123
AXPZ20 KNHC 211930
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Aug 21 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1930 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 97W, north of 03N, moving
west at 10 to 15 kt. Nearby convection is described below in the
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section. An area of low pressure is likely to
form this weekend off the coast of southwestern Mexico in
association with this wave. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for some gradual development of this system, and a
tropical depression could form during the early or middle
portions of next week while it moves generally west-northwestward
at 10 to 15 mph well off the coast of Mexico. There is a medium
chance for development in the next 7 days.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 111W, north of 05N, moving
west at 10 kt. Nearby convection is described below in the
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 128W, from 04N to 17N,
moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Nearby convection is described below
in the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N85W to 13N111W to 12N140W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection noted from 05N
to 11N between 78W and 90W, and from 07N to 14N between 92W and
101W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 25N
between 100W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge extends from high pressure north of the area to the
Revillagigedo Islands, with a surface trough over the Gulf of
California. This pattern is supporting gentle to moderate NW
breezes and moderate seas off Baja California. Light to gentle
breezes and slight seas are noted elsewhere off southern Mexico.
Gentle winds and slight seas are over the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge west of
the Baja California peninsula and a trough over the Gulf of
California will support gentle to moderate NW winds with moderate
seas west of the Baja peninsula through early next week. Gentle
to moderate winds will develop in the Gulf of California early
next week. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas in SW swell
will persist across the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds dominate the offshore waters north of 05N
while gentle to moderate winds are noted south of 05N. Moderate
seas prevail across the discussion waters.

For the forecast, light to gentle winds will prevail across the
waters north of 05N through the weekend, except for moderate to
fresh winds pulsing in the Gulf of Papagayo at night starting
tonight. Gentle to moderate winds are expected south of 05N.
Cross- equatorial southerly swell will propagate across the
regional waters, keeping seas in the moderate range through Fri,
except in the lee of the Galapagos Islands where slight seas are
expected. Another round of large swell will move into the waters
off Ecuador and Colombia by late Fri, and reach the offshore
waters of Central America by Sun.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure prevails north of 20N. The pressure gradient
between this area of high pressure along with lower pressure
within the monsoon trough is supporting moderate to fresh trade
winds north of the monsoon trough to 22N and west of 125W. Seas
over these waters are in the 6-8 ft range. Gentle to moderate
winds, and seas of 4-7 ft, prevail elsewhere north of the monsoon
trough. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 6-7 ft, are south
of the monsoon trough and west of 130W. Gentle to moderate winds,
and combined seas of 6-8 ft in southerly swell, prevail
elsewhere south of the monsoon trough.

For the forecast, the ridge will remain in place through the
weekend with little change to current conditions expected.

$$
AL