to locally strong NW winds and moderate seas in the Gulf of
California will diminish to moderate or weaker winds this
morning. Fresh to strong SE winds across the Baja California
offshore waters will lift N of Punta Eugenia this afternoon as a
low pressure W of the offshores moves northward. Showers and
thunderstorms across the Baja offshores will also dissipate
today. Otherwise, long period NW swell may bring rough seas to
waters offshore Baja California Norte Sun through early next
week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Strong high pressure building N of the region is supporting
fresh to strong northeast to east winds in the Gulf of Papagayo
and downwind to near 89W. Seas of 5 to 7 ft are within these
winds. Elsewhere, mainly gentle winds and slight to moderate seas
prevail, except for moderate N winds in the Gulf of Panama.

For the forecast, high pressure N of the area will continue to
support fresh to strong NE to E winds in the Gulf of Papagayo
with moderate to rough seas into Fri night. Winds will pulse
nightly to moderate to locally fresh in the Gulf of Panama
through Fri. Rough seas generated by storm-force winds in the
Tehuantepec region will propagate across the offshore forecast
waters of Guatemala and El Salvador through tonight. Light to
gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are expected elsewhere
through the weekend.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1008 mb surface low is centered near 21N126W. A surface trough
extends NE from the low to southern California, while another
arches SW to 16N131W. East of the low, a broad region of
numerous moderate to isolated strong convection extends from 08N
to 30N between 106W and 120W. Moderate or weaker winds are
elsewhere along with moderate seas, except N of 15N and W of 131W
where seas are rough to 9 ft due to large mixed swell.

For the forecast, as the low pressure moves northward and weakens
today, winds and seas will diminish. A cold front is forecast to
reach the far NW tonight and move eastward across the waters
north of 25N into Thu. A reinforcing front will follow later on
Thu and with the main front by Thu evening from 30N134W to
24N140W. Fresh to strong winds are expected on both sides of the
front. Significant NW swell will follow the front, bringing rough
to very roughly seas.

$$
Ramos