315
AXPZ20 KNHC 131455
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Oct 13 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1450 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 12N87W to 1008 mb low pressure
near 12N92W to 09N127W. The ITCZ extends from 09N127W to beyond
09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 12N to 14N
between 93W and 95W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A small area of 1000 mb low pressure persists over the northern-
most Gulf of California near 31N114W, along a trough reaching
from the Colorado River valley into the Gulf of California. This
pattern is supporting fresh to even strong SW winds across the
northern Gulf waters. To the west, the gradient between this low
and high pressure to the northwest is leading to moderate NW
winds offshore Baja California Norte, with related NW swell
generating seas of up to 9 ft impacting the waters around
Guadalupe Island and the offshore areas beyond 90 nm off Baja
California Norte. Elsewhere over Mexican offshore waters, light
to gentle winds and moderate seas dominate.

For the forecast, the low pressure over the northern Gulf of
California will support fresh to strong SW winds over the
northern Gulf into early Tue. Northerly swell west of Baja
California Norte will decay through this evening, but build back
into the region Tue night into Wed in the wake of a weak cold
front moving into Baja California and the Gulf of California. To
the south, broad low pressure is developing off Guatemala. Little
development is expected over the next few days while the low
drifts to off southern Mexico, but strong northerly gap winds
will develop in the Gulf of Tehunatepec starting Tue. These
higher winds may eventually aide in environmental conditions that
are more conducive for tropical development of the low later in
the week. There is a medium chance that a tropical depression
forms while the system moves to offshore southern Mexico toward
the end of the week or this weekend.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate SW winds prevail with seas of 5 to 7 ft in SW
swell from Costa Rica to Guatemala, and 4 to 5 ft from Panamanian
offshore waters southward to Ecuador. A few thunderstorms are
active over the northern Gulf of Panama, off the Nicoya Peninsula
of northwest Costa Rica, and along the monsoon trough off
northwest Nicargua near 12N87W.

For the forecast, a broad low pressure is developing off of
Guatemala. Little development is expected over the next few days
while the low remains nearly stationary, but environmental
conditions area likely to become more conducive for tropical
development of the low later in the week. There is a medium
chance that a tropical depression forms while the system moves N
or NW offshore Guatemala or southern Mexico toward the end of the
week or this weekend.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Broad ridging prevails north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, with
moderate to locally fresh N winds across these waters. Seas are
5 to 7 ft in this region, except for 8 to 9 ft north of 25N
between 115W and 125W, where N swell is propagating. Elsewhere ,gentle
to moderate southerly winds are south of the ITCZ along with
seas of 5 to 7 ft. Moderate south to southwest winds and seas of
5 to 7 ft are south of the monsoon trough.

For the forecast, the swell north of 25N between 115W and 125W
will subside late today. A cold front will move southeastward
across the waters north of 20N Tue through Thu. A new round of 8
to 10 ft swell will follow the front over the waters north of 25N
tonight through Wed night. Looking ahead, high pressure building
north of the area behind the front will support moderate fresh
NE winds north of 10N and west of 130W Thu and Fri. Farther
south, weak low pressure is likely to form along the monsoon
trough between 115W and 120W through Wed.

$$
Christensen