290
AXPZ20 KNHC 282134
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Jun 28 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis along 95.5W north of 03N to the
Gulf of Tehuantepec region moving westward at 10 to 15 kt.
Scattered moderate to isolated convection is west of the
wave to 101W from 07N to 10N.

A tropical wave has its axis along 122W from 03N to 19N, moving
westward at around 15 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong
convection is west of the wave to 130W from 09N to 15N, and east
of the wave to 115W from 10N to 18N. Latest scatterometer data
indicates moderate to fresh east to southeast winds east of the
wave axis to near 110W from 12N to 19N. Seas with these winds are
5 to 7 ft.

The tropical wave that was previously along 139W is weakening
west of 140W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 1006 mb low pressure in
northwest Colombia west-southwestward to across the border
between Costa Rica and Panama, and continues to the coast at
09N84W and to 07N100W to 11N113W to 10N122W and to 07N129W,
where it transitions to the ITCZ to 05N135W and to beyond
05N140W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is
within 180 nm south of the ITCZ between 130W-139W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is from 05N to 10N between
113W-118W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm south
of the trough between 105W-106W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The pressure difference between high pressure ridging over the Gulf
of America and relatively lower pressure in southeastern Mexico,
southward to the monsoon trough over the eastern Pacific is
supporting fresh to strong gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
Seas up to 8 ft prevail with these winds. In the Gulf of
California, moderate to fresh southwest winds are over the
northern portion from 30N to 31N along with seas of 2 to 4 ft.
The pressure gradient is slightly tighter over that portion of
the Gulf due to the presence of the diurnal trough. Seas over
the rest of the Gulf are also 3 to 4 ft, except at the entrance,
where higher seas of 4 to 6 ft in long-period south to southwest
swell are present. Latest scatterometer satellite data passes
generally reveal light to gentle winds are elsewhere over the
Mexican offshore waters along with seas of 4 to 6 ft in long-
period south to southwest swell.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong north to northeast gap
winds will continue pulsing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region
through late Mon morning, These winds will begin to pulse again
at fresh to strong speeds nightly starting Mon night. Elsewhere,
winds and seas across the Mexican offshore waters are expected
to remain rather calm into the early part of the week. Northwest
swell with seas to 8 ft is expected to move into the far northern
waters off Baja California Norte beginning tonight, and linger
into midweek.

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong northeast gap winds are across the Gulf of
Papagayo and off the southern coast of Nicaragua. Afternoon
altimeter satellite data indicates seas of 8 to 9 ft downstream
of these winds, roughly from 08N to 11N between 87W and 95W.
Moderate or weaker winds are elsewhere. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in
long-period southerly swell over the equatorial waters as
detected by multiple altimeter satellite data passes, and 5 to 6
ft in long-period southwest swell across the remainder of the
offshore waters.

For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds and mostly moderate
seas will continue in the Gulf of Papagayo region well into the
upcoming week. Seas generated by these winds will, at times,
spread downstream well away from the Gulf. Farther south,
southerly swell moving into the equatorial waters will continue
through the early part of the week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Broad ridging dominates the remainder of the area north of
about 20N. The moderate pressure gradient between the ridge and
lower pressure in the vicinity of the monsoon trough/ITCZ is
supporting moderate to fresh trades over most of the area north
of 10N and west of 119W. Seas are 6 to 8 ft west of 112W due to
the combination of long-period north to northeast swell with
trade wind generated waves. To the south, southeast swell is
inducing seas up to 10 ft south of 02N between 87W and 120W as
noted in various altimeter satellite data passes from the
overnight and early morning hours. Elsewhere, winds are mostly
moderate or weaker. Seas are 5 to 7 ft primarily in northwest
to north swell, except mixed with east swell west of 129W.

For the forecast, the tropical wave near 122W is forecast to
undergo possible gradual development during the next few days and
a tropical depression could form by the middle of this week
while the system moves generally westward then northwestward.
Environmental conditions are forecast to become less conducive
for development by late week as the system will be encountering
increasing shear and cooler waters. Outside of this system,
little change in winds are expected for the next several days.
Southerly swell moving through the far south- central waters is
expected to begin to decay during the early part of the week.

$$
Aguirre