842
AXPZ20 KNHC 240903
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue Jun 24 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N73W to 10.5N83W to low
pressure 1009 mb near 09N89.5W to 12N102W to 11.5N117W to
08N129W. The ITCZ continues from 08N129W to beyond 08N140W.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 05.5N to
15N east of 94.5W, and from 07N to 12.5N between 94.5W and 118W.
Widely scattered moderate convection is seen from 06N to 08N
between 121W and 138W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A broad ridge continues W of the region, extending from a 1034
mb high centered well northwest of the area near 38N148W to just
north of the Revillagigedo Islands. Recent satellite
scatterometer data showed moderate NW winds across the Baja
waters north of Cabo San Lazaro, with locally fresh winds along
the coastal waters near Punta Eugenia. Seas across this area are
4 to 6 ft in subsiding north swell, except to 7 ft north and
northwest of Isla Guadalupe. Farther south, gentle to locally
moderate NW to W winds were depicted in scatterometer data from
Cabo San Lazaro to near Cabo Corrientes. Locally fresh W to SW
winds continue to wrap around the southern end of the Baja
Peninsula and into the Gulf of California. Seas of 4 to 6 ft in
fading NW swell generally prevail across the waters between Cabo
San Lazaro and Revillagigedo Islands. A surface trough extends
from the northern Gulf of California through Baja California Sur
and to 23N109W. Recent satellite scatterometer data showed gentle
to locally moderate southerly winds through the full length of
the Gulf of California, with a few areas of moderate SW gap winds
across central portions, and fresh SW gap winds across northern
portions, where peak seas of 4 ft are occurring. Elsewhere slight
seas of 3 ft or less prevail through the Gulf. A weak pressure
gradient continues over the remainder of the Mexico waters and is
supporting gentle winds eastward to Chiapas, except for strong
northerly winds now spilling across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas
across these waters are 4 to 6 ft in mixed NW and S swell,
except to 8 ft in Tehuantepec. Scattered moderate to strong
thunderstorms continue to shift southwestward over the waters
within 120 nm of the coasts between San Blas and Acapulco, where
gusty winds and locally rough seas are occurring.

For the forecast, little change in the overall pressure pattern
is expected for the next several days across the region. Strong
northerly gap winds will continue across the Tehuantepec area
through Thu as low pressure develops to the west of Papagayo, and
slowly strengthens as it shifts south of Tehuantepec Wed through
Fri night. Winds may reach to near gale-force Tue night and Wed
night offshore of Tehuantepec, with seas building to 9 ft.
Otherwise, moderate to occasionally fresh NW winds are expected
across the Baja California waters through Thu as high pressure
continues to the northwest. Moderate to locally fresh S to SW
winds will pulse inside of the Gulf of California through
Thu.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Scattered moderate isolated strong convection continues across
the Central American offshore waters from the Gulf of Panama to
offshore of Costa Rica. A cluster of strong thunderstorms has
persisted for a few hours just offshore of Guatemala and Chiapas,
Mexico, associated with elongated low pressure across this area.
Satellite scatterometer data showed gusty winds to 30 kt with
this activity earlier tonight. Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds
persist across the Papagayo region and extend offshore to 91W,
and are feeding into a 1009 mb low pressure center near
09N89.5W, located across the eastern end of the elongated low
pressure. The 1009 mb low center is now being monitored for
possible tropical development. Fresh westerly monsoonal winds
and seas to 8 ft are occurring south of this low and extend
southward to 04N between 85W and 93W. Elsewhere, moderate to
fresh S to SW winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft in mixed SW and S
swell prevail south of the monsoon trough.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds will continue
across the Papagayo region through Wed as low pressure
gradually become better organized to the southwest, and
shifts slowly westward. The fresh to strong winds will expand
across the waters offshore of El Salvador and Guatemala late
Tue through Wed as the low moves south of those waters.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development
of this low pressure system, and a tropical depression is likely
to form by late this week or over the weekend while the system
moves slowly west-northwestward off the coast of southern
Mexico. There is a low chance of development within the next two
days, and a high chance within the next seven days.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Moderate to fresh N to NE winds continue north of 10N between
120W and 130W tonight, becoming mostly fresh NE winds N of 10N
and W of 130W, as a broad ridge persists over much of the
eastern Pacific, anchored by a 1034 mb high centered northwest of
the area near 38N148W. Seas of 6 to 7 ft in N swell prevail
offshore of Baja California, north of 20N and east of 128W.
Farther west, residual rough seas 7 to 8 ft, aided by locally
fresh trade winds, are noted from 09N to 24N west of 134W. South
of the monsoon trough, moderate to fresh S to SW winds are
occurring with seas of 5 to 7 ft.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds are
expected north of the monsoon trough and west of 120W through Thu
as high pressure continues to the northwest. Winds will diminish
slightly E of 130W on Wed as the high weakens. Seas north of 10N
will subside modestly through Thu. Elsewhere, mixed S and SE
swell will move through the equatorial waters over the next
several days, promoting rough seas to 8 ft south of 05N Tue
evening through late this week.

$$
Stripling